SUMMER FORECAST 2003

[Allexpert Mike]

http://www.nemas.net/longrange/seasonal.php



Also a special thanks to Supercane and Tropicalwxwatcher who proved me wrong on westerly QBO idea.

[vbhoutex]

I didn't know you were involved with Nema. I haven't seen the proof of the easterly qbo yet, could someone post it?

[Stormsfury]

Hope this helps, Vbhoutex.

[Allexpert Mike]

That makes two of us on QBO,,,,,

I have been with NEMAS since February. I do 7-14 day outlooks, Severe forecasts, and zone and AFD's for MNP.

[grentz7721]

Uh, Mike, I disagree with your La Nina forecast about the Southeast
because even though the Southeast has warm conditions and rainy
weather right now. As in fact, The Southeast should see warm weather
with some sunny days and thunderstorms. The Southeast could also
see a few Severe Thunderstorms.

[Allexpert Mike]

weathergeorge-

Whats your point,,,,,I did go with average-above precip and temps. You just said you are going to get warm temps,,,so your agreeing not disagreeing.

What you see in the La Nina section is from typical La Nina's. La nina's tend to favor cool/wet summers,,,hence at the bottom is my forecast.

[grentz7721]

I did go with average-above precip and temps. You just said you are going to get warm temps,,,so your agreeing not disagreeing.

Mike,
My point is the Southeast is going to get warm temps. You're missing
the total point about this. As in Fact, The pattern shows The Southeast
will see warm temps and a weaker La Nina and above precipation
beacuse more storms are coming in the Southeast.

[vbhoutex]

I wish we had had more time to talk with Dr. Neal Frank at the local Hurricane Conference about La Nina. When I asked him about the fact it looked like it was coming back his answer was-"I'm not so sure we are going to see a true La Nina this year. Sometimes we go into a long neutral period and I think that may be what we are seeing right now and on into the season." He does agree however that we are going to see an above average season. he was more than willing to discuss, but had to get back to the station to start readying his forecasts for the day.

Stormsfury, I have seen those graphs before and I am beginning to understand them somewhat. Maybe I am a little dense on this or graph interpretation, but could you or someone offer a short explanation about each graph, both for my knowledge and others?

[weatherlover427]

If we have a neutral period this summer what could it spell for the season?

[Stormsfury]

Josh, even if we had a neutral year, other factors should be in place this Tropical season to still allow for an above average season ...

David (VBhoutex), I hope this will help some.

http://tao.atmos.washington.edu/data_sets/qbo/
http://www.atmos.ucla.edu/~cwhung/qbo.html

[Allexpert Mike]

I did go with average-above precip and temps. You just said you are going to get warm temps,,,so your agreeing not disagreeing.

Mike,
My point is the Southeast is going to get warm temps. You're missing
the total point about this. As in Fact, The pattern shows The Southeast
will see warm temps and a weaker La Nina and above precipation
beacuse more storms are coming in the Southeast.

Please just scroll down to FORECAST---- and where it says Southeastern US read it. The top part is an average of all la nina summers.

[Anonymous]

Mike, good forecast as always.

About the La Nina....evidence shows we WILL probably see a weak one develop sometime this season. This is due to the extreme cool anomalies below the surface of the equatorial Pacific ocean. But suppose we DO get a neutral phase this season...how would it influence the season differently? A neutral ENSO would probably mean a little less activity in the deep tropics and a little more up in the high latitudes. But, all in all, as SF said, the hurricane season would still end up an active one. So basically its a win-win situation as far as hurricanes go.

[grentz7721]

Oh, Okay. I just misread a section. I didn't know the Southeastern
Forecast is going to be the same thing as the Northeastern Forecast.
Thanks, Allexpert Mike.