Relocation of center very possible...

[Grease Monkey]

Well...I think the SWIR loop shows this feature was at the mid-levels...our LLC is as clear now as it has ever been.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html

It looks like it's starting to get the bands to wrap around the center even though it still has a long way to go or am I mistaken?

[Air Force Met]

Well...I think the SWIR loop shows this feature was at the mid-levels...our LLC is as clear now as it has ever been.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html

It looks like it's starting to get the bands to wrap around the center even though it still has a long way to go or am I mistaken?

It's trying...but moving into higher shear and dry air. Going to be an uphill fight.

[JBP]

Definitely. If this one makes it that in itself will be something to talk about.

[Aquawind]

Welp as ususal NHC rocks.. No relocation and pretty much on forecast with the same shear and dry air.

[Stratosphere747]

Paul,

By looking at the recon locations, you might see a sizable change in the location to the Central Gulf area, unless I'm reading the obs wrong. I believe they think the center is well displaced from the actual convection.

[Air Force Met]

Paul,

By looking at the recon locations, you might see a sizable change in the location to the Central Gulf area, unless I'm reading the obs wrong. I believe they think the center is well displaced from the actual convection.

The center is very obvious on the shortwave IR...


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html

[HURAKAN]

Air Force Met,

In you opinion, TD 1 won't become Alberto.

[Aquawind]

Oh yeah it is so obvious it is not the relocation to the east as thought last night and closer to the NHC track.. It certainly looks ugly sheared and displaced from the real convection since it became a TD..

[T-man]

So, it has not turned any east towards florida yet then? When will it make it around the ridge, and start to turn?

[feederband]

So, it has not turned any east towards florida yet then? When will it make it around the ridge, and start to turn?

IMO soon...

[DROliver]

Its moving very close to due west. It looks to be embedded in the low level flow, which is east to west. If this keeps up the trof will miss it.

We really need the rain here in CFL. Its sunny,humid and HOT right now

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

[Aquawind]

I hear ya DrO and am hoping we all get the rain expected. They have upped the rain forecast here this morning and even have a flood watch.. That is a wild change and we can only hope the dynamics stay together and the forecasts verify. Pressure is down on RECON and no convection..funkadelic..

[wxman57]

Its moving very close to due west. It looks to be embedded in the low level flow, which is east to west. If this keeps up the trof will miss it.

We really need the rain here in CFL. Its sunny,humid and HOT right now

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

I think the rain is still going NNE across Florida, it's the center that's going west. Recon did confirm the center way out at 88W now.

[DROliver]

Funkadelic for sure Just a few inches of rain will help!

[Nimbus]

The low LLC was naked and visible last night in the sunset SAT shots just east of Cozumel. Surface observations clearly showed pressures down around 1003 MB and winds from the west on the island. Winds were from the north just half a degree north at the Cozumel airport.

Extrapolating from that point to the current position gives a generally NNW motion a little left of the NHC track and a little slower. The LLC continues to lack much convevtion but the shear mid gulf has been decreasing.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

Obviously the scenario of track adjustment discussed in the NHC 5AM advisory will need to be considered.

If daylight imagery
and/or reconnaissance data confirm that the western center is the
only center...then some significant adjustments in the track and
intensity forecasts will likely be necessary later today.

If TD1 stays sheared and trapped in the low level flow the trough may miss it, so now its an intensity and timing call. Trofs tend to dig for stronger systems.

[skysummit]

I believe those shear charts are a bit off. They show appx 15kts for the most part, however, looking at WV, it shear looks to be higher than that.

[rockyman]

Another morning, another visible loop, another reality check, another lesson about making center relocations based on infrared imagery.

[Nimbus]

The dry air in the gulf should continue to inhibit development so it won't take much shear to keep the tops blown off.

[Aquawind]

Another morning, another visible loop, another reality check, another lesson about making center relocations based on infrared imagery.

Well Said rockyman!

[Extremeweatherguy]

The NHC says there is an increasing chance that Alberto could take a new track. It says that if this does not start turning soon, this may end up in the western Gulf. <<<According to 5am discussion.