GOM Loop Current

#1 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 5:08 pm

by moving NNW looks to me like it will have ample time in the GOM loop current? Thoughts?

Aquawind · #2 Postby **Aquawind** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 5:18 pm

Well unless the LLC actually forms and convection consolidates I don't think the SSTs will have much to say compared to the affects from Shear and dry air.. Water Temps are not inhibiting development now. I don't think the sysytem is organized enough to really get the machine going. Let's just say they won't prohibit the system..imo

#3 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 5:19 pm

Aquawind wrote:Well unless the LLC actually forms and convection consolidates I don't think the SSTs will have much to say compared to the affects from Shear and dry air.. Water Temps are not inhibiting development now. I don't think the sysytem is organized enough to really get the machine going. Let's just say they won't prohibit the system..imo

Thanks Paul you are probably right, he shear is still a bit brisk out of the WSW....so SSTs in the loop current shouldn't matter (maybe)

Audrey2Katrina · #4 Postby **Audrey2Katrina** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 5:19 pm

Haven't checked all the SST's in the loop. I know they're upper 80's around the keys... lower 80's closer to the central and western Gulf. Upper level atmospheric conditions will play a big part.

A2K

#5 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 5:20 pm

Audrey2Katrina wrote:Haven't checked all the SST's in the loop. I know they're upper 80's around the keys... lower 80's closer to the central and western Gulf. Upper level atmospheric conditions will play a big part.

A2K

Any chance in your opinion Audrey2Katrina for some pretty rapid intensification once in the GOM loop current....? It's the same loop current that have caused so many systems to explode so quickly...

ronjon · #6 Postby **ronjon** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 5:23 pm

boca_chris wrote:
Audrey2Katrina wrote:Haven't checked all the SST's in the loop. I know they're upper 80's around the keys... lower 80's closer to the central and western Gulf. Upper level atmospheric conditions will play a big part.

A2K

Any chance in your opinion Audrey2Katrina for some pretty rapid intensification once in the GOM loop current....? It's the same loop current that have caused so many systems to explode so quickly...

BC, it would explode if it wasn't being sheared from the south with so much dry air entrainment. Looks like it is slowly getting stronger despite the less than favorable environment according to the latest RECON.

#7 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 5:24 pm

ronjon wrote:
boca_chris wrote:
Audrey2Katrina wrote:Haven't checked all the SST's in the loop. I know they're upper 80's around the keys... lower 80's closer to the central and western Gulf. Upper level atmospheric conditions will play a big part.

A2K

Any chance in your opinion Audrey2Katrina for some pretty rapid intensification once in the GOM loop current....? It's the same loop current that have caused so many systems to explode so quickly...

BC, it would explode if it wasn't being sheared from the south with so much dry air entrainment. Looks like it is slowly getting stronger despite the less than favorable environment according to the latest RECON.

Ronjon - that is very scary and I am glad UL conditions are not very favorable for rapid intensification - or else we would see a hurricane by now more than likely.

Audrey2Katrina · #8 Postby **Audrey2Katrina** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 5:26 pm

BC, it would explode if it wasn't being sheared from the south with so much dry air entrainment. Looks like it is slowly getting stronger despite the less than favorable environment according to the latest RECON.

I agree with this having looked at the latest Loop pics. If it could get better organized and sit in that loop in the area between Cuba and SW Florida, it could well develop into the first hurricane; however I feel this unlikely.

A2K

HurricaneHunter914 · #9 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 5:47 pm

Would have been a Cat-2 by now if the shear and dry air was gone.

#10 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 5:47 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Would have been a Cat-2 by now if the shear and dry air was gone.

Hey it's early June not September

Audrey2Katrina · #11 Postby **Audrey2Katrina** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 6:13 pm

Hey it's early June not September

In principle I completely agree, Chris; but we here in Louisiana (well some of us :wink:

) can still remember AUDREY... which was a June storm that reached Cat 4 when it struck.... let's hope there's no repeat of that! We don't NEED no storms up here!

A2K

Cyclenall · #12 Postby **Cyclenall** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 8:16 pm

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Would have been a Cat-2 by now if the shear and dry air was gone.

