TD1 Track has Shifted from Local Mets early forecasts

[Air Force Met]

Well, in english class it is spelled trough.
OK, seeing how you are from TX too, when is it turning towards Houston?

As you can see, I'm a pro-met...and it's an abbreviation...just like NVA...PVA...SWT...SWR...ERC...LI...ET...LCL...RCR...etc...and all the other abbreviation used in weather...and since you are on a weather forum...and not in an English class...and new here with all of 30+posts...maybe you can get with the program and understand that there are abbreviations used in the biz that might fly in the face of the queens english and adjust.

...and yes I am from Houston...and I think it is headed to the west coast of Florida...if it survives the shear and dry air.

[Opal storm]

I think tonight will be critical. I don't think the FL panhandle is set in stone just yet. The visibles of the LLC concern me a bit.

The Panhandle?The panhandle is not even in the forecasted track/cone.

[Toro694]

I have much faith in the NHC. They have done an excellent job over the last couple of years.
Remember all of the confusion with Wilma? They were almost dead on.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Well, in english class it is spelled trough.
OK, seeing how you are from TX too, when is it turning towards Houston?

Did they also teach you that "english" [sic] is spelled with a capital letter? this isn't an English course, it's a weather board.

I don't know that it'll turn toward Houston or not, or for that matter where it is going to go. Earlier UKMET and BAMM models did have it further west than what is now being shown, and there ARE models out there that show the "possibility" of it tracking anywhere from well west of here, to the obviously more probable NE track to Florida.

A2K

[Air Force Met]

TRANSITION IS STILL EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD NEAR
THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.


FORECASTER KNABB

Looks like Knabb doesn't abbreviate?

Since you are having SUCH a difficult time with this:

http://www.thedenverchannel.com/weather/4283810/detail.html
"Sometimes abbreviated TROF on a weather map."

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?pil=PMD&sid=EPD&wfo=mfr

"BECOMING PROGRESSIVE WITH ITS EPAC TROF AND CLOSED LOW"


http://www.comet.ucar.edu/resources/cases/c30_20mar2000/wxdis_3.19.htm
"DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROF NOW OVER THE WESTERN U.S. "

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/validProds.php?prod=AFD&node=KUNR
"UPPER LEVELS SHOW TROF MOVING... "


Looks like some poeple (even in the Gov't) do...

[Toro694]

Well, in english class it is spelled trough.
OK, seeing how you are from TX too, when is it turning towards Houston?

As you can see, I'm a pro-met...and it's an abbreviation...just like NVA...PVA...SWT...SWR...ERC...LI...ET...LCL...RCR...etc...and all the other abbreviation used in weather...and since you are on a weather forum...and not in an English class...and new here with all of 30+posts...maybe you can get with the program and understand that there are abbreviations used in the biz that might fly in the face of the queens english and adjust.

...and yes I am from Houston...and I think it is headed to the west coast of Florida...if it survives the shear and dry air.

Sorry, didn't realize you were a professional meteorologist.
Glad to see that you are in agreement with the NHC ( That stands for National Hurricane Center, for folks like me who do not get abbreviations and acronyms ) and their projected path.

[HurricaneQueen]

Well said, A2K,

It's way to early in the season to blame the "bickering" on nerves.

Lynn

[Toro694]

TRANSITION IS STILL EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD NEAR
THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.


FORECASTER KNABB

Looks like Knabb doesn't abbreviate?

Since you are having SUCH a difficult time with this:

http://www.thedenverchannel.com/weather/4283810/detail.html
"Sometimes abbreviated TROF on a weather map."

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?pil=PMD&sid=EPD&wfo=mfr

"BECOMING PROGRESSIVE WITH ITS EPAC TROF AND CLOSED LOW"


http://www.comet.ucar.edu/resources/cases/c30_20mar2000/wxdis_3.19.htm
"DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROF NOW OVER THE WESTERN U.S. "

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/validProds.php?prod=AFD&node=KUNR
"UPPER LEVELS SHOW TROF MOVING... "


Looks like some poeple (even in the Gov't) do...

Well, glad to see you have a great sense of humor.
That is pretty funny!
But today, Knabb spelled it TROUGH.
But I do not care anymore. TROF TROF. I love the TROF.

[Air Force Met]

Well, in english class it is spelled trough.
OK, seeing how you are from TX too, when is it turning towards Houston?

Sorry, didn't realize you were a professional meteorologist.
Glad to see that you are in agreement with the NHC ( That stands for National Hurricane Center, for folks like me who do not get abbreviations and acronyms ) and their projected path.

That's what the avatar that says PRO-MET is for...but it doesn't matter. This isn't the weather channel boards or any other boards...you need to check that hyper-critical attitude at the door...especially when you have all of 30+ posts. Question someone's forecast? Sure...but spelling a word? Goodness...especially when it works out that trof is a legit weather word (as you can see by the usage (and it is numerous) in my post above from various sources). We use it all the time. What you were doing was attempting to discredit someones forecast by making them look foolish in another area. Not necessary.

