TS Alberto Recon Reports

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#461 Postby WindRunner » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:00 am

Forgot to post this one . . . but I'll post it now as the next set is late coming in.

Image
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#462 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:02 am

Interesting that the NHC says (in their latest Alberto discussion) that wind shear is forecsast to only increase over the next few days. They also say that if wind shear increases, then a westerly track (of an exposed low-level swirl) is more likely. Then they forecast continued northeast movement to Florida but over a day slower. They're severely hedging now. Just couldn't bring themselves to do a 180-degree track reversal.

But since the squalls ARE basically the storm, and they are moving into Florida, at least Florida residents wiill know to watch out for rain the next few days. I think that by tomorrow all that'll be left is a remnant swirl in the mid Gulf with 15-25 kt winds and no squalls.
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#463 Postby WindRunner » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:08 am

Still no recon data in since 1445Z (1045EDT) . . .
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#464 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:14 am

956
SXXX50 KNHC 111500
AF309 0201A CYCLONE HDOB 33 KNHC
1445. 2332N 08708W 01524 0005 200 027 172 170 027 01573 0000000000
1446 2333N 08707W 01522 0004 193 029 170 170 029 01571 0000000000
1446. 2333N 08705W 01525 0004 195 027 174 172 027 01573 0000000000
1447 2334N 08703W 01525 0004 197 026 174 174 027 01573 0000000000
1447. 2335N 08701W 01524 0005 197 028 168 168 029 01573 0000000000
1448 2336N 08700W 01522 0005 197 026 174 166 026 01572 0000000000
1448. 2337N 08658W 01525 0006 190 026 170 168 027 01575 0000000000
1449 2338N 08657W 01536 0007 192 027 168 168 029 01587 0000000000
1449. 2339N 08655W 01528 0008 194 027 160 160 028 01580 0000000000
1450 2339N 08652W 01522 0010 193 027 156 156 028 01576 0000000000
1450. 2340N 08650W 01525 0011 200 028 174 162 029 01581 0000000000
1451 2341N 08648W 01523 0012 194 027 170 158 028 01579 0000000000
1451. 2342N 08646W 01524 0012 191 027 174 158 028 01580 0000000000
1452 2343N 08644W 01522 0011 197 028 170 162 029 01578 0000000000
1452. 2344N 08642W 01526 0012 199 027 170 154 027 01582 0000000000
1453 2345N 08640W 01525 0012 198 027 168 142 028 01580 0000000000
1453. 2345N 08637W 01524 0012 199 028 170 144 029 01580 0000000000
1454 2346N 08635W 01523 0013 197 027 170 152 027 01580 0000000000
1454. 2347N 08633W 01525 0013 197 027 170 152 027 01582 0000000000
1455 2348N 08631W 01522 0013 195 029 170 142 029 01579 0000000000
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#465 Postby WindRunner » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:17 am

Well, I guess the data is going to be running on somewhat of a delay now. They're now two sets behind.
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#466 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:18 am

473
SXXX50 KNHC 111513
AF309 0201A CYCLONE HDOB 35 KNHC
1505. 2402N 08550W 01524 0022 188 026 168 166 026 01591 0000000000
1506 2402N 08548W 01524 0023 187 027 164 164 028 01591 0000000000
1506. 2402N 08547W 01524 0023 187 026 166 166 026 01592 0000000000
1507 2403N 08545W 01523 0024 188 028 168 162 029 01591 0000000000
1507. 2403N 08543W 01411 0019 192 027 174 168 029 01473 0000000000
1508 2403N 08541W 01206 0008 192 027 184 174 028 01257 0000000000
1508. 2404N 08539W 01000 0007 190 028 196 186 028 01035 0000000000
1509 2404N 08537W 00795 5010 187 029 208 194 029 00812 0000000000
1509. 2404N 08536W 00590 5028 186 029 220 210 029 00590 0000000000
1510 2405N 08534W 00447 5027 180 027 230 230 028 00434 0000000000
1510. 2405N 08532W 00426 5028 181 024 230 230 025 00410 0000000100
1511 2405N 08530W 00427 5027 181 026 228 228 027 00412 0000000100
1511. 2405N 08529W 00426 5027 167 027 226 226 028 00411 0000000100
1512 2406N 08527W 00428 5026 168 027 228 228 028 00414 0000000100
1512. 2406N 08525W 00427 5026 169 028 230 228 028 00413 0000000000
1513 2406N 08524W 00426 5025 166 028 230 226 029 00413 0000000000
1513. 2407N 08522W 00428 5025 168 028 230 228 029 00416 0000000000
1514 2407N 08520W 00426 5025 166 028 230 224 028 00414 0000000000
1514. 2407N 08519W 00427 5024 169 028 230 226 028 00416 0000000000
1515 2407N 08517W 00426 5024 169 028 230 226 028 00415 0000000000
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#467 Postby WindRunner » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:18 am

Of course, now it's up to date.


