Tropical Storm Alberto

[HouTXmetro]

I must be crazy but I see a circulation moving W/SW.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[Thunder44]

It could develop a new center under the convection too like Jeanne did. Jeanne was almost downgraded as its convection seperated from the center but redeveloped a LLC.

The current center is much too broad to reform another one under the convection.

[gatorcane]

I must be crazy but I see a circulation moving W/SW.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

Yes I see it - I think Alberto is kindaof just meandering now and drifting off to the west .... I guess getting ready to catch a ride on the trough

[Extremeweatherguy]

I must be crazy but I see a circulation moving W/SW.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

Yes I see it - I think Alberto is kindaof just meandering now and drifting off to the west .... I guess getting ready to catch a ride on the trough

it is not going to catch the ride that far south. According the the 11am discussion the storm needed to keep some vertical motion in place (which it had then) in order to catch the trof. In the last 2 hours, however, this has not moved north.

Here is an excerpt of that discussion:

THEREFORE...IF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS ABLE TO
MAINTAIN AT LEAST A PARTIALLY COHERENT VERTICAL STRUCTURE...IT
WOULD RESPOND TO THIS STEERING REGIME BY TURNING TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. HOWEVER...IF ALBERTO BECOMES EVEN MORE SEVERELY SHEARED...
IT WOULD MORE LIKELY RESPOND TO SHALLOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW
AND REMAIN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE WEAKENING.

[gatorcane]

I must be crazy but I see a circulation moving W/SW.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

Yes I see it - I think Alberto is kindaof just meandering now and drifting off to the west .... I guess getting ready to catch a ride on the trough

it is not going to catch the ride that far south. According the the 11am discussion the storm needed to keep some vertical motion in place (which it had then) in order to catch the trof. In the last 2 hours, however, this has not moved north.

True I agree but maybe the northward motion will resume, also have you all notice the little "vortices" spinning around the actual center. Check out the visible. I thought they were gone!

Look to the south of the center on this pic and you will see a vortice spinning up then fizzling out.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Rainband]

Rotflmao Thats why this storm is dying you guys keep trying to pull it west

[gatorcane]

Rotflmao Thats why this storm is dying you guys keep trying to pull it west

Looking at the radar loop here, Tampa area's most signicant rain from Alberto may have just passed by. All the rain off to the SW does not seem to be getting closer and is weakening. It's staying south of Ft Myers into Naples and points south and west.

Comon Tampa we are rooting for you to get some rain!!!

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... W&loop=yes

[wxman57]

Here's a new 1k res satellite and sfc obs plot. The eastern buoy that was reporting 353 kts earlier when recon passed by has dropped to 25 kts. No signs of TS force winds now. Looks like Alberto is now back to TD, though the NHC would most certainly not downgrade it yet.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/alberto21.gif

[robbielyn]

there is enough energy in the upper levels of the atmosphere due to the ts to cause widespread rain and thunderstorms. We don't need 4-8 inches all at one time anyways. About the tampa shield thing. I buy into that myself as a lighthearted joke and people need to understand we have good reason to feel this way. But this system was a dud from the get go. After last year we are excited to track again. Look at the threads on this system when it was just a wave. How many threads closed after 25 pages? The gulf is too dry and the westerlies too strong. This isn't really a surprise this time of year. Give it a couple more weeks and maybe the true blue rainy season will kick in. It has up to now been postponed. All this dry air just keeps finding its way down here. Haven't been that sticky at all.

[drezee]

Here's a new 1k res satellite and sfc obs plot. The eastern buoy that was reporting 353 kts earlier when recon passed by has dropped to 25 kts. No signs of TS force winds now. Looks like Alberto is now back to TD, though the NHC would most certainly not downgrade it yet.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/alberto21.gif

Hard to refute recon saying that it still has TS winds in the outer bands, but I understand your point.

Storm CYCLONE: Observed By AF #309
Storm #01 in Atlantic Ocean1
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 48KT (55.2mph 88.9km/h) In NE Quadrant At 16:31:10 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 43.2KT (49.7mph 80.0km/h) *
Misc Remarks: AX FL TEMP 24 C, 005 / 8NM SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT
Date/Time of Recon Report: Sunday, June 11, 2006 1:23:00 PM (Sun, 11 Jun 2006 17:23:00 UTC)
Position of the center: 24° 11' N 087° 35' W (24.2°N 87.6°W)

Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 20 KT (23MPH 37.0km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 091nm (104.65miles) From Center At Bearing 43 °
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 026KT (29.9mph 48.2km/h) From 166°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 090nm (103.5 miles) From Center At Bearing 040°
Minimum pressure: 1004mb (29.65in) -- Extrapolated
Eye Wall Characterization Not Reported
Eye Did Not Have A Definable Form or was not reported
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Wind Pressure
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 1500ft
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.02nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 10nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds

[wxman57]

Here's a new 1k res satellite and sfc obs plot. The eastern buoy that was reporting 353 kts earlier when recon passed by has dropped to 25 kts. No signs of TS force winds now. Looks like Alberto is now back to TD, though the NHC would most certainly not downgrade it yet.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/alberto21.gif

Hard to refute recon saying that it still has TS winds in the outer bands, but I understand your point.

