How strong a storm can the gulf support now?

[zlaxier]

Aren't the waters still fairly cool in June? So we are talking max strength of a cat 1, but a tropical storm is the most likely? Could this get stronger than cat 1 in the gulf?

[Scorpion]

The GOM can support a 5 if upper level conditions are good enough.

[CHRISTY]

Aren't the waters still fairly cool in June? So we are talking max strength of a cat 1, but a tropical storm is the most likely? Could this get stronger than cat 1 in the gulf?

[zlaxier]

I just checked. Lots of heat potential in that loop current. But a 5 in June? I would be shocked.

[Audrey2Katrina]

I just checked. Lots of heat potential in that loop current. But a 5 in June? I would be shocked.

I would be floored.... and intoxicated!

A2K

[Scorpion]

Oh, no way can there be a 5 in June. The upper level conditions simply aren't there. A 3 wouldn't surprise me, though.

[NewOrleansMeteorologist]

Audrey way back when was probably a Cat 4 in the Gulf before landfall. But that was in late June.

Anything is possible. But like other posters have said, the upper level currents are likely too strong this early in the season to support a 5.

[CrazyC83]

I'd say a Category 3 is the maximum with the current upper-level conditions. Optimal conditions are extremely rare in June and even July (last year was an exception with Dennis and Emily)

[Audrey2Katrina]

Yes, exceptionally rare; and I just don't think the conditions are ripe enough at all for a major... personally, I hope they never will be.

A2K

[CrazyC83]

Yes, exceptionally rare; and I just don't think the conditions are ripe enough at all for a major... personally, I hope they never will be.

A2K

By mid-July, they should be ripe for a major, and by early August, they could very well be ripe for a Category 5.

I'd be shocked if Alberto gets above Category 2. I see a Category 1 with a TS landfall.

[Sean in New Orleans]

The water temps could support anything. But, it takes more than water. Right now, as dry as the air is over the GOM is, it would gulp up anything tropical and that would be the end of it. There is no moisture in the air over the GOM and that is a requirement for tropical systems to sustain life and grow. If patterns change, I think we could see something significant in the GOM in a matter of weeks, but, the question is this...do we see any pattern changes???

[AL Chili Pepper]

I predict this will be a typical early season storm, mediocre in the southern Gulf and ragged as in nears the coast. Hopefully we'll all get a good rainmaker out of it and it'll take a more westerly coarse, putting more of us on the wet side.

[canegrl04]

I would be floored.... and intoxicated




no need to drink over this

[ronjon]

Looks like the system is starting to wrap up now where wxman57 indicated. I see good outflow to the north and east. The ULL over the Yucatan yesterday is moving off toward the west into the BOC. There still is a fair amount of NE shear on the west side of the system but that may decrease with time as the ULL moves off and the subtropical jet relaxes a bit. The dry air in the GOM is probably limiting convection on the west side. The convection to the north does appear to be starting to wrap back around to the west. Overall appearance looks to be a TD and quite possibly a weak TS depending on what the RECON finds out.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[cajungal]

For a storm to get ripe and strong in the gulf, you need water temps above 80 degrees which we have of course. High pressure aloft. And low shear. The shear is still high at the present time and lots of dry air which will hamper rapid development.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Outflow is definitely more impressive; but it still needs to wrap around the center better. One wonders what the role of the trough to the NE will be... still most models veer it off to the N, the NE.... I dunno, I seem to think a more westerly movement is possible. You're right, Cajungal, the dry air in the N GOM will be an impedment; but the shear is supposed to drop over time.

A2K

[edbri871]

The water off of the coast of Naples is about 86-87 degrees already

[Audrey2Katrina]

No doubt there are hot spots... and the GOM is traditionally a rather warm body of water... which is why I much prefer these storms to stay the heck away from it.

A2K