What??? That's way to powerful! It would be around 55 Knots by now not a CAT2 hurricane! That would be very rapid strengthening going on! And everyone would panic as well.

If only there was no shear everything would be going in full gear for TD1. There currently is moist air where it is right nowso that wouldn't be a problem. Water temps are great and everything so I would see early Dennis type strengthening.

Audrey2Katrina · #13 Postby **Audrey2Katrina** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 8:24 pm

I would see early Dennis type strengthening.

Uhh, I know you said "early" but Dennis attained Cat. 4 status.. but that is beyond the point. There still seems to be a lot of shear taking place, and the probability is that the trough coming down will pick it up and give Florida a nice amount of rain with some brisk winds.

JMHO

A2K

Cyclenall · #14 Postby **Cyclenall** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 8:35 pm

Audrey2Katrina wrote:
I would see early Dennis type strengthening.

Uhh, I know you said "early" but Dennis attained Cat. 4 status.. but that is beyond the point.

????? Yes and?

Audrey2Katrina · #15 Postby **Audrey2Katrina** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 8:45 pm

Selective quoting will get you nowhere fast.

Hey, Cycle... look if you're in here to discuss the weather... then DO IT.. if you're itching to ruffle feathers, then find some kiddy chatroom and take it there, okay? You really need to get rid of the attitude, and try sticking to the topic without all the sarcasm and superlatives. :roll:

Now if you wish to discuss the TOPIC of this thread, feel free to do so, otherwise, take it somewhere else.

A2K

ROCK · #16 Postby **ROCK** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 8:50 pm

TD 1 is not going bomb ala Rita, Katrina over the loop current. There is way to much shear and dry air for this happen. Plus this blob hasn't consolidated enough to bomb. Rain and some wind in FL and thats about it.

Cyclenall · #17 Postby **Cyclenall** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:10 pm

Audrey2Katrina wrote:Selective quoting will get you nowhere fast.

Hey, Cycle... look if you're in here to discuss the weather... then DO IT.. if you're itching to ruffle feathers, then find some kiddy chatroom and take it there, okay? You really need to get rid of the attitude, and try sticking to the topic without all the sarcasm and superlatives.

Now if you wish to discuss the TOPIC of this thread, feel free to do so, otherwise, take it somewhere else.

A2K

You didn't make sense in your last post. Selective quoting was not included because you went to another subject about shear. The reason why I have a attitude is because i'm getting annoyed slowly.

Now if you wish to discuss the TOPIC of this thread, feel free to do so, otherwise, take it somewhere else.

I was until I got confused at your comment.

Audrey2Katrina · #18 Postby **Audrey2Katrina** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:11 pm

I don't see much more than a blustery rain event either. The loop is warming up; but it's a long way yet from what it was when Katrina and Rita swelled up in it.

A2K

Audrey2Katrina · #19 Postby **Audrey2Katrina** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:17 pm

You didn't make sense in your last post. Selective quoting was not included because you went to another subject about shear. The reason why I have a attitude is because i'm getting annoyed slowly.

You can get annoyed all you wish, just don't let it overrun onto the thread, okay? The subject of "shear" was taken into account with all the other factors being discussed pertaining to TD1. Fast or slow... take annoyance to another place.

I was until I got confused at your comment.

Then find a civil way to express your confusion. Demeaning and pejorative comments will get you nowhere. Now if this back-and-forth persists, it will be tantamount to hijacking a thread--STICK to the topic.

The comment about Dennis was confusing, if we must talk confusion. In the first place it began as a TD in the SE Caribbean, not the NW... secondly it was much better organized and not being sheared all over the place. It was predicted to be a hurricane within 24-48 hours of its becoming a depression, and it was certainly nowhere near the gulf loop, which IS the topic of the thread. By the time it hit the Loop it was a major hurricane.

A2K

Aquawind · #20 Postby **Aquawind** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:22 pm

Keep your attitude at home imeadiately Cyclenall or your gonna have a problem here..

GOM Loop Current

GOM Loop Current

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