Tropical Storm Alberto

[Opal storm]

Does TD1 remind anyone of Arlene from last year pretty much in the same area.

Reminds me a lot of Arlene.Same area and same poor environment.

[Cyclenall]

Some of the things i'm reading here really are crazy. People, this Depression is not a waste of time!! Some people think it will go poof today. I highly doubt that will happen. And people who are questioning if this was ever a TD to begin with, the NHC will look funny if they called a non-TC a depression.

[Extremeweatherguy]

still 35mph at 4pm. They also say it has slowed a lot.

[HurricaneHunter914]

What I'm trying to say is MOST SYSTEMS WITH RAIN THIS YEAR THAT HAVE CAME NEAR FLORIDA DISAPPATE!

[boca]

My friend wants to go deep sea fishing off the coast tonight my reply was dude theirs a depression out there. He said sun or rain I'm fishing. I said have fun throwing up.

[cheezyWXguy]

pretty much...it kinda looks the same also

you talking about Arlene?

i meant the environment

[Evil Jeremy]

...Poorly-organized depression producing heavy rains in western
Cuba...
...Air Force plane still investigating the system...
Interests in the eastern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress
of this system.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 400 PM CDT...2100z...the elongated center of Tropical Depression
One was estimated near latitude 21.8 north...longitude 85.7 west or
about 50 miles...85 km...west of Cabo San Antonio on the western
tip of Cuba.

The depression has slowed down this afternoon and is estimated to be
moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph. A slightly faster
motion toward the north-northwest is expected to resume during the
next several hours. This motion should bring the center of the
depression into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico later tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours...
and the depression could become a tropical storm tonight or
tomorrow.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb...29.65 inches.
At this time...the main hazard associated with the depression is
heavy rainfall. The depression is expected to produce total
rainfall accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over the western half of
Cuba...with isolated totals of 30 inches over the higher terrain.
This could cause devastating flash floods and mud slides. Additional
rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is possible over the Cayman Islands.
Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches are possible over the northeastern
portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. There is also the potential for
heavy rainfall of 4 to 8 inches possible over the Florida Keys and
western Florida through Monday.

Repeating the 400 PM CDT position...21.8 N...85.7 W. Movement
toward...north-northwest near 6 mph. Maximum sustained winds...35
mph. Minimum central pressure...1004 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
1000 PM CDT.

Forecaster Knabb


$$

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

TD One would have been a TS or a Hurricane by now if that convection was over the "centers".

[cheezyWXguy]

i think the convection is covering it...i think it looks like its reforming over cuba

[Grease Monkey]

Updated: 5 p.m. EDT
Location: 21.8 N, 85.7 W
Moving: NNW at 5 mph
Wind: 35 mph, gusts to 45 mph
Pressure: 1004 mb (29.64 in)

[spinfan4eva]

I noticed something... Apparently government of Cuba ignored the NHC advisories from this morning and did not issue the tropical storm warning that the NHC recommended.

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE RECOMMENDED FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO AND ISLE OF YOUTH.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM CDT.

Looks like we will have to wait till 11pm to find out what recon finds

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 PM CDT.

[MiamiensisWx]

I think the synoptics favor a reformation of the center closer to the main convective mass; in fact, by looking at the latest visible imagery, this may be starting to happen, especially in the region of 85W and 20N to 25N. Look here. This could potentiall result in a slightly better chance to reach tropical storm status, in my opinion, since dry air is one of the biggest factors inhibiting further strengthening of the system right now. As the center reforms, we may see a consolidating burst of convection, allowing slight intensification.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

I'm kinda suprised this thing is poorly organized. Barely any shear over the system right now, and if I'm correct that high shear that is above the system should help enchance organiztaion like it did to Wilma, am I right?

[CrazyC83]

Some of the things i'm reading here really are crazy. People, this Depression is not a waste of time!! Some people think it will go poof today. I highly doubt that will happen. And people who are questioning if this was ever a TD to begin with, the NHC will look funny if they called a non-TC a depression.

Grand Cayman had over 25 inches of rain and it is called "a waste of time"?

[Extremeweatherguy]

they still havn't updated the discussion.

[GalvestonDuck]

Remember, gang -- please ignore the snerts and trolls.

If someone's first (or second or twentieth) post is trouble, just let it slide and we'll snag it. The more replies you make to the snert, the more attention they get and the more publicity that one lone post gets (which means more for us to delete). To those who replied -- your posts have been snagged out in order to remove his also (since many of you quoted him when you replied).

If it's really bad, PLEASE PM a mod. Do not reply publicly to the trolls.

[WindRunner]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF

I'm kinda suprised this thing is poorly organized. Barely any shear over the system right now, and if I'm correct that high shear that is above the system should help enchance organiztaion like it did to Wilma, am I right?

Poorly worded, but yes, the shear to the north (or above as you have it) will help enhance the upper level outflow for the system, once it gets a little more developed.

[HurricaneHunter914]

We'll have to get used to it because that will happen alot this year.

[CrazyC83]

Look at the enormous amount of dry air to the northwest of the depression in the Gulf. That is likely what is hindering development.

[CHRISTY]

5:00PM NHC update track.15z