What the Tampa Area Can Expect

#1 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 4:31 pm

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

On the current track I expect Frances-like conditions for Tampa area, when Frances was over on the West coast of Florida. Recall that Tampa saw TS force winds from Frances - which wreaked havoc and knocked out power everywhere. Here is what I expect for those on the West cost of Florida - in the Tampa area (I just gave this same guidance to my mother who lives in Clearwater)

BE PREPARED - tropical storms are not fun:

- Tornado threats
- scattered power outages
- wind gusts to 60mph+ initially an onshore flow out of the SW
- no major structural damage but widespread landscaping damage with tree limbs down in many places.
- 3-6 inches of rainfall
- tides running 2-4 feet above normal (bayshore will flood as it always does)
- conditions will begin to detiorate gradually on Sun with Mon and Mon night being the bad times.

Extremeweatherguy · #2 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 4:59 pm

I disagree with this. I do not think Tampa will see gusts over 60mph. Why? A weak TS landfall north of Tampa will not have these type of winds in the city, also weak landfalling tropical storms usually have gusts less than 60mph. Remember Bonnie from 2004, it made landfall as a 50mph TS (I think) and I don't recall her doing much damage at all (even to tree limbs). This is what I expect in Tampa (Unless the storm reaches over 60mph in intensity):

-winds of 25-40mph with gusts of 40-55mph.
-A few twigs and small branches downed.
-light lawn furniture and potted plants moved or tipped.
-Isolated power outages.
-3 to 6" of rain.
-1 to 3 foot storm surges.

If, however, this does happen to become a 60-65mph (or stronger) TS, then your ideas may be more in line boca_chris.

#3 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 5:02 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:I disagree with this. I do not think Tampa will see gusts over 60mph. Why? A weak TS landfall north of Tampa will not have these type of winds in the city, also weak landfalling tropical storms usually have gusts less than 60mph. Remember Bonnie from 2004, it made landfall as a 50mph TS (I think) and I don't recall her doing much damage at all (even to tree limbs). This is what I expect in Tampa (Unless the storm reaches over 60mph in intensity):

-winds of 25-40mph with gusts of 40-55mph.
-A few twigs and small branches downed.
-light lawn furniture and potted plants moved or tipped.
-Isolated power outages.
-3 to 6" of rain.
-1 to 3 foot storm surges.

If, however, this does happen to become a 60-65mph (or stronger) TS, then your ideas may be more in line boca_chris.

good forecast - well you could be right, but there are low areas in Tampa that flood regularly (like Bayshore) even if the system is off to the NW a good deal...the locals know this 8-)

#4 Postby **Cookiely** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 6:32 pm

I do NOT want to do any further yard work at this time so I hope your forecasts are wrong. :lol:

#5 Postby **TampaFl** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 6:55 pm

You are right about the Bayshore area in downtown Tampa. Boca_Chris. A prolonged s to sw wind will drive the water up into the bay and there could be some "minor" to "moderate" tidal problems. All this will depend on how strong, and the landfall point. Plus NWS R Tampa is saying 4 -8 " of rain (which we all could use). So far today here at my place rainfall is 0.35

Robert

johnq1954 · #6 Postby **johnq1954** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:27 pm

I think it will be more like this storm:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

I lived through this one in Tampa and it was a piece of cake.

jdray · #7 Postby **jdray** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:42 pm

Umm, Bonnie hit the panhandle and caused tornados in Jacksonville.

Thats the risk from Tropical Storms making landfall.

#8 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:46 pm

no more 52 pickup please!!!

Sean in New Orleans · #9 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:52 pm

Have fun with it...you can have them all this year.

HurricaneHunter914 · #10 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:53 pm

All I can say for Tampa is wind and..........RAIN!

#11 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:54 pm

everytime we have long stretches of no rain we get upwards of 10+ inches of rain, is that the case here?

Extremeweatherguy · #12 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 10:12 pm

the new track is much further north of Tampa than at 5pm. My new prediction for the city is...

- 20 to 35mph sustained winds with gusts to 40-45mph (may be up to 50mph).
-A few lawn chairs may move, a few twigs/small branches may snap, a few potted plants may tip.
-2 to 6" of rain.
-1 to 3 foot higher than normal tides.

Overall a minor event.

mf_dolphin · #13 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 10:15 pm

johnq1954 wrote:I think it will be more like this storm:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

I lived through this one in Tampa and it was a piece of cake.

The problem with comparing this secario to Kieth was that Kieth came to our south. That put Tampa on the good side of the storm and therefore off-shore and weaker winds. It this moves in north of Tampa the winds will be on-shore and we'll be on the dirty side of the storm. Nothing to worry about, but a far different scenario than Kieth.

Dr. Jonah Rainwater · #14 Postby **Dr. Jonah Rainwater** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 10:27 pm

My mom's going to Tampa for a job training seminar this week. Her flight is Monday morning, leaving DFW at about 6am. At what point would the airport begin to be severely affected?

floridahurricaneguy · #15 Postby **floridahurricaneguy** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 10:28 pm

Personally I think NHC's track is to far north... what do you all think?

Extremeweatherguy · #16 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 10:29 pm

floridahurricaneguy wrote:Personally I think NHC's track is to far north... what do you all think?

No. I agree with it. Anything can happen though.

johnq1954 · #17 Postby **johnq1954** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 10:42 pm

mf_dolphin wrote:
johnq1954 wrote:I think it will be more like this storm:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

I lived through this one in Tampa and it was a piece of cake.

The problem with comparing this secario to Kieth was that Kieth came to our south. That put Tampa on the good side of the storm and therefore off-shore and weaker winds. It this moves in north of Tampa the winds will be on-shore and we'll be on the dirty side of the storm. Nothing to worry about, but a far different scenario than Kieth.

Good point.

But Keith's winds were stronger than this storm's winds as I recall.

In any case, I had never experienced wind as strong as Frances' or Jeanne's before, and I lived through Keith and the March storm here. I don't think this one will be anywhere near the 2004 storms.

The_OD_42 · #18 Postby **The_OD_42** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 10:43 pm

Very dark and quiet here tonight around Tampa...kinda spooky :eek:

Dr. Jonah Rainwater · #19 Postby **Dr. Jonah Rainwater** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 10:47 pm

Dr. Jonah Rainwater wrote:My mom's going to Tampa for a job training seminar this week. Her flight is Monday morning, leaving DFW at about 6am. At what point would the airport begin to be severely affected?

Should my mother's flight be affected by Alberto-to-be?

Deb321 · #20 Postby **Deb321** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 10:48 pm

I'm beginning to think I am a magnet for these storms. :roll:

I moved from Port St Lucie to Jax after dealing with 3 hurricanes in 13 months and now it seems they want to move north with me

What the Tampa Area Can Expect

What the Tampa Area Can Expect

Who is online