Now...back to weather.

[skysummit]

People pay way too much attention to these models. I'm also still thinking that it will make that north and northeast turn at some point and head toward the Big Bend...until there is another reason to do so. Those models that have it heading toward the central gulf were the newer runs of those released this evening. Earlier today they were all in agreement with the Florida West Coast, and now they're not. Something's gotta give right?

We're not talking about a Cat 3 storm here. We barely even know where the center is. These models will continue to flip flop almost everytime they're run. If the consensus starts shifting in one way or another, it might make me think. But for now, I'm just watching the steering charts and keeping an eye on water vapor.

[Air Force Met]

Well, glad to see you have a great sense of humor.
That is pretty funny!
But today, Knabb spelled it TROUGH.
But I do not care anymore. TROF TROF. I love the TROF.

I do...and the NHC guys don't like to abbreviate too much. Their products get read by everyone...so they like to keep it plain English and keep the WX (which is another abbreviation in the biz for "weather") speak down.

Now...The TROF will pick up this weak LLC...which is getting the crud kicked out of it by the low RH's and high shear.

[Toro694]

They said that it could head towards Houston. That statement was enough to discredit their forecast.
No way it is going anywhere near there.
I only want folks to admit when they want to see a storm come their way. Folks shouldn't base forecasts on what they WANT. That is dangerous I believe.
Much more dangerous than how "trough" is spelled or abbreviated.

[Audrey2Katrina]

They said that it could head towards Houston. That statement was enough to discredit their forecast.
No way it is going anywhere near there.
I only want folks to admit when they want to see a storm come their way. Folks shouldn't base forecasts on what they WANT. That is dangerous I believe.
Much more dangerous than how "trough" is spelled or abbreviated.

What you are referring to is "-removed-" and it's strictly taboo in here, albeit there are those who just can't resist. I can assure you that most of those in here who have experienced major hurricanes, which includes the individual to whom you refer, do NOT want any part of another one. Just don't read between the lines, and roll with the flow. Anyone is entitled to disagree with a projected path without this sort of silliness. The NHC has done a very good job; but if disagreeing with them betimes were sacrilegious, I'd have been excommunicated long ago!

You'll learn.

A2K

[Toro694]

Excommunicated!!! I love that phrase!

If this place is ran like the Catholic Church, I am in trouble!

[Pearl River]

Toro694 wrote

Toro694 wrote:
Pearl River wrote:
Actually the modeling is spread all over the place. Depending on how strong the system get's, will depend on how it's steered too. The model's have been wavering all day, as they usually do. Right now, the trof appears to be moving more west to east and not southeast. This could change too. EWG, I agree with you. Nothing is written in stone with these things.


Models spread all over the place?
Where is this map at? The ones I see all are pretty much in agreement to a hit somewhere around the northern part of the Fl west coast.

If you want to know, I look at all the models individually as they are released at different times of the day. As I quoted above

The model's have been wavering all day, as they usually do.

There has been spreads from Northern Mexico to Tampa.

No one said it was headed for Houston. It was specifically stated that anywhere from Houston to Tallahasse, those living in that area should keep an eye on it.

[caribepr]

Toro Toro Toro Wave the red cape!

Just for for the sake of lull sanity...do NOT let the rules of the Engish language affect you here. Otherwise, you will miss the important stuff. Take it from one who grimaces through the errors and carries on for the content.
Also, best to read carefully, and post thoughtfully, as well as doing your own research on something you question - there are many who can give good answers here but it's a great thing to *look it up* for yourself as well. My Daddy used to never tell me how to spell a word without saying Go look it up in the dictionary! first - I learned the word that way much more truly than if he'd just told me, but he was always my back up. Steady on, cape guy, it's early days yet, even with TD 1 wigwagging itself out there.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Just to remind everyone (especially toro): I never said this was coming to Houston. All I said is that if it for some reason missed the trof (or 'trough' if you want it to be grammatically correct), then the likely path would be between Houston and Tallahassee. In my opinion currently, I do not think this is going to miss the trof (or 'trough')...but there is always a chance.

BTW, here is a look back at my original post in response to this thread. I never mention Houston as THE target. I use it as a reference to the western edge of my cone if the storm were to not be carried east:

the only reason this should hit FL is because of a trof that should shunt it east. If for some reason the trof misses it or never gets far enough south, then anywhere fom Houston to Tallahassee becomes a target.

[Lowpressure]

This will not be a Texas storm.

[DAVE440]

Ok....for what its worth....local Ch7 Met saying wind shear from 2 directions should keep TD1 from gaining too much strength. Shouldn't exceed Trop Storm force.

Wind speed unchanged - pressure only down 1mb and forward speed increased 3mph. Now moving NNW at 9.

Mainly a rain event for those in and near its path. Of course...if it lingers for a while....some tropical storms and even depressions that slow down, stall or linger can cause flooding problems. It's happened here before many times.

[Extremeweatherguy]

the track has shifted a bit north. Now expected to make landfall on the northern part of the big bend or the eastern panhandle.