Long range forecasts for powerful wave...

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benny
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Long range forecasts for powerful wave...

#1 Postby benny » Sat Jun 10, 2006 12:50 pm

168 hour GFS

I know everyone is watching something else... but the GFS has been pretty consistent in amplifying the large wave currently around about 37w or so. In most cases I wouldn't mention it... but it has done almost the same thing for the past 3 model runs. There are no huge convective feedback spikes in the model that create some sort of bogus vortex... it seems to spin up in a rather realistic way. Look at the associated 168 hour 200 mb plot. If that were to happen the shear would be minimal.. and again it seems to be generated by large-scale divergence, not some point convection contaminating the whole plots. Not much support from the other global models yet but we shall see...

By the way things are getting quite gusty in Miami as the first outer band of the depression rolls through...
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wxwatcher91
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#2 Postby wxwatcher91 » Sat Jun 10, 2006 1:06 pm

this morning's TWD @ 805am

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W S OF 15N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS IS
A LARGE WELL-DEFINED WAVE WITH A V-SHAPE IN BOTH THE LOW AND
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 8N
BETWEEN 34W-37W.
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#3 Postby Praxus » Sat Jun 10, 2006 1:11 pm

:eek: > buckles up for another crazy season <
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#4 Postby canegrl04 » Sat Jun 10, 2006 1:15 pm

Meet 2006 tropical Atlantic season. Same as the last one :eek:
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#5 Postby Cyclenall » Sat Jun 10, 2006 1:27 pm

canegrl04 wrote:Meet 2006 tropical Atlantic season. Same as the last one :eek:

Yep, but I have to wait and see what happens before I jump to anything. Same as the last one sounds right to me so far. Tropical Depression 1 formed near where Alrene did and 40 hours after too. The track isn't the same but that could change as well.
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Ola
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#6 Postby Ola » Sat Jun 10, 2006 2:10 pm

FXCA62 TJSJ 100836
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
436 AM AST SAT JUN 10 2006

MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS
OUR LOCAL REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WAVE IT WILL INCREASE WINDS
AND SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY.
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