Relocation of center very possible...

#21 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 8:57 pm

rockyman wrote:By the way, this is the same MLC that I tracked on visible satellite imagery before dark, and on visible it was obviously NOT an LLC. It's moving NNE because it's circulating around the true center to north.

Exactly...it has been moving up from the Gulf of Hond. all day.

#22 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 8:58 pm

I was going to post something to the effect that IR imagery isn't good to use on weak systems, but I actually do see something significant there near 20.4N/85W. It's a definite circulation probably around 5000 feet or more up. Even though it may not represent a surface LLC, it is moving pretty quickly off to the NNE, taking all the convection that was east of Belize with it. Could be quite significant in that it may mean the whole system is beginning to lift out to the NNE. IF that's the case, then it may be moving across Florida a lot sooner than forecast.

#23 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 8:58 pm

boca wrote:Rockyman what do you use at night for sat on ill defined centers.

SWIR...shortwave IR is about the best we have...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

#24 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:00 pm

wxman57 wrote:I was going to post something to the effect that IR imagery isn't good to use on weak systems, but I actually do see something significant there near 20.4N/85W. It's a definite circulation probably around 5000 feet or more up. Even though it may not represent a surface LLC, it is moving pretty quickly off to the NNE, taking all the convection that was east of Belize with it. Could be quite significant in that it may mean the whole system is beginning to lift out to the NNE. IF that's the case, then it may be moving across Florida a lot sooner than forecast.

I've been watching it all day...wondering what would happen when it moved up and over the LLC (what there is of it at least).

Should provide for some interesting viewing for the time of the diurnal convective max.

Aquawind · #25 Postby **Aquawind** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:00 pm

IR has it is clearly further east.

boca · #26 Postby **boca** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:01 pm

Thanks air force for the info.

#27 Postby **Dionne** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:02 pm

Buoy 42056 located at 19.87N and 85.06W pressure bottomed out at 29.65 and is currently at 29.70. The 4PM advisory had the center at 21.8N and 85.7W. That pretty much says it for me....something is going to slide into the southern gulf.

#28 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:03 pm

Here's another IR enhancement that shows the lower-level to mid level center very clearly as an "eye-like" feature (not an eye):

cheezyWXguy · #29 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:04 pm

could someone please show me where the low actually is on this map?

nvm...thanx

rockyman · #30 Postby **rockyman** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:04 pm

This is a treat! 5 posts in a row from pro-Mets and moderators! I'll break the chain...the main reason this MLC feature is suddenly "popping" on IR is that it's dying and the few remaining cold clouds tops can be seen swirling toward oblivion...the new burst to the north of the MLC could become the new MLC later this evening....this would be closer to the LLC and could perhaps lead to intensification of TD1.

By the way, thanks Vortex for starting this thread...things were kinda dead around here this evening

#31 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:06 pm

rockyman wrote:This is a treat! 5 posts in a row from pro-Mets and moderators! I'll break the chain...the main reason this MLC feature is suddenly "popping" on IR is that it's dying and the few remaining cold clouds tops can be seen swirling toward oblivion...the new burst to the north of the MLC could become the new MLC later this evening....this would be closer to the LLC and could perhaps lead to intensification of TD1.

By the way, thanks Vortex for starting this thread...things were kinda dead around here this evening

Yes, those lower to mid level centers are easier to spot when there are no squalls pumping out cirrus all over the place (i.e., TD struggling to stay alive).

boca · #32 Postby **boca** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:06 pm

Rockyman you have a good point.

MiamiensisWx · #33 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:07 pm

After all the thoughts presented now along with the data, I think we will see a slight southern shift of at least some of the models tonight.

rockyman · #34 Postby **rockyman** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:10 pm

Is there any chance that storms could form around the western side of the LLC during the diurnal maximum tonight? Is shear still too strong and is the air still too dry...I know that many times I'll go to bed with a lopsided system in a few hours later awake to a symmetric system. Thoughts?

Thanks, Boca! Those grilled cheeses I just ate must have provided some brain food...All protein and no bread makes rockyman a dumb boy

CHRISTY · #35 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:11 pm

wxman57 wrote:I was going to post something to the effect that IR imagery isn't good to use on weak systems, but I actually do see something significant there near 20.4N/85W. It's a definite circulation probably around 5000 feet or more up. Even though it may not represent a surface LLC, it is moving pretty quickly off to the NNE, taking all the convection that was east of Belize with it. Could be quite significant in that it may mean the whole system is beginning to lift out to the NNE. IF that's the case, then it may be moving across Florida a lot sooner than forecast.

u really think this is happeing wxman57?can u talk more about your seeing if its ok.chrisy.

wxwatcher91 · #36 Postby **wxwatcher91** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:13 pm

BigA wrote:
I was going to say that too boca. I want link. Now I will go back to thinking about how i am going to drink tons of coffee to stay up tonight.

I actually like going to bed, because I get excited: Its the only time that almost "instantly", the system can change dramatically.

yeah I get the adrenaline rush when I go to bed... then I wake up like two hours later lol. Last year, my internal alarm clock had me waking up at 5am each morning for the advisory. and after Wilma, who managed to strengthen from a cat1 to record intensity while I slept, I tried not to miss anything from any storm.

caneman · #37 Postby **caneman** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:15 pm

Loks to me like the LLC may take hold on Western tip of Cuba. I also think shear isn't impacting as much. Looks like there is enough seperation now that it may actually ventilate the system. Pros care to comment

Aquawind · #38 Postby **Aquawind** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:17 pm

wxman57 I think your IR image is right on.. The GHCC IR loop almost makes it look like a true center is forming..

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

jrod · #39 Postby **jrod** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:21 pm

I posted that in the other thread about 2 hours ago. The responses were it was a MLC. That vortex is looking better now and like I posted earlier this is a bit more favorable than the any of the other LLC that have formed.

rockyman · #40 Postby **rockyman** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:22 pm

Relocation of center very possible...

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