Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[jabber]

Hope the NHC does not waste a name on this mess.

[HURAKAN]

Now the NHC has to make a decision. Alberto or TD 1?

Yesterday they had a similar situation - TS winds but only in distant convection - and chose TD1. I'm expecting the same, especially since this thing does not look to get stronger.

Yesterday they didn't have a distinct and significant LLC, today they have it. It's getting complicated!!!

[KWT]

It's a hard choice for sure, but as Hurkan said it has got a better and far more distinct LLC and prehaps more importantly Sat estimates have gone up as well which combined with recon obs may well be enough.

[arcticfire]

It looks to me as if the center is getting better organized and convection is making it in there.

[cheezyWXguy]

it looks like its really trying

[WindRunner]

The WV image of TD1 is rather telling at this point . . . brown in the circulation is never good . . .
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/wv-l.jpg

[curtadams]

Now the NHC has to make a decision. Alberto or TD 1?

Yesterday they had a similar situation - TS winds but only in distant convection - and chose TD1. I'm expecting the same, especially since this thing does not look to get stronger.

Yesterday they didn't have a distinct and significant LLC, today they have it. It's getting complicated!!!

Agreed. Plus they are getting a LOT of TS winds - the plane's been in TS winds for 10 minutes or so.

[ronjon]

It's a hard choice for sure, but as Hurkan said it has got a better and far more distinct LLC and prehaps more importantly Sat estimates have gone up as well which combined with recon obs may well be enough.

51 kt flight level wind in the batch of thunderstorms in the NE quad. Translates to 40 mph at the surface. Looks like that with well-defined LLC and SAT estimates should be enuff to push it to Alberto.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE (AL012006) ON 20060611 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060611 1200 060612 0000 060612 1200 060613 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.6N 87.9W 25.6N 88.2W 27.0N 87.4W 27.7N 85.3W
BAMM 23.6N 87.9W 25.1N 88.9W 25.6N 89.3W 25.4N 89.7W
A98E 23.6N 87.9W 24.7N 89.1W 25.9N 89.4W 26.7N 89.2W
LBAR 23.6N 87.9W 25.4N 88.7W 27.3N 88.6W 28.8N 87.4W
SHIP 30KTS 32KTS 34KTS 39KTS
DSHP 30KTS 32KTS 34KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060613 1200 060614 1200 060615 1200 060616 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.2N 82.3W 32.9N 74.9W 41.3N 64.8W 49.1N 47.6W
BAMM 24.8N 90.3W 24.2N 91.4W 23.9N 92.5W 23.8N 94.4W
A98E 26.6N 88.6W 29.2N 84.3W 32.8N 75.9W 42.2N 63.5W
LBAR 29.9N 85.0W 32.7N 77.4W 40.4N 66.1W .0N .0W
SHIP 42KTS 49KTS 57KTS 53KTS
DSHP 35KTS 43KTS 50KTS 46KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.6N LONCUR = 87.9W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 22.5N LONM12 = 86.3W DIRM12 = 313DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 21.0N LONM24 = 85.3W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cheezyWXguy]

is that the trough in the WV?

[28_Storms]

wow dship up to 50 kts!! pressure is falling too - 1002 down from 1003 at 5.

[hsvwx]

I have to say that I imagine NHC would upgrade the storm at the 11 am advisory because it wasn't just one reading of 50 knt winds at flight level. From the recon thread there were multiple, I believe either 4 or 5 readings of 50 kt winds which equates to about 2 minutes of flying time. So it is over a pretty large area which these winds exist, not just one point location. But satellite presentation while improving, still looks very ragged. Wouldn't want to be the forecaster down there right now, definitely a tough decision.

[skysummit]

I have to say that I imagine NHC would upgrade the storm at the 11 am advisory because it wasn't just one reading of 50 knt winds at flight level. From the recon thread there were multiple, I believe either 4 or 5 readings of 50 kt winds which equates to about 2 minutes of flying time. So it is over a pretty large area which these winds exist, not just one point location. But satellite presentation while improving, still looks very ragged. Wouldn't want to be the forecaster down there right now, definitely a tough decision.

I'd keep it a TD and give it another try this evening.

[28_Storms]

Arlene looked the same - time to upgrade folks.

[WindRunner]

I have to say that I imagine NHC would upgrade the storm at the 11 am advisory because it wasn't just one reading of 50 knt winds at flight level. From the recon thread there were multiple, I believe either 4 or 5 readings of 50 kt winds which equates to about 2 minutes of flying time. So it is over a pretty large area which these winds exist, not just one point location. But satellite presentation while improving, still looks very ragged. Wouldn't want to be the forecaster down there right now, definitely a tough decision.

I'd keep it a TD and give it another try this evening.

Unless the recon finds something amazing in the next hour, so would I.

[hsvwx]

So here's a question, if they do not end up upgrading it to a tropical storm, does anyone think they would possibly do so during reanalysis during the offseason. Obviously last year we had tropical storm No Name, and I guess they could do the same for this one. Recon data certainly suggests it is at this time.

[GeneratorPower]

The IR Floater Loop looks like we're getting some increased convection and it might be wrapping around the center a bit more. The LLC is clearly evident. If it doesn't die away like it has been it may well wrap all the way around and get upgraded at the same time. What a puzzler.

[rockyman]

12z BAMM has jumped on the "left behind" bandwagon...showing the system drifting harmlessly to the WSW after 36 hours.

[canegrl04]

Ugly Alberto is here

[skysummit]

Ugly Alberto is here

Not official yet.