TS Alberto Recon Reports

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Locked
Message
Author
User avatar
WindRunner
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5806
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
Contact:
Contact WindRunner

#141 Postby WindRunner » Sat Jun 10, 2006 1:37 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 101833
AF301 01AAA INVEST HDOB 18 KNHC
1826 2131N 08519W 00201 5057 201 012 252 240 013 00154 0000000000
1826. 2130N 08518W 00201 5057 196 014 256 236 014 00154 0000000000
1827 2129N 08517W 00201 5057 197 016 256 238 017 00153 0000000000
1827. 2128N 08515W 00200 5058 201 017 254 238 019 00152 0000000000
1828 2127N 08515W 00201 5058 199 014 252 238 017 00153 0000000000
1828. 2126N 08516W 00203 5057 184 013 254 238 013 00155 0000000000
1829 2125N 08517W 00200 5058 194 011 254 234 011 00151 0000000000
1829. 2124N 08518W 00202 5058 188 012 254 230 013 00153 0000000000
1830 2123N 08520W 00201 5058 190 010 252 238 010 00153 0000000000
1830. 2122N 08521W 00200 5058 190 011 254 238 012 00152 0000000000
1831 2122N 08522W 00202 5058 190 014 254 238 016 00153 0000000000
1831. 2121N 08524W 00201 5058 181 014 252 232 017 00152 0000000000
1832 2120N 08525W 00202 5058 190 011 250 236 011 00153 0000000000
1832. 2119N 08526W 00201 5058 187 012 252 238 013 00153 0000000000
1833 2118N 08527W 00201 5058 187 012 250 238 012 00152 0000000000
1833. 2117N 08528W 00203 5057 181 011 252 236 011 00155 0000000000
1834 2116N 08530W 00201 5057 177 011 254 236 011 00153 0000000000
1834. 2115N 08531W 00201 5057 182 012 256 236 012 00153 0000000000
1835 2114N 08532W 00201 5058 181 012 256 236 012 00153 0000000000
1835. 2113N 08533W 00201 5058 176 012 254 236 012 00153 0000000000

Still nothing :x
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
thunderchief
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 306
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2005 11:03 pm

#142 Postby thunderchief » Sat Jun 10, 2006 1:44 pm

Image
Last edited by thunderchief on Sat Jun 10, 2006 1:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
curtadams
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1122
Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2005 7:57 pm
Location: Orange, California
Contact:
Contact curtadams

#143 Postby curtadams » Sat Jun 10, 2006 1:45 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:I think the center is reforming near 23N, 87W. Here is a look at the IR loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

This is also where the 32 knot wind was recorded!


For spotting the center you want to look at the RGB loop. Yellow cloud motions indicate LLC's (although sometimes they can be MLCs). IR enhancements like AVN show you activity in the upper troposphere and that can be markedly displaced from the LL action in these sheared systems.
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#144 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Jun 10, 2006 1:45 pm

Wow
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
WindRunner
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5806
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
Contact:
Contact WindRunner

#145 Postby WindRunner » Sat Jun 10, 2006 1:48 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 101843
AF301 01AAA INVEST HDOB 19 KNHC
1836 2112N 08534W 00201 5058 178 012 252 238 012 00153 0000000000
1836. 2111N 08535W 00200 5058 176 012 252 240 013 00151 0000000000
1837 2110N 08537W 00201 5059 173 013 252 240 013 00151 0000000000
1837. 2109N 08538W 00202 5059 169 014 252 242 014 00152 0000000000
1838 2108N 08539W 00201 5059 170 015 254 240 015 00152 0000000000
1838. 2107N 08541W 00201 5059 174 016 252 236 017 00151 0000000000
1839 2107N 08542W 00201 5059 174 017 254 226 018 00152 0000000000
1839. 2106N 08543W 00202 5059 176 019 252 228 019 00153 1101000000
1840 2105N 08545W 00208 5059 173 018 254 224 019 00158 1101000000
1840. 2104N 08546W 00212 5058 171 015 252 238 016 00163 1101000000
1841 2104N 08548W 00211 5059 172 015 254 238 016 00161 1101000000
1841. 2103N 08549W 00210 5059 177 015 254 240 016 00160 1101000000
1842 2102N 08550W 00211 5059 173 015 252 240 016 00161 1101000000
1842. 2101N 08551W 00210 5059 172 015 252 242 015 00160 1101000000
1843 2059N 08551W 00211 5059 174 014 252 242 014 00160 1101000000
1843. 2058N 08552W 00210 5060 176 015 256 240 016 00159 1101000000
1844 2057N 08553W 00210 5060 178 016 254 238 016 00160 1101000000
1844. 2055N 08553W 00209 5060 174 015 254 240 015 00159 1101000000
1845 2055N 08555W 00213 5059 173 014 252 242 016 00163 1101000000
1845. 2054N 08556W 00209 5060 177 014 254 240 014 00159 1101000000


