wxman57 wrote:
The only problem with that wind swath is it doesn't account for frictional effects over land. It's unlikely that there will be much, if any, inland wind penetration of TS force winds. In fact, TD 1 may not even make it to a TS before it crosses Florida. But I suspect the NHC may do one of their "political upgrades", calling it a TS even though TS force winds aren't really found just to make people notice it -- not that that's such a bad thing as far as alerting the public, which is their main job. It does tend to inflate the count, though.
Notice the NHC talking about increasing shear farther north along the track? Any more shear and there won't be anything left of this thing.
excellent obs there WX57...I so agree. TD1 needs to consolidate with a true center and move under the convection. Personally, I think the NHC was very generous with the TD upgrade with such a broad area. We shall see what it does tonight.