Storm CYCLONE: Observed By AF #309
Storm #01 in Atlantic Ocean1
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 48KT (55.2mph 88.9km/h) In NE Quadrant At 16:31:10 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 43.2KT (49.7mph 80.0km/h) *
Misc Remarks: AX FL TEMP 24 C, 005 / 8NM SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT
Date/Time of Recon Report: Sunday, June 11, 2006 1:23:00 PM (Sun, 11 Jun 2006 17:23:00 UTC)
Position of the center: 24° 11' N 087° 35' W (24.2°N 87.6°W)

Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 20 KT (23MPH 37.0km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 091nm (104.65miles) From Center At Bearing 43 °
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 026KT (29.9mph 48.2km/h) From 166°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 090nm (103.5 miles) From Center At Bearing 040°
Minimum pressure: 1004mb (29.65in) -- Extrapolated
Eye Wall Characterization Not Reported
Eye Did Not Have A Definable Form or was not reported
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Wind Pressure
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 1500ft
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.02nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 10nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds

Those recon obs are several hours old. THe squalls have weakened considerably since then. It's unlikely that TS force winds remain in them. They're now over 300 miles from Alberto's center, by the way.

[gatorcane]

there is enough energy in the upper levels of the atmosphere due to the ts to cause widespread rain and thunderstorms. We don't need 4-8 inches all at one time anyways. About the tampa shield thing. I buy into that myself as a lighthearted joke and people need to understand we have good reason to feel this way. But this system was a dud from the get go. After last year we are excited to track again. Look at the threads on this system when it was just a wave. How many threads closed after 25 pages? The gulf is too dry and the westerlies too strong. This isn't really a surprise this time of year. Give it a couple more weeks and maybe the true blue rainy season will kick in. It has up to now been postponed. All this dry air just keeps finding its way down here. Haven't been that sticky at all.

well you should get some rain once the rainy season starts - which for some reason it has not this year. Usually starts in the beginning of June...

[HURAKAN]

Those recon obs are several hours old. THe squalls have weakened considerably since then. It's unlikely that TS force winds remain in them. They're now over 300 miles from Alberto's center, by the way.

That information is only minutes old!!!

[Rainband]

00
FXUS62 KTBW 111748
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
148 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006

...TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO INFLUENCING LOCAL WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT-TUE)...ASYMMETRIC ALBERTO EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE NORTHWARD TRACK BEFORE FINALLY TURNING NE THEN ENE NEXT 48
HRS. SEE NHC FORECAST TRACK AND DISCUSSION FOR EXACT SPECIFICS ON
STORM. WEST CENTRAL AND SW FL ALREADY FEELING THE EFFECTS. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN
FROM THE S ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHEARED E SIDE OF TROPICAL STORM
NEARLY 400 MILES TO THE WSW OF W COAST BEACHES. ONGOING WET
FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD HAVE KEPT CATEGORICAL POPS MOST
AREAS NEXT 36 HOURS THEN TAPERING OFF. THICK CLOUD COVER TO HOLD
TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE. WAVE FIELD GENERATE FROM STORM NOW IMPACTING
AREA BEACHS WITH WAVES OF AROUND 5 FEET REPORTED AND EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THRU THE EVENT. HAVE ISSUED HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR ENTIRE
COASTLINE. HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED WITH RAIN FALL TOTALS OF 4-8
INCHES AREAWIDE WITH LOCALLY HIGH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES THRU TUESDAY.

.

&&

.MARINE...TS ALBERTO PRODUCING 9 MB GRADIENT OVER E GULF
GENERATING 20-30 KT GUSTY WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 12-14 FT. SLOW N
MOVEMENT OF ALBERTO TO KEEP ROUGH AND ELEVATED WINDS SEAS AND SURF
OVER THE WATERS. SCA ALL OFFSHORE WATERS FOR WINDS AND SEAS AND
SCEC OVER TAMPA BAY. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE MON WITH SLIGHT
FORECASTED STRENGTHENING OF ALBERTO ALLOW TRACK TO PARALLEL W FL
COASTLINE. ON CURRENT FORECAST ALBERTO TO BE IN E GULF COASTAL WATERS
MON WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED AHEAD OF LANDFALL INTO TUE.

WHEN ALBERTO FINALLY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS
TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY AS
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER THE AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS AND VISIBILITY
LOCALLY LESS THAN A MILE WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA...AND SPREAD OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA BY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DEEP MOISTURE AND ABUNDANT RAIN FALL NEXT FEW DAYS.

[gatorcane]

well keep hoping for that rain. As of now I don't see as big of a rainfall event for West central Florida than I was seeing yesterday. Dry air is taking over now.

[wxman57]

That information is only minutes old!!!

Actually, no, the winds were observed at 1631Z, an hour and a half ago. Squalls have weakened considerably since then.

[spinfan4eva]

Looks like the first bands w/tropical storm force winds have entered the Tampa Bay area

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
139 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM...
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM.
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60
NM.
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM.

* UNTIL 245 PM EDT

* AT 139 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 34 KNOTS...FROM
32 MILES WEST OF INDIAN ROCKS BEACH TO DUNEDIN...MOVING NORTH AT 40
KNOTS.

AT 139 PM EDT...WIND GUSTS OF 36 KNOTS WERE REPORTED AT TAMPA BAY
AREA AIRPORTS. MARINERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the first bands w/tropical storm force winds have entered the Tampa Bay area

AT 139 PM EDT...WIND GUSTS OF 36 KNOTS WERE REPORTED AT TAMPA BAY
AREA AIRPORTS. MARINERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR.

Wow really - can others that live in the Tampa area confirm these observations?

[Rainband]

Yeah, we lost power here and it's pouring.. I have to drive to oldsmar to work

[wsoutherland]

Wanna know what's cool?

I'm just inland from the coast, lower end of Tampa Bay.
My house insurance was just cancelled a week or so ago.
Don't have new insurance yet.

Now THAT'S cool.