Winds and pressure heights going back up again (for the most part).
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
thunderchief
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 306
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2005 11:03 pm

#146 Postby thunderchief » Sat Jun 10, 2006 1:51 pm

looks like theres a broad poorly defined center.

and the strongest wind so far is well displaced, but you can see on sat imagery that the good stuff is to the east where the plane hasnt sampled yet.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#147 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jun 10, 2006 1:52 pm

A question:

How possible is that the highest winds with this system could be located near or over Cuba?

If the highest winds are over Cuba, then a dropsonde cannot be dropped.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

#148 Postby x-y-no » Sat Jun 10, 2006 1:56 pm

HURAKAN wrote:A question:

How possible is that the highest winds with this system could be located near or over Cuba?

If the highest winds are over Cuba, then a dropsonde cannot be dropped.


Oh, go ahead ... bop Castro on the head! :D
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
WindRunner
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5806
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
Contact:
Contact WindRunner

#149 Postby WindRunner » Sat Jun 10, 2006 1:57 pm

HURAKAN wrote:A question:

How possible is that the highest winds with this system could be located near or over Cuba?

If the highest winds are over Cuba, then a dropsonde cannot be dropped.


Looking at this loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html I have little doubt that the center has reformed, the question is did it reform north (where you can see a large, poorly defined, ciruclar shaped cloud formation heading due west about 23/87, also near 32kt wind report) or did it head west over Cuba, about where you can see a clear-cut circular blob of convection about halfway between the point of Cuba and the Isle of Youth, on the SW corner of the other convection. It's a toss-up to me at this point.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
WindRunner
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5806
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
Contact:
Contact WindRunner

#150 Postby WindRunner » Sat Jun 10, 2006 1:59 pm

SXXX50 KNHC 101853
AF301 01AAA INVEST HDOB 20 KNHC
1846 2053N 08557W 00211 5059 179 014 254 244 014 00161 1101000000
1846. 2052N 08558W 00210 5059 173 013 256 240 014 00160 1101000000
1847 2051N 08600W 00210 5060 168 013 256 240 013 00159 1101000000
1847. 2050N 08600W 00210 5059 169 012 256 238 013 00160 1101000000
1848 2049N 08601W 00210 5059 168 011 256 238 012 00160 0000000000
1848. 2048N 08602W 00211 5059 167 011 256 234 011 00160 0000000000
1849 2047N 08603W 00210 5059 172 011 256 236 012 00160 0000000000
1849. 2045N 08603W 00212 5059 171 012 256 236 013 00161 0000000000
1850 2044N 08602W 00209 5058 172 015 256 238 016 00159 0000000000
1850. 2043N 08602W 00211 5059 174 017 256 240 018 00160 0000000000
1851 2042N 08601W 00209 5059 173 018 256 234 018 00158 0000000000
1851. 2040N 08600W 00211 5059 176 019 256 234 019 00161 0000000000
1852 2039N 08559W 00210 5059 179 018 256 236 019 00160 0000000000
1852. 2038N 08559W 00210 5059 179 019 254 234 019 00160 0000000000
1853 2037N 08558W 00210 5059 180 019 256 236 019 00159 0000000000
1853. 2035N 08557W 00211 5059 180 018 254 238 018 00160 0000000000
1854 2034N 08557W 00210 5059 180 019 254 238 019 00159 0000000000
1854. 2033N 08557W 00212 5059 183 017 252 242 018 00161 0000000000
1855 2031N 08558W 00210 5059 185 017 254 242 018 00159 0000000000
1855. 2030N 08558W 00210 5059 187 017 256 242 018 00159 0000000000

Wind picking up (kind of) and pressure still fluctuating.
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#151 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Jun 10, 2006 2:00 pm

If its not just north of northwestern Cuba then this will not likely be a depression very long. 22.5 north/84 west??? Looks to be the best turning/MLC. With good outflow to the north and east of the center. If it forms there it should have no problem becoming a tropical storm.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

#152 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Jun 10, 2006 2:02 pm

This is from cycloneye on another thread:

cycloneye wrote:[b]TPNT KGWC 101815
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE
B. 10/1731Z (39)
C. 22.6N/0
D. 86.3W/7
E. THREE/GOES-12
F. T1.0/1.0/STT: S0.0/3HRS -10/1731Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC 62NM W OF DG YIELDING A DT OF 1.0.
FT BASED ON DT. PT YIELDS 1.5.

