TS Alberto Recon Reports

[HURAKAN]

286
SXXX50 KNHC 111423
AF309 0201A CYCLONE HDOB 30 KNHC
1415. 2247N 08908W 00426 5039 302 023 230 222 024 00399 0000000000
1416 2245N 08908W 00432 5039 298 025 230 218 025 00405 0000000000
1416. 2246N 08905W 00423 5039 294 023 230 222 023 00397 0000000000
1417 2246N 08904W 00454 5042 295 022 226 218 023 00429 0000000000
1417. 2247N 08902W 00631 5041 297 020 214 208 021 00618 0000000000
1418 2248N 08901W 00820 5023 292 021 196 196 022 00824 0000000000
1418. 2249N 08859W 01000 5012 294 020 188 188 021 01016 0000000000
1419 2249N 08856W 01177 5006 286 015 184 184 017 01213 0000000000
1419. 2250N 08854W 01352 0003 281 015 174 174 016 01399 0000000000
1420 2251N 08852W 01494 0012 302 016 170 170 017 01551 0000000000
1420. 2252N 08850W 01523 0014 303 017 168 168 018 01581 0000000000
1421 2253N 08848W 01523 0013 310 018 170 170 019 01581 0000000000
1421. 2254N 08846W 01524 0012 309 018 170 170 018 01581 0000000000
1422 2254N 08844W 01526 0011 293 018 170 170 020 01582 0000000000
1422. 2255N 08842W 01522 0012 307 017 172 166 018 01579 0000000000
1423 2256N 08840W 01524 0011 306 017 170 160 018 01579 0000000000
1423. 2257N 08838W 01525 0010 302 016 176 160 017 01579 0000000000
1424 2258N 08836W 01524 0009 297 017 176 156 017 01577 0000000000
1424. 2259N 08834W 01524 0009 296 018 172 156 019 01577 0000000000
1425 2300N 08832W 01524 0009 296 019 176 158 019 01577 0000000000

[wxman57]

Did I miss something? Has the NHC called it Alberto now?

[BreinLa]

No wxman they have not

[HURAKAN]

Did I miss something? Has the NHC called it Alberto now?

AT 11 AM EDT!!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

10AM CDT advisory should be out any time now!

[Air Force Met]

Did I miss something? Has the NHC called it Alberto now?

12 z models came out with Alberto...and Alberto up at NRL...

plus all sorts of 50 knots at flight level.

[WindRunner]

Did I miss something? Has the NHC called it Alberto now?

Models initiated it at 40kts, and with a name. NRL also had name about 3 minutes after that.




Strange angle to turn around at. Don't know if they are heading into convection or curving around for another fix.

[wxman57]

Did I miss something? Has the NHC called it Alberto now?

12 z models came out with Alberto...and Alberto up at NRL...

plus all sorts of 50 knots at flight level.

That pretty much means NHC will call it Alberto shortly, then. Quesiton is, what track will they use? Low level west or upper level to Florida..

[Air Force Met]

Did I miss something? Has the NHC called it Alberto now?

12 z models came out with Alberto...and Alberto up at NRL...

plus all sorts of 50 knots at flight level.

That pretty much means NHC will call it Alberto shortly, then. Quesiton is, what track will they use? Low level west or upper level to Florida..

Official now!

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
1500Z SUN JUN 11 2006

[Extremeweatherguy]

Advisory just out! Surprisingly this has winds of 45mph (not 40)!

[Ivanhater]

Advisory just out! Surprisingly this has winds of 45mph (not 40)!

what the heck!, this thing is throwing me for a loop

[Extremeweatherguy]

they are still going with the FL track for now...it better start turning soon then!

Current movement = NW

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/image ... 1_cone.png

[Ivanhater]

they are still going with the FL track for now...it better start turning soon then!

Current movement = NW

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/image ... 1_cone.png

ya, I bet you they are not confident in that track at all

[Extremeweatherguy]

Historically, at Alberto's current position, a turn east would be rare. Here is a historical map:

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/image ... _climo.gif

[WindRunner]

Advisory just out! Surprisingly this has winds of 45mph (not 40)!

That's what 51kt FL winds will convert to at .75 or .8, either one will give 40kts.

[Extremeweatherguy]

they are still going with the FL track for now...it better start turning soon then!

Current movement = NW

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/image ... 1_cone.png

ya, I bet you they are not confident in that track at all

yeah, their discussion will probably say that if it does not start moving by 5pm; the track changes.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Tropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 6
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on June 11, 2006

