center reforming?

cpdaman · #1 Postby **cpdaman** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 11:53 am

could this be reforming in western cuba and headed for south west florida visible satelite shows former weak center 21.3 85.6 spinning down toward cancun

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

outflow appears to be developing nicely for this set up and banding structures appear to be developing from south east of keys and also west of south west florida

i'm looking in meantime if anyone has link what is the shear forecast for northern cuba and south florida

#2 Postby **Hurricanehink** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 12:04 pm

Hmm, that's moving west-southwestward. However, it looks weak, and I personally doubt it will become the dominant center.

ronjon · #3 Postby **ronjon** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 12:06 pm

Looks like there is a broad elongated LLC with multiple swirls rotating around it. This is system has a distinct subtropical look to it and is typical for early season storms that have a lot of dry air in them that develop off old fronts or troughs. The NHC will stick with the broad center until convection increases near it and it tightens. It may still be classified as a weak TS if winds are strong enough. The pressire of 1001 mb from a ship report with 39 kt winds would certainly be enough for a 40 mph TS.

'CaneFreak · #4 Postby **'CaneFreak** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 12:12 pm

I agree ronjon....there is a distinct possibility that it could become a weak TS if the recon finds a distinct center and the winds from the buoy data are correct...

Extremeweatherguy · #5 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 12:19 pm

I think the swirl SE of cozumel has the best chance of becoming the main center.

#6 Postby **MWatkins** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 1:49 pm

Looks like there are all sorts of centers running around down there based on visible imagery:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

That WSW shooting circulation loks to be slowing down and may rotate back around...and look there's another one just to the north of that one.

This system is not looking very organized at all and there is some shear just to the north. I havent had mych time to look at this as I am on vacation...but to me this looks like a right-handed system...a primary rain event with a little wind in bands...and I would give it a 65% chance of getting a name.

MW

Extremeweatherguy · #7 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 1:58 pm

This is from cycloneye on another thread:

cycloneye wrote:[b]TPNT KGWC 101815
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE
B. 10/1731Z (39)
C. 22.6N/0
D. 86.3W/7
E. THREE/GOES-12
F. T1.0/1.0/STT: S0.0/3HRS -10/1731Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LLCC 62NM W OF DG YIELDING A DT OF 1.0.
FT BASED ON DT. PT YIELDS 1.5.

AODT: 1.4 (SHEAR)

The center has reformed WELL NW!!! This could change the track dramatically.

#8 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 2:02 pm

in this case, they could issue a special advisory if it is that big of a change.

HurricaneHunter914 · #9 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 2:54 pm

I'm not sure about a special advisory, probably they'll just mention it in the next advisory. I can't beleive the NHC thinks this might be a TS later today, there isn't even convetion on the center. I wouldn't be suprised if it disappates tomorrow.

Audrey2Katrina · #10 Postby **Audrey2Katrina** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 3:48 pm

The center has reformed WELL NW!!! This could change the track dramatically.

I believe this to be the case as well. This thing hasn't made up its mind yet as to exactly where its final central vortex is going to be; but all interests along the entire GOM should be keeping up with it--especially in areas of SE LA/Miss which could use rain; but we gotta worry about a strong TS with conditions around here.

A2K

Extremeweatherguy · #11 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 3:50 pm

As of the 5pm advisory...the center is at 21.8N/85.7W with 35mph winds moving NNW at 6mph.

center reforming?

center reforming?

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