AODT: 1.4 (SHEAR)

The center has reformed WELL NW!!! This could change the track dramatically.

Here is an IR loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
thunderchief
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 306
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2005 11:03 pm

#153 Postby thunderchief » Sat Jun 10, 2006 2:03 pm

The center will usually reform where the convection is... so if it does reform it should go east... I think that 32 knot wind max is pretty meaningless as to LLC.
0 likes   
Top
mtm4319
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1537
Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2004 2:47 am
Location: Mobile, AL

#154 Postby mtm4319 » Sat Jun 10, 2006 2:03 pm

Image

(Edit: Added possible new center.)
Last edited by mtm4319 on Sat Jun 10, 2006 2:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

#155 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sat Jun 10, 2006 2:04 pm

WindRunner wrote:SXXX50 KNHC 101833
AF301 01AAA INVEST HDOB 18 KNHC
1826 2131N 08519W 00201 5057 201 012 252 240 013 00154 0000000000
1826. 2130N 08518W 00201 5057 196 014 256 236 014 00154 0000000000
1827 2129N 08517W 00201 5057 197 016 256 238 017 00153 0000000000
1827. 2128N 08515W 00200 5058 201 017 254 238 019 00152 0000000000
1828 2127N 08515W 00201 5058 199 014 252 238 017 00153 0000000000
1828. 2126N 08516W 00203 5057 184 013 254 238 013 00155 0000000000
1829 2125N 08517W 00200 5058 194 011 254 234 011 00151 0000000000
1829. 2124N 08518W 00202 5058 188 012 254 230 013 00153 0000000000
1830 2123N 08520W 00201 5058 190 010 252 238 010 00153 0000000000
1830. 2122N 08521W 00200 5058 190 011 254 238 012 00152 0000000000
1831 2122N 08522W 00202 5058 190 014 254 238 016 00153 0000000000
1831. 2121N 08524W 00201 5058 181 014 252 232 017 00152 0000000000
1832 2120N 08525W 00202 5058 190 011 250 236 011 00153 0000000000
1832. 2119N 08526W 00201 5058 187 012 252 238 013 00153 0000000000
1833 2118N 08527W 00201 5058 187 012 250 238 012 00152 0000000000
1833. 2117N 08528W 00203 5057 181 011 252 236 011 00155 0000000000
1834 2116N 08530W 00201 5057 177 011 254 236 011 00153 0000000000
1834. 2115N 08531W 00201 5057 182 012 256 236 012 00153 0000000000
1835 2114N 08532W 00201 5058 181 012 256 236 012 00153 0000000000
1835. 2113N 08533W 00201 5058 176 012 254 236 012 00153 0000000000

Still nothing :x




someone please teach me on how you understand these things!
0 likes   
Top
rockyman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 12:24 pm
Location: Dauphin Island, AL

#156 Postby rockyman » Sat Jun 10, 2006 2:04 pm

According to the surface observations, the lowest pressure is over Cozumel

(click here http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html then select MSLP)

I think the NHC has the center pretty well pegged...it's perhaps a little to the WSW, just northeast of Cozumel

We'll know soon.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

#157 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Jun 10, 2006 2:05 pm

actually, according to my post above, the new center is now north of the Yucatan pen.
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#158 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Jun 10, 2006 2:06 pm

I think the center has reformed near the northern coast of Cuba at 22.5 north/84.2/84.5 west...Also it appears to be heading northeastward...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

#159 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Jun 10, 2006 2:07 pm

Is everybody missing my post? I am not posting my opinion. The NHC is saying that the center is now at 22.6N/86.3W.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#160 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Jun 10, 2006 2:08 pm

This is driving me crazy. Everyone is posting where they think the center is and I think not even the NHC knows were the center is.
0 likes   
Top
Locked

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 34 guests