Give me a second to go find the missing set.

EDIT: Shoot, never mind. Not where I thought it would be.
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#468 Postby WindRunner » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:22 am

Here's the map, just about to the convection. Sat pic's about an hour old, from 1415Z.

Image
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#469 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:28 am

386
SXXX50 KNHC 111523
AF309 0201A CYCLONE HDOB 36 KNHC
1515. 2408N 08516W 00427 5023 168 028 230 224 028 00417 0000000000
1516 2408N 08514W 00427 5023 170 027 230 224 028 00417 0000000000
1516. 2408N 08512W 00428 5022 169 026 230 230 027 00419 0000000000
1517 2409N 08511W 00424 5022 164 026 230 228 027 00415 0000000000
1517. 2409N 08509W 00429 5021 168 027 230 230 029 00421 0000000000
1518 2409N 08507W 00425 5022 172 025 230 230 026 00416 0000000000
1518. 2409N 08506W 00426 5021 171 027 230 226 027 00417 0000000000
1519 2410N 08504W 00428 5021 172 028 230 224 030 00420 0000000000
1519. 2410N 08502W 00426 5020 170 031 228 226 032 00418 0000000000
1520 2410N 08501W 00427 5019 165 033 222 222 034 00420 0000000000
1520. 2411N 08459W 00427 5018 163 034 222 222 035 00421 0000000000
1521 2411N 08457W 00427 5018 161 033 220 220 033 00422 0000000000
1521. 2411N 08456W 00426 5017 158 033 220 220 035 00421 0000000000
1522 2411N 08454W 00428 5018 156 036 218 218 037 00423 0000000000
1522. 2412N 08453W 00426 5017 159 038 216 216 040 00421 0000000000
1523 2412N 08451W 00427 5016 160 040 216 216 040 00423 0000000000
1523. 2412N 08449W 00427 5015 160 039 216 216 040 00424 0000000000
1524 2412N 08448W 00427 5015 164 039 216 216 040 00425 0000000000
1524. 2413N 08446W 00426 5014 163 036 216 216 037 00424 0000000000
1525 2413N 08445W 00428 5014 164 032 216 216 033 00427 0000000000
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#470 Postby WindRunner » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:31 am

Image

Definately in the convection now. This is the furthest east they've been on this mission. Maybe heading towards Florida for whatever reason, like they're out of gas or something.
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#471 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:34 am

WindRunner wrote:Definately in the convection now. This is the furthest east they've been on this mission. Maybe heading towards Florida for whatever reason, like they're out of gas or something.


I remember last year when they were going to investigate Rita that they had to stop in Key West I think because of mechanical problems.
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#472 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:38 am

640
SXXX50 KNHC 111533
AF309 0201A CYCLONE HDOB 37 KNHC
1525. 2413N 08443W 00427 5013 165 030 218 218 032 00426 0000000000
1526 2414N 08441W 00427 5012 158 039 212 212 040 00427 0000000000
1526. 2414N 08440W 00428 5013 159 039 202 202 041 00428 0000000000
1527 2414N 08438W 00425 5014 151 043 186 186 044 00423 0000000000
1527. 2414N 08437W 00426 5015 149 044 188 188 045 00424 0000000000
1528 2415N 08435W 00429 5013 150 041 192 192 044 00429 0000000000
1528. 2415N 08434W 00426 5013 150 040 186 186 041 00426 0000000000
1529 2415N 08432W 00425 5013 148 039 186 186 041 00424 0000000000
1529. 2415N 08431W 00427 5013 146 040 194 194 041 00427 0000000000
1530 2416N 08429W 00425 5012 145 040 194 194 040 00426 0000000000
1530. 2416N 08428W 00427 5011 149 040 188 188 041 00429 0000000000
1531 2416N 08426W 00427 5009 148 041 188 188 041 00430 0000000000
1531. 2416N 08425W 00428 5009 150 040 190 190 041 00431 0000000000
1532 2417N 08423W 00378 5011 148 040 204 204 042 00380 0000000000
1532. 2417N 08422W 00295 5016 146 039 216 216 040 00291 0000000000
1533 2417N 08420W 00302 5016 146 039 218 218 041 00298 0000000000
1533. 2417N 08419W 00302 5016 147 040 220 220 040 00299 0000000000
1534 2418N 08417W 00300 5015 148 040 220 220 040 00298 0000000000
1534. 2418N 08416W 00301 5014 149 039 220 220 040 00300 0000000000
1535 2418N 08414W 00302 5013 150 040 220 220 041 00300 0000000000
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#473 Postby WindRunner » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:43 am

Image

They're still heading that way, but I don't know what they're doing as they just descended again, now down below 1000ft.
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#474 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:50 am

