Tropical Storm Alberto

[gatorcane]

it actually appears to me to be drifting WESTERLY as of late and the thunderstorms that were trying to rap around toward the llC early this mornng have been pushed east. IT seems if everyone is secretly rooting for this thing to get stronger and push closer, since this would excite everyone more than a strom falling apart

but unless some change in steering currents in the south central gulf change (where the llC is actually centered) it appears to be ON ITS DEATH BED

yeah we are all corrupted and warped here at storm2k.

[jrod]

Latest satellite loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

I think Alberto is beginning to look a little more impressive. Cloud bands and light convection are wrapping around the center.

Are we looking at the same storm?

[mvtrucking]

but I thought if it moved west it would be sheared heavily...looking at this map; the shear to the west is light.

That makes no sense.

Actually, I have wondered the same thing that EWG is referring to. It's been stated that if the LLC moves west, it will be moving into increasing shear which will kill any chance for development. However, every shear map I've looked at this AM shows LESS shear to the west - in the path of the LLC. So I'm wondering myself - where is all the shear to the west that's 'supposed' to keep it from developing if the LLC continues to break away?

Not sure about shear but the dry air is very evident.(I'm sure that will have a bigger impact as to impeding any further development. This is only a guess)

[Rainband]

I don't care what it looks like. I just want the rain when it moves across florida.

[gatorcane]

I don't care what it looks like. I just want the rain when it moves across florida.

Hey Rainband remember Tampa has this great "deflector" shield when it comes to tropical systems in the GOM - lets see if somehow yet again you guys are spared.

I think it is quite possible that South Florida STILL ends up getting more rain than the Tampa area somehow as it is raining everywhere in South Florida right now.

It is simply amazing that Tampa misses everything.

[jrod]

Spared from a weak storm, LOL!


CFL needs this!

[GalvestonDuck]

what doe sschizophrenic mean?

Don't think it's "hearing voices".. LOL but I DO think it's got a "split" personality... and that's where I think it's going schizo.

A2K

A world of difference between the two - you mean multiple personality disorder.

[curtadams]

Look at this - Alberto has sucked the ITCZ dry! http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/jsl.jpg

[Rainband]

I don't care what it looks like. I just want the rain when it moves across florida.

Hey Rainband remember Tampa has this great "deflector" shield when it comes to tropical systems in the GOM - lets see if somehow yet again you guys are spared.

I think it is quite possible that South Florida STILL ends up getting more rain than the Tampa area somehow as it is raining everywhere in South Florida right now.

It is simply amazing that Tampa misses everything.

it's moving north. The rain that is. This was never anything to be spared from

[Cyclenall]

Chances of a major hurricane in my opinion are 0.000%

It's close to that but anything can happen at anytime so there will always be a % of some sort on all systems.

Chances of a hurricane are much less than 1%, chances of it stengthening is less than 20% IMO

Look here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... able?large

yeah we are all corrupted and warped here at storm2k.

Deep down most of us who has not been through a hurricane or tropical system want something to happen. Once you go through it that may change. That's what I think.

[gatorcane]

Chances of a major hurricane in my opinion are 0.000%

It's close to that but anything can happen at anytime so there will always be a % of some sort on all systems.

Chances of a hurricane are much less than 1%, chances of it stengthening is less than 20% IMO

Look here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... able?large

yeah we are all corrupted and warped here at storm2k.

Deep down most of us who has not been through a hurricane or tropical system want something to happen. Once you go through it that may change. That's what I think.

Okay chances of a major hurricane Alberto then are 0.1 x 10^-23%

[Extremeweatherguy]

If this thing keeps sitting there and does not get it's northward motion back on, it may very well miss the trof ("trough").

[gatorcane]

I don't care what it looks like. I just want the rain when it moves across florida.

Hey Rainband remember Tampa has this great "deflector" shield when it comes to tropical systems in the GOM - lets see if somehow yet again you guys are spared.

I think it is quite possible that South Florida STILL ends up getting more rain than the Tampa area somehow as it is raining everywhere in South Florida right now.

It is simply amazing that Tampa misses everything.

it's moving north. The rain that is. This was never anything to be spared from

Well it would appear the rain is knocking at your door - I think there is a 90% chance you will see some signficant rainfall out of this.

[wxman57]

I put my money on squalls continuing to move away from the exposed LLC and a gradual wind-down in the mid Gulf of the LLC. Squalls will hit Florida, but no LLC associated. Here's a McIdas image I just snapped:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/alberto20.gif

I bet you a quarter it will come close to the NHC track...

You're on. Only problem is the NHC can do whatever they want!

[jrod]

Chances of a major hurricane in my opinion are 0.000%

It's close to that but anything can happen at anytime so there will always be a % of some sort on all systems.

Chances of a hurricane are much less than 1%, chances of it stengthening is less than 20% IMO

Look here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... able?large

I bet on the next advisory those numbers are closer to mine.


Im the kind of nut who thinks small hurricanes are fun

[feederband]

I put my money on squalls continuing to move away from the exposed LLC and a gradual wind-down in the mid Gulf of the LLC. Squalls will hit Florida, but no LLC associated. Here's a McIdas image I just snapped:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/alberto20.gif

I bet you a quarter it will come close to the NHC track...

You're on. Only problem is the NHC can do whatever they want!

Yeah even if the track changes I still win..

[wxman57]

I put the VIS SAT loop on high speed from this morning and you can see the LLC drifting now slowly to the N-NW. Looks like the NHC track may verify. Also, starting to see increased convection on the northern semi-circle of the LLC and an overall more circular appearance - although its still broad. Some small banding features in the NE quad and TStorms appear to be getting pulled toward the center on the east side. It has a small window (looks like shear has abated somewhat) - maybe 12 hrs - to get slightly stronger. Its trying to mix out the dry air now which is a slow process given how much was (is) in the GOM.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at1_0.html

Great observations I would have to agree with this - lets see if it can get slightly stronger since the NHC says it could strengthen some still.

I would point out that both the NHC track and the models that forecast the LLC to move westward have an initial NW-N movement. Question is, what happens after the next 12-24 hours?

[wxman57]

I put my money on squalls continuing to move away from the exposed LLC and a gradual wind-down in the mid Gulf of the LLC. Squalls will hit Florida, but no LLC associated. Here's a McIdas image I just snapped:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/alberto20.gif

I bet you a quarter it will come close to the NHC track...

You're on. Only problem is the NHC can do whatever they want!

Yeah even if the track changes I still win..

Hmm, never thought of that!

[Rainband]

Well if it moves west it will die in the cone. Then there won't be a track

[gatorcane]

Well if it moves west it will die in the cone. Then there won't be a track

But he would still win though right?