It's ANOTHER Hurricane Season

[Cyclenall]

When I read this part I thought some more. You said this hurricane season has nothing to do with the 2005 one. I'm going to disagree here, for a few reasons. 2004 was crazy and then 2005 was worse. Why is that? It's because something is up. It's just getting too crazy to believe what is happening in the tropics. When I woke up that October 19th of 2005 and turned on the TV to hear what Wilma had done, I felt that anything can now happen and I was going through shock. No one knew that was going to happen (at least anyone I have ever read about).

Almost every met and met organization has figured that 2006 will be no 2005. Of course anything can happen; but I sincerely doubt it would be anything like 2005.
A2K

That's what i'm talking about, every met and met organization says this "2006 will be very active, but not as bad as last year". Now my question is: How the heck do you know that? Are you just saying that because you think it's impossible to beat that kind of hurricane season? Give me some answers! I remember they said something like that back after the 2004 hurricane season. Did anyone think 2005 would be worse then 2004? I doubt many would. And yes, anything can happen, that's what we learned last year. If you doubt it would be anything like 2005, then have a back-up plan just in case .

[Audrey2Katrina]

That's what i'm talking about, every met and met organization says this "2006 will be very active, but not as bad as last year". Now my question is: How the heck do you know that? Are you just saying that because you think it's impossible to beat that kind of hurricane season? Give me some answers! I remember they said something like that back after the 2004 hurricane season. Did anyone think 2005 would be worse then 2004? I doubt many would. And yes, anything can happen, that's what we learned last year. If you doubt it would be anything like 2005, then have a back-up plan just in case .

Thank you, I've been through quite a few of these seasons... as the name suggests... from Audrey of '57, through Katrina of '05... And as for the "answers" you request, there are no definitive ways to satisfy the query. Simple probabilities alone seem to suggest that the odds are very much against 3 consecutive seasons like the past two have been; and I'm sure the pro-mets know a lot more than either you or I. The ITCZ has remained lower this year than last--substantially as far as where it was by this time last year. The SST's while warm, are cooler. And of course a thousand other factors must be considered, and I'm sure they've considered them all. Again, yes, anything is possible; but I wouldn't be looking for 2006 to be anything like 2005. We shall see.

A2K

[Cyclenall]

Simple probabilities alone seem to suggest that the odds are very much against 3 consecutive seasons like the past two have been; and I'm sure the pro-mets know a lot more than either you or I.

That's just a guess though. Odds are odds.

The ITCZ has remained lower this year than last--substantially as far as where it was by this time last year.

Substantially? If this thing was way lower then last year it must have been so high that it would have been too high! I don't know much about the ITCZ since I only started hearing the term 3 months ago. I want a picture taken from last year around this time to compare the ITCZ.

The SST's while warm, are cooler.

Well, since certain areas are warmer then last year (GOM), I tend to cancel it out. Overall it's pretty normal and looks almost the same as last year. If it is cooler then last year, it would be a tiny difference.

And of course a thousand other factors must be considered, and I'm sure they've considered them all.

Those other "factors" I want to learn about and take a look at.

Again, yes, anything is possible; but I wouldn't be looking for 2006 to be anything like 2005. We shall see.

You keep saying that .

I just had a MAJOR Dacha a View (sp??)! That was super weird! Everything was like I had done it before, the post itself, the forum colours, the exact time, and the text!!

[Sean in New Orleans]

It's dejavu.....

[T-man]

No dejavu over here please! If I find myself ripping out carpet, sheetrock, etc, just like last year, it might push me over the edge...

[Audrey2Katrina]

Again, yes, anything is possible; but I wouldn't be looking for 2006 to be anything like 2005. We shall see.

You keep saying that

Maybe I keep saying that because it's true

If this thing was way lower then last year it must have been so high that it would have been too high! I don't know much about the ITCZ since I only started hearing the term 3 months ago. I want a picture taken from last year around this time to compare the ITCZ.

Do a little legwork. The ITCZ isn't going rush up to 30 N, if that's what you're expecting; but we have been following it for some time, and when compared to when it moved last year, and the same for this year, it is later and has been slower.

As far as the SST's, unless you're talking about the Gulf Loop, they are not any warmer than last years' at this time; the loop itself seems to be a consistent hot-tub. Across the board this isn't something you can argue with total specificity (SST's)... but they are on the whole, throughout the basin, from what I've seen, lower than last years. Sounds to me like you just want to have another record-breaker; we have a lot of those around here. Maybe that's why the pro-mets are a little more pragmatic about it and sense a season that will not at all be what we saw in 2005.

PAX

A2K

[Audrey2Katrina]

Those other "factors" I want to learn about and take a look at.

Go for it! Strike up a discussion with one of our many pro-mets; you might find it a lot more enlightening than debating wishcasts from either end over here.

A2K

[Cyclenall]

Those other "factors" I want to learn about and take a look at.

Go for it! Strike up a discussion with one of our many pro-mets; you might find it a lot more enlightening than debating wishcasts from either end over here.

A2K

Yeah ok, it seems there is less talk about general hurricane topics like past hurricanes and such. I have a possible track and I want to see how likely this track is. The only problem is I used a Unisys track map instead of the storm2K one .

[Audrey2Katrina]

There are quite a few threads on "past' canes, especially during the "off" season, which is the season >I< like, (don't want any more here for quite a while). The Hurricane Aftermath forum also discusses past hurricanes, although more recent ones--usually.

A2K