Tropical Storm Alberto

[Thunder44]

The center is devoid of deep convection, but it's getting tighter and better defined this afternoon on visible imagery. It appears almost stationary as well. I figure the convection well away of the center will continue to move to the NE and eventually die off. So we just have to see if any more convection forms around closer to the center again, to keep this storm alive through tomorrow. The dirnual max might help out tonight to fire off some convection.

[The_OD_42]

Yeah, we lost power here and it's pouring.. I have to drive to oldsmar to work

Gotta love Pasco and its wonderful power grid.
I'm surprised we haven't lost it yet here...oh wait, it always happens AFTER the storm. lol

[linkerweather]

I am heading back out but we lost 2 trees in our neighborhood. GUst about 50 or so. Sustained during that band around 30 to 35. I will be back into work tomorrow morning.

[O Town]

Here is their radar, and it looks like they just got pounded.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[Stratusxpeye]

Yeah, we lost power here and it's pouring.. I have to drive to oldsmar to work

Gotta love Pasco and its wonderful power grid.
I'm surprised we haven't lost it yet here...oh wait, it always happens AFTER the storm. lol

O yeah not just pasco but i have withlacooche so we loose power almost on a daily basis. Usually we loos it before it even storms.

[gatorcane]

I am heading back out but we lost 2 trees in our neighborhood. GUst about 50 or so. Sustained during that band around 30 to 35. I will be back into work tomorrow morning.

Wow Josh, incredible, nice to hear from you. Even though I moved from Clearwater to South Florida I still check your website for some of the maps you post.

[Rainband]

Hello Josh.

[wxman57]

Here's an animation I made of satellite/sfc obs from a few hours ago to now:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/albertoanim.gif

Note that the first picture is around 16Z when recon and the buoy and ship reported TS force winds in that squall about 220 miles from the center. The 2nd image is current. Buoy obs in that area are down to about 25 kts and the squalls are about 250 miles east of the center. Winds around the center itself are only about 15 kts.Just got a ship report from next to the center, here's the image showing the report:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/alberto24.gif

[gatorcane]

Looks like the heating of the day is causing some thunderstorm development across the peninsula....lots of reds and oranges along the I-4 corridor.

[Dean4Storms]

It is evident that the strongest winds are within the convective downbursts well to the east of the center.

[wxman57]

It is evident that the strongest winds are within the convective downbursts well to the east of the center.

Tampa is about 400 miles NE of the center. Tropical cyclone feeder bands can easily produce such wind gusts.

[Dean4Storms]

The Globals such as GFS, CMC, UKMET and NOGAPS at 12z are coming further north with the landfall, most into the Panhandle now.

[gatorcane]

The Globals such as GFS, CMC, UKMET and NOGAPS at 12z are coming further north with the landfall, most into the Panhandle now.

Can you post an image showing the shift in the models?

[O Town]

I am not finding any new model plots yet. I thought the 18Z came out around 2pm eastern time. 12Z are from this morning. Right?

[canetracker]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_01.gif

The latest model runs I can find are on the cluster map. The runs are at 17 and 18z.
The UKMET looks like it lost its mind!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here's an animation I made of satellite/sfc obs from a few hours ago to now:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/albertoanim.gif

Note that the first picture is around 16Z when recon and the buoy and ship reported TS force winds in that squall about 220 miles from the center. The 2nd image is current. Buoy obs in that area are down to about 25 kts and the squalls are about 250 miles east of the center. Winds around the center itself are only about 15 kts.Just got a ship report from next to the center, here's the image showing the report:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/alberto24.gif

one thing is for sure...this thing has not moved much!

[Dean4Storms]

Check em out.......


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[wxman57]

The Globals such as GFS, CMC, UKMET and NOGAPS at 12z are coming further north with the landfall, most into the Panhandle now.

All those models will focus on the upper level part of Alberto, the high-level steering currents. They won't do well with the remnant low-level swirl. So they'll accurately predict where the squalls will go, not necessarily the center of circulation.

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_01.gif

The latest model runs I can find are on the cluster map. The runs are at 17 and 18z.
The UKMET looks like it lost its mind!

I think it is the other runs that have lost their minds. They have the storm currently moving N or NNE when in reality it is either stationary or drifting W//WNW.

[gatorcane]

The Globals such as GFS, CMC, UKMET and NOGAPS at 12z are coming further north with the landfall, most into the Panhandle now.

All those models will focus on the upper level part of Alberto, the high-level steering currents. They won't do well with the remnant low-level swirl. So they'll accurately predict where the squalls will go, not necessarily the center of circulation.

WxMan is there a possibility of the swirl getting left behind in the GOM since it won't feel the trough come through the north?