Relocation of center very possible...

CHRISTY · #41 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:23 pm

all this means like wxman57 was sayin that this might hit florida sooner than expected.

JamesFromMaine2 · #42 Postby **JamesFromMaine2** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:24 pm

its a long link. just south of cuba you have a line going from north to south of thunderstorms. look to the left of the bottom of that line and will see the center spinning around.

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?T ... AXw01a.gif

rockyman · #43 Postby **rockyman** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:26 pm

We probably have more users online now that all of the internet users in Cuba combined...so we'll probably crash their server in a few minutes

Opal storm · #44 Postby **Opal storm** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:26 pm

CHRISTY wrote:all this means like wxman57 was sayin that this might hit florida sooner than expected.

To me,if this is the new low then it will be in or very close to S FL around this time tomorrow.That would be a MAJOR track adjustment.

Bgator · #45 Postby **Bgator** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:27 pm

If this were to relocate it seems to be moving NNE, would this be bad for S Fla?!

#46 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:28 pm

Opal storm wrote:
CHRISTY wrote:all this means like wxman57 was sayin that this might hit florida sooner than expected.
To me,if this is the new low then it will be in or very close to S FL around this time tomorrow.That would be a MAJOR track adjustment.

Well, all it means is that Florida will get some well-needed rainfall. There may not be any inland winds over about 20-25 mph even if it makes TS in some small pocket of squalls.

caneman · #47 Postby **caneman** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:28 pm

Rockyman, I agree. I've noticed the West side building back an now`the system appears to be north an east of the ull. It's now or never. I think it will help ventilate.

CHRISTY · #48 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:30 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Opal storm wrote:
CHRISTY wrote:all this means like wxman57 was sayin that this might hit florida sooner than expected.
To me,if this is the new low then it will be in or very close to S FL around this time tomorrow.That would be a MAJOR track adjustment.

Well, all it means is that Florida will get some well-needed rainfall. There may not be any inland winds over about 20-25 mph even if it makes TS in some small pocket of squalls.

u think the current track will change?or if it does more towards the 5am advisory.

spinfan4eva · #49 Postby **spinfan4eva** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:31 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
cheezywxman wrote:thats weird because convection is wrapping around it and bands ar forming around it

Convection has been wrapping and banding around the MLC over Cuba all day...but that wasn't where the LLC was...

Convection and wrap and band around a MLC. Look at the SWIR...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

You can still see much turning over the channel.

If you turn on the tropical plots, you can see that the center is just halfway across the yucatan channel and is developing strong convection just east of it. IMHO, it looks the best it has looked yet!

#50 Postby **Vortex** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:33 pm

As I opened this topic regarding relocation of TD #1 Cuban radar also confirms what may be an LLC reforming instead of an MLC. This could prove to be a very interesting night. Also deep moisture is continuing to stream into the east quadrant from the southern carribean and now to the south of the possible new llc we have streamers coming in from the west with a low level cloud deck forming indicating a very moist atmosphere....

CHRISTY · #51 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:35 pm

Guys its still TD at 11:00pm now moving at NNW at 9 MPH.

#52 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:37 pm

CHRISTY wrote:
u think the current track will change?or if it does more towards the 5am advisory.

The NHC didn't even mention the MLC in their discussion. They won't change the track unless recon can confirm a developing LLC farther south early in the morning. But it could be possible that south Florida will be "surprised" by a landfall Sunday night/early Monday of a TD or weak TS. They're already being hit by squalls tonight. Rain will only increase there as time goes on.

Well, time for bed. Been up since 5am and at work from 6am to 5pm. Another long day tomorrow.

#53 Postby **jlauderdal** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:39 pm

wxman57 wrote:
CHRISTY wrote:
u think the current track will change?or if it does more towards the 5am advisory.

The NHC didn't even mention the MLC in their discussion. They won't change the track unless recon can confirm a developing LLC farther south early in the morning. But it could be possible that south Florida will be "surprised" by a landfall Sunday night/early Monday of a TD or weak TS. They're already being hit by squalls tonight. Rain will only increase there as time goes on.

Well, time for bed. Been up since 5am and at work from 6am to 5pm. Another long day tomorrow.

that would be similiar to irene a few years ago where it was supposed to run up the west coast and didnt, this wont be the soaker irene was but the scenario would be similiar

#54 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:39 pm

Vortex wrote:As I opened this topic regarding relocation of TD #1 Cuban radar also confirms what may be an LLC reforming instead of an MLC. This could prove to be a very interesting night. Also deep moisture is continuing to stream into the east quadrant from the southern carribean and now to the south of the possible new llc we have streamers coming in from the west with a low level cloud deck forming indicating a very moist atmosphere....

As I have pointed out before...you cannot use radar to place a LLC...especially at any distance due to Line-of-Sight. At the distance from the radar to the circulation center...the radar is into the mid-levels. You cannot see the sfc from that distance.

Looking at the sfc obs...it does not match up. I am not saying it can't or won't happen...but right now...the obs do not show any LLC in that area. So...whatever is on radar or satellite is in the mid levels...and maybe in the lower levels...but not at the sfc...yet.

CHRISTY · #55 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:39 pm

wxman57 wrote:
CHRISTY wrote:
u think the current track will change?or if it does more towards the 5am advisory.

The NHC didn't even mention the MLC in their discussion. They won't change the track unless recon can confirm a developing LLC farther south early in the morning. But it could be possible that south Florida will be "surprised" by a landfall Sunday night/early Monday of a TD or weak TS. They're already being hit by squalls tonight. Rain will only increase there as time goes on.

Well, time for bed. Been up since 5am and at work from 6am to 5pm. Another long day tomorrow.

wxman57 your the best iam thankful for all your insight. :wink:

chrisy

cmdebbie · #56 Postby **cmdebbie** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:41 pm

Well, time for bed. Been up since 5am and at work from 6am to 5pm. Another long day tomorrow.

wxman57: Thank you for your much respected input. Goodnight.

#57 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:41 pm

so SFL is not out of the picture yet, even though the NHC says that it is?

rockyman · #58 Postby **rockyman** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:42 pm

The NHC has absolutely no reason to "relocate" the center...it was obvious to everyone where the LLC was at sunset...now many people "forget" about the LLC because they can't see it and then, just like last night, people starting looking for a center that they can "see"...The NHC is not being conservative on this issue, they are being scientific.

CHRISTY · #59 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:43 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:so SFL is not out of the picture yet, even though the NHC says that it is?

tommorows recon flight will be important to see if they relocate the center.

cmdebbie · #60 Postby **cmdebbie** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:44 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:so SFL is not out of the picture yet, even though the NHC says that it is?

I don't recall the NHC stating that SFL is out of the picture. I didn't think they made those kind of comments. Someone please correct me if I am wrong.

Relocation of center very possible...

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