682
SXXX50 KNHC 111543
AF309 0201A CYCLONE HDOB 38 KNHC
1535. 2418N 08413W 00301 5013 149 038 216 216 039 00300 0000000000
1536 2419N 08411W 00301 5013 147 039 216 216 039 00300 0000000000
1536. 2419N 08410W 00301 5013 147 039 216 216 040 00300 0000000000
1537 2419N 08408W 00302 5013 149 040 216 216 040 00301 0000000000
1537. 2419N 08407W 00301 5013 150 040 216 216 040 00301 0000000000
1538 2420N 08405W 00302 5012 150 040 214 214 040 00302 0000000000
1538. 2420N 08404W 00301 5011 150 039 212 212 040 00303 0000000000
1539 2420N 08402W 00301 5011 151 039 212 212 039 00303 0000000000
1539. 2420N 08401W 00302 5010 152 040 212 212 041 00305 0000000000
1540 2421N 08359W 00300 5010 151 040 212 212 041 00302 0000000000
1540. 2421N 08358W 00302 5010 152 039 210 210 039 00305 0000000000
1541 2421N 08356W 00300 5010 151 039 206 206 040 00302 0000000000
1541. 2421N 08355W 00301 5009 152 040 212 212 041 00304 0000000000
1542 2422N 08353W 00302 5009 153 041 212 212 042 00305 0000000000
1542. 2422N 08352W 00302 5009 153 041 214 214 042 00304 0000000000
1543 2422N 08350W 00301 5009 153 041 214 214 042 00304 0000000000
1543. 2422N 08349W 00299 5009 153 042 216 212 042 00303 0000000000
1544 2423N 08347W 00302 5008 154 041 216 210 042 00306 0000000000
1544. 2423N 08346W 00301 5008 154 041 218 208 042 00305 0000000000
1545 2423N 08344W 00302 5007 154 041 222 206 041 00307 0000000000

I think they're going to Key West to refuel and get back to Biloxi, or refuel and wait until the next RECON.
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#475 Postby WindRunner » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:51 am

Image

Definately looks like they are heading for Key West. Been picking up FL winds around 40kts for a solid 20 minutes though, definately a good sign of the wind field's size.
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#476 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jun 11, 2006 10:53 am

Thanks for tracing the line, it looks better.
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#477 Postby Thunder44 » Sun Jun 11, 2006 11:00 am

Perhaps they are just trying the measure the size of the wind field for TS force winds, since they may be issuing TS Watches this afternoon.
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#478 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jun 11, 2006 11:02 am

073
SXXX50 KNHC 111555
AF309 0201A CYCLONE HDOB 39 KNHC
1545. 2423N 08342W 00300 5006 154 040 226 204 041 00306 0000000000
1546 2423N 08341W 00301 5006 152 040 224 204 040 00308 0000000000
1546. 2424N 08339W 00301 5006 154 040 224 206 042 00308 0000000000
1547 2424N 08338W 00301 5005 154 041 224 204 043 00308 0000000000
1547. 2424N 08336W 00301 5004 155 040 222 212 041 00309 0000000000
1548 2424N 08335W 00302 5004 157 039 222 208 040 00311 0000000000
1548. 2425N 08333W 00301 5003 158 038 220 212 040 00310 0000000000
1549 2425N 08332W 00316 5002 159 039 220 216 040 00326 0000000000
1549. 2425N 08330W 00394 0003 160 042 216 206 042 00410 0000000000
1550 2425N 08329W 00410 0005 162 043 214 206 043 00428 0000000000
1550. 2426N 08327W 00393 0004 163 042 216 208 043 00410 0000000000
1551 2426N 08325W 00397 0004 163 043 218 200 045 00414 0000000000
1551. 2426N 08324W 00397 0004 162 042 216 202 044 00414 0000000000
1552 2426N 08322W 00395 0005 161 042 218 206 042 00413 0000000000
1552. 2427N 08321W 00397 0005 162 042 216 210 043 00414 0000000000
1553 2427N 08319W 00396 0005 160 043 216 202 043 00414 0000000000
1553. 2427N 08317W 00396 0006 161 042 216 202 044 00415 0000000000
1554 2427N 08316W 00396 0006 160 043 218 198 044 00415 0000000000
1554. 2428N 08314W 00397 0007 158 040 216 204 042 00417 0000000000
1555 2428N 08313W 00396 0007 161 040 218 204 041 00416 0000000000

That's very far from the center!
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#479 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Jun 11, 2006 11:03 am

Thunder44 wrote:Perhaps they are just trying the measure the size of the wind field for TS force winds, since they may be issuing TS Watches this afternoon.


Maybe!!!
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#480 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Jun 11, 2006 11:06 am

or with that 43 knots...a TS warning?
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