TD1 Track has Shifted from Local Mets early forecasts

[DAVE440]

At least 3 local mets in S Fl. have been pointing out the "area of disturbed weather" near the Yucatan Peninsula for a couple of days now. All indicated that IF it did develop into anything it would be a Tx or La Gulf coast storm and not move towards Florida due to wind patterns.

I know wind shear has let up a bit allowing for further development and we're now talking about TD1. But... as for the current forecast track crossing Florida .... contractictory to early forecasts....

Have wind patterns shifted in the last 2 days?

Is this system behaving unexpectedly?

Is there another system(s) influencing steering currents?

Or....did all the local Mets just drink the same hallucinogenic coffee? Haha!

BTW... Happy Hurricane season to all.

[CHRISTY]

At least 3 local mets in S Fl. have been pointing out the "area of disturbed weather" near the Yucatan Peninsula for a couple of days now. Both indicated that IF it did develop into anything it would be a Gulf coast storm and not move towards Florida due to wind patterns.

I know wind shear has let up a bit allowing for further development... but
as for the current forecast track crossing Florida....

Have wind patterns shifted in the last 2 days?

Is this system behaving unexpectedly?

Is there another system(s) influencing steering currents?

Or....did all the local Mets just drink the same hallucinogenic coffee? Haha!

BTW... Happy Hurricane season to all.

let it get north of our latitude before we sound the ok.

[Weatherfreak000]

haha yeah better not fly this flag, Floridians really want this baby


Joking

[skysummit]

Some models have moved.....

[Stratusxpeye]

Some models have moved.....

which way? further south? or north

[Extremeweatherguy]

the only reason this should hit FL is because of a trof that should shunt it east. If for some reason the trof misses it or never gets far enough south, then anywhere fom Houston to Tallahassee becomes a target.

[Toro694]

Well, the trough is a pretty GOOD reason though.
I think that throwing out Houston Texas as a possibility is WAY OFF base.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well, the trough is a pretty GOOD reason though.
I think that throwing out Houston Texas as a possibility is WAY OFF base.

ok..?

Look at the models posted above. The furthest west of those are toward Houston. I am not saying Houston WILL get hit. All I am saying is that if the storm doesn't connect with the trof, then anywhere from Houston to Tallahassee could be in the path (pretty much that means the central Gulf).

[gatorcane]

You can just start to see the trough in the NW part of this water vapor loop - that is the one that is supposed to shunt in NE - if it dips down far enought. There should be some doubt whether this will happen..

I personally have more doubt today - it certainly doesn't look all that impressive of a trough and we are inching into mid June - chances it could be modified considerably as it tries to push SE.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

[Toro694]

Uh, there is one very crappy model that has it going in the general direction of Texas. There are , 40 or 50 that has it going the exact other way.
I think to suggest that it may go towards Texas, from a person in Texas, when all other data says otherwise could be thought of as well,,,,,
And it isn't spelled troff.

[Pearl River]

Actually the modeling is spread all over the place. Depending on how strong the system get's, will depend on how it's steered too. The model's have been wavering all day, as they usually do. Right now, the trof appears to be moving more west to east and not southeast. This could change too. EWG, I agree with you. Nothing is written in stone with these things.

[jasons2k]

I think tonight will be critical. I don't think the FL panhandle is set in stone just yet. The visibles of the LLC concern me a bit.

[Toro694]

Actually the modeling is spread all over the place. Depending on how strong the system get's, will depend on how it's steered too. The model's have been wavering all day, as they usually do. Right now, the trof appears to be moving more west to east and not southeast. This could change too. EWG, I agree with you. Nothing is written in stone with these things.

Models spread all over the place?
Where is this map at? The ones I see all are pretty much in agreement to a hit somewhere around the northern part of the Fl west coast.

[Air Force Met]

Uh, there is one very crappy model that has it going in the general direction of Texas. There are , 40 or 50 that has it going the exact other way.
I think to suggest that it may go towards Texas, from a person in Texas, when all other data says otherwise could be thought of as well,,,,,
And it isn't spelled troff.

Actually...he spelled it "trof"...

And in the weather biz...that is how meteorologists abreviate it on weather charts: TROF

At least that's how I've done it for 19 years...maybe I'm wrong...and all the other mets around too.

[Toro694]

Well, in english class it is spelled trough.
OK, seeing how you are from TX too, when is it turning towards Houston?

[mvtrucking]

Actually the modeling is spread all over the place. Depending on how strong the system get's, will depend on how it's steered too. The model's have been wavering all day, as they usually do. Right now, the trof appears to be moving more west to east and not southeast. This could change too. EWG, I agree with you. Nothing is written in stone with these things.

Models spread all over the place?
Where is this map at? The ones I see all are pretty much in agreement to a hit somewhere around the northern part of the Fl west coast.

Hopefully it doesn't "hit" anywhere. Prefer just a rainmaker only.

[Toro694]

TRANSITION IS STILL EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD NEAR
THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.


FORECASTER KNABB

Looks like Knabb doesn't abbreviate?

[Toro694]

Everywhere but the notheast needs this rainmaker. Maybe that is why so much fighting for it!

[Audrey2Katrina]

Uh, there is one very crappy model that has it going in the general direction of Texas. There are , 40 or 50 that has it going the exact other way.
I think to suggest that it may go towards Texas, from a person in Texas, when all other data says otherwise could be thought of as well,,,,,
And it isn't spelled troff.

I'm no mod here; but I've seen way too much of this to just let it slip by. If you keep up that kind of uncalled for personal stuff, it won't take long before one will let you know it in no uncertain terms. I try to simply overlook things like grammar and/or spelling because, essentially, this is a WEATHER forum, not a syntax/grammar/spelling one. I would recommend that if you wish to personally disagree, or make those kinds of remarks, you try using the PM instead of the boards. JMHO.

FWIW, I, too, feel this storm could wind up going quite literally in any direction once it hits the central Gulf. And God, in heaven knows that I want NO part of any tropical action this year. Last year was quite enough!

A2K

[Stratosphere747]

Well, in english class it is spelled trough.
OK, seeing how you are from TX too, when is it turning towards Houston?

Well...While some of the other posters can be sketchy relative to their location and future track of a system. AFM is the last one on this board that would do anything near this....