The Air Force hurricane hunters measured a 1400-ft flight-level wind
of 51 kt in a band of strong winds well to the east-northeast of
the center. There was a 1200 UTC ship report of 33 kt in that same
area. Based on these data...the system is being upgraded to a
tropical storm. Having said that...the satellite presentation of
the storm is not very impressive. Although the low-cloud center is
now fairly well-defined...strong southwesterly shear continues to
displace deep convection away from the center. Global models
predict this shear to increase...so not much additional
strengthening is anticipated. The official intensity forecast is
in good agreement with the latest SHIPS and GFDL model predictions.
The cyclone has moved a little farther to the west than earlier
predicted...however a more northward component of motion may now be
developing. Initial motion estimate is 320/8. A mid-level ridge
to the north of the storm is currently weakening and a trough is
forecast to amplify over the eastern United States during the next
couple of days. Therefore...if the tropical cyclone is able to
maintain at least a partially coherent vertical structure...it
would respond to this steering regime by turning toward the
northeast with some increase in forward speed during the next 48
hours. However...if Alberto becomes even more severely sheared...
it would more likely respond to shallow-level environmental flow
and remain in the Gulf of Mexico while weakening. This latter
scenario cannot be ruled out. The official forecast is similar
to...albeit slower than...the track prediction from the previous
package...and is very close to the consensus of the GFS...GFDL...
GFDN...U.K. Met...and NOGAPS model tracks.
A tropical storm watch may be required for portions of the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico coast later today.
Forecaster Pasch

forecast positions and Max winds
initial 11/1500z 23.9n 88.1w 40 kt
12hr VT 12/0000z 24.9n 88.7w 45 kt
24hr VT 12/1200z 26.0n 87.8w 45 kt
36hr VT 13/0000z 27.3n 85.8w 45 kt
48hr VT 13/1200z 28.5n 83.5w 45 kt
72hr VT 14/1200z 32.0n 77.0w 40 kt...extratropical
96hr VT 15/1200z 39.0n 67.0w 40 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 16/1200z 46.0n 54.0w 40 kt...extratropical

$$

[P.K.]

SXXX50 KNHC 111433
AF309 0201A CYCLONE HDOB 31 KNHC
1425. 2300N 08829W 01524 0008 296 021 174 156 022 01577 0000000000
1426 2301N 08827W 01523 0007 289 022 176 158 023 01575 0000000000
1426. 2302N 08825W 01525 0007 286 023 176 162 024 01577 0000000000
1427 2303N 08823W 01523 0006 289 023 172 162 024 01574 0000000000
1427. 2304N 08821W 01523 0006 284 021 170 162 022 01573 0000000000
1428 2305N 08819W 01526 0005 284 021 174 160 021 01575 0000000000
1428. 2306N 08817W 01524 0005 281 022 172 156 022 01573 0000000000
1429 2307N 08815W 01515 0004 271 020 170 168 021 01564 0000000000
1429. 2308N 08813W 01519 0002 271 019 168 168 020 01565 0000000000
1430 2309N 08811W 01525 0002 271 019 170 160 019 01571 0000000000
1430. 2310N 08810W 01524 0001 260 017 170 170 018 01568 0000000000
1431 2311N 08808W 01524 0000 254 018 170 168 018 01568 0000000000
1431. 2312N 08807W 01524 5000 249 017 170 170 018 01568 0000000000
1432 2313N 08805W 01526 5001 250 017 168 168 017 01570 0000000000
1432. 2314N 08803W 01521 5001 247 017 170 170 017 01564 0000000000
1433 2315N 08802W 01525 5001 240 016 168 168 016 01568 0000000000
1433. 2316N 08800W 01533 5001 248 017 166 166 018 01576 0000000000
1434 2316N 08758W 01532 0000 248 017 168 168 018 01577 0000000000
1434. 2317N 08756W 01523 0001 248 018 170 160 019 01568 0000000000
1435 2317N 08753W 01525 0002 254 020 166 162 020 01572 0000000000

[WindRunner]

Cleaned up the map a little. They appear to be darting to the convection one more time before heading home.

[P.K.]

AF309 0201A CYCLONE HDOB 32 KNHC
1435. 2317N 08751W 01524 0002 252 021 166 164 021 01570 0000000000
1436 2317N 08749W 01524 0002 248 021 166 166 021 01570 0000000000
1436. 2318N 08746W 01524 0002 245 021 164 164 022 01570 0000000000
1437 2319N 08744W 01524 0002 240 022 168 168 023 01569 0000000000
1437. 2320N 08742W 01524 0001 239 023 170 170 023 01569 0000000000
1438 2321N 08740W 01524 0001 239 022 170 166 023 01569 0000000000
1438. 2321N 08738W 01525 0001 238 022 170 170 022 01570 0000000000
1439 2322N 08736W 01524 0001 237 023 174 166 024 01569 0000000000
1439. 2323N 08733W 01523 0002 234 023 172 172 024 01569 0000000000
1440 2324N 08731W 01524 0001 229 024 166 166 025 01570 0000000000
1440. 2325N 08729W 01524 0002 228 024 170 170 025 01570 0000000000
1441 2326N 08727W 01524 0002 216 025 170 170 026 01571 0000000000
1441. 2327N 08725W 01522 0002 214 025 168 168 026 01568 0000000000
1442 2328N 08722W 01525 0003 206 024 170 170 025 01572 0000000000
1442. 2328N 08720W 01526 0003 210 024 170 170 024 01573 0000000000
1443 2329N 08718W 01523 0004 203 026 170 170 026 01572 0000000000
1443. 2330N 08716W 01518 0005 198 026 172 172 027 01568 0000000000
1444 2331N 08714W 01515 0005 196 027 174 174 027 01564 0000000000
1444. 2331N 08712W 01526 0004 198 026 174 166 027 01573 0000000000
1445 2331N 08710W 01523 0003 199 028 172 166 028 01570 0000000000