Tropical Storm Alberto

[gatorcane]

I put the VIS SAT loop on high speed from this morning and you can see the LLC drifting now slowly to the N-NW. Looks like the NHC track may verify. Also, starting to see increased convection on the northern semi-circle of the LLC and an overall more circular appearance - although its still broad. Some small banding features in the NE quad and TStorms appear to be getting pulled toward the center on the east side. It has a small window (looks like shear has abated somewhat) - maybe 12 hrs - to get slightly stronger. Its trying to mix out the dry air now which is a slow process given how much was (is) in the GOM.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at1_0.html

Great observations I would have to agree with this - lets see if it can get slightly stronger since the NHC says it could strengthen some still.

[Audrey2Katrina]

I bet you a quarter it will come close to the NHC track...

2-bits, sounds like a safe bet

But I'm goin' with Wxman's prediction... this thing is schizophrenic.

A2K

[gatorcane]

I bet you a quarter it will come close to the NHC track...

2-bits, sounds like a safe bet

But I'm goin' with Wxman's prediction... this thing is schizophrenic.

A2K

what doe sschizophrenic mean?

[Extremeweatherguy]

I put the VIS SAT loop on high speed from this morning and you can see the LLC drifting now slowly to the N-NW. Looks like the NHC track may verify. Also, starting to see increased convection on the northern semi-circle of the LLC and an overall more circular appearance - although its still broad. Some small banding features in the NE quad and TStorms appear to be getting pulled toward the center on the east side. It has a small window (looks like shear has abated somewhat) - maybe 12 hrs - to get slightly stronger. Its trying to mix out the dry air now which is a slow process given how much was (is) in the GOM.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at1_0.html

actually it looks pretty stationary on that map...may be slightly NW.

[O Town]

Someone/thing with schizophrenia.

http://dictionary.reference.com/search?q=schizophrenia

[GalvestonDuck]

I bet you a quarter it will come close to the NHC track...

2-bits, sounds like a safe bet

But I'm goin' with Wxman's prediction... this thing is schizophrenic.

A2K

what doe sschizophrenic mean?

If someone things this thing is hearing voices, I've got news for 'em.

[gatorcane]

I put the VIS SAT loop on high speed from this morning and you can see the LLC drifting now slowly to the N-NW. Looks like the NHC track may verify. Also, starting to see increased convection on the northern semi-circle of the LLC and an overall more circular appearance - although its still broad. Some small banding features in the NE quad and TStorms appear to be getting pulled toward the center on the east side. It has a small window (looks like shear has abated somewhat) - maybe 12 hrs - to get slightly stronger. Its trying to mix out the dry air now which is a slow process given how much was (is) in the GOM.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at1_0.html

actually it looks pretty stationary on that map...may be slightly NW.

yeah it has slowed down some it looks like to me....anybody else agree?

[Audrey2Katrina]

what doe sschizophrenic mean?

Don't think it's "hearing voices".. LOL but I DO think it's got a "split" personality... and that's where I think it's going schizo.

A2K

[gatorcane]

what doe sschizophrenic mean?

Don't think it's "hearing voices".. LOL but I DO think it's got a "split" personality... and that's where I think it's going schizo.

A2K

Thanks lol

[Windtalker1]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html Zoom in on to the center...the last frame shows clouds wrapping around the center again along storms firing up around it also.....Am I seeing things?

[jrod]

Looks to me like the center of circulation is staying put and the convection is getting sheared off toward Florida, the storm is pretty much being cut in 2. The NHC mentioned this as a possibility and I think it is happening. Unless some convection starts firing around the center this will be short lived storm. Just my opinion, im no pro.

[saints63213]

looks like the dry air is lessening.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv.jpg

[ronjon]

The trof that is supposed to pick this thing up is going to slide SE from TX and amplify over the next 2-3 days. You can see why the eastern trof will amplify by looking upstream at the UL high out west which is pumping up due to that Pacific Ocean storm just offshore.


http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=10

[ronjon]

I put the VIS SAT loop on high speed from this morning and you can see the LLC drifting now slowly to the N-NW. Looks like the NHC track may verify. Also, starting to see increased convection on the northern semi-circle of the LLC and an overall more circular appearance - although its still broad. Some small banding features in the NE quad and TStorms appear to be getting pulled toward the center on the east side. It has a small window (looks like shear has abated somewhat) - maybe 12 hrs - to get slightly stronger. Its trying to mix out the dry air now which is a slow process given how much was (is) in the GOM.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at1_0.html

actually it looks pretty stationary on that map...may be slightly NW.

I did say drifting. Let's see if it picks up this afternoon.

[Cyclenall]

This is sooooo Arlene 2.0! Could it be a harbinger for things to come?

I agree with you, the first thing I thought of when I saw Alberto this morning is Arlene. We think the same, harbinger for things to come is what i'm getting from this.

Yeah - it's not Alberto that is the big worry, but what lies ahead...

Yeah I keep thinking about that. Alberto could have become a hurricane if it wasn't for that shear and dry air.

My thoughts on this system:

% chance of Tropical Storm Alberto becoming:

A Tropical Depression - 100%
A Tropical Storm - 100%
A Hurricane - 20%
A Major Hurricane - 0.3%
A Category 5 Hurricane - 0.003%

Alberto seems a tad bit better looking this morning even though it's naked on one side. Shear may be less in the next 12 hours but by how much? Then I have no idea. As for the air around it, it's not that bad east of it but I can't tell if that's from Alberto himself or not. Weird TS.

[gatorcane]

This is sooooo Arlene 2.0! Could it be a harbinger for things to come?

I agree with you, the first thing I thought of when I saw Alberto this morning is Arlene. We think the same, harbinger for things to come is what i'm getting from this.

Yeah - it's not Alberto that is the big worry, but what lies ahead...

Yeah I keep thinking about that. Alberto could have become a hurricane if it wasn't for that shear and dry air.

My thoughts on this system:

% chance of Tropical Storm Alberto becoming:

A Tropical Depression - 100%
A Tropical Storm - 100%
A Hurricane - 20%
A Major Hurricane - 0.3%
A Category 5 Hurricane - 0.003%

Alberto seems a tad bit better looking this morning even though it's naked on one side. Shear may be less in the next 12 hours but by how much? Then I have no idea. As for the air around it, it's not that bad east of it but I can't tell if that's from Alberto himself or not. Weird TS.

Chances of a major hurricane in my opinion are 0.000%

[cpdaman]

it actually appears to me to be drifting WESTERLY as of late and the thunderstorms that were trying to rap around toward the llC early this mornng have been pushed east. IT seems if everyone is secretly rooting for this thing to get stronger and push closer, since this would excite everyone more than a strom falling apart

but unless some change in steering currents in the south central gulf change (where the llC is actually centered) it appears to be ON ITS DEATH BED

[jrod]

Chances of a hurricane are much less than 1%, chances of it stengthening is less than 20% IMO

[Extremeweatherguy]

Latest satellite loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

I think Alberto is beginning to look a little more impressive. Cloud bands and light convection are wrapping around the center.

[jrod]

And chances of it weakening/dissapating greater than 50%