Tropical Storm Alberto

[Extremeweatherguy]

MY feeling is that the center east of Cancun may try to take over. It already looks like some convection is trying to wrap around it.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I have a new spaghetti plot....

your green path is well north of the model initialization path. These are either not new model runs or the center has shifted well south.

These are the latest and greatest. Which green are you talking about?

the green path in which the storm has already taken. It is the boldest line on there. The end of that line is well north of where the models start.

[skysummit]

Extreme...nevermind, I see what you're saying. The "L" IS the current position. Most of these models are 00z (the new ones aren't out yet. Some are 06z, and two of them are 12z....one being the NAM.

[ronjon]

Looks like a heavy squall will be moving into Marathon in the next hour.


http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar/d ... duration=0

[Opal storm]

I heard on TWC that Grand Cayman has seen 23" of rain in the last 24 hours!

Dang,FL is going to get a heavy soaking out of this one.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I have a new spaghetti plot....

your green path is well north of the model initialization path. These are either not new model runs or the center has shifted well south.

These are the latest and greatest. Which green are you talking about?

the green path in which the storm has already taken. It is the boldest line on there. The end of that line is well north of where the models start.

I think he's looking at the L as part of the Line

[Bgator]

MY feeling is that the center east of Cancun may try to take over. It already looks like some convection is trying to wrap around it.

That one is supposedly a smaller vortex spinning off the actual LLC, and i see it to..

[CrazyC83]

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - Just my prediction.

My prediction sends the storm slightly more north and west of the forecast track. It also briefly develops it into a hurricane over the Loop Current but weakens it back to a tropical storm before landfall north of the mouth of the Suwannee River. The storm remains inland after landfall though.



Current - 21.5/85.6 - 35mph - 1003mb
6 hrs - 22.2/85.7 - 40mph - 1002mb
12 hrs - 23.0/85.9 - 50mph - 998mb
24 hrs - 24.6/86.0 - 65mph - 995mb
36 hrs - 26.0/85.5 - 70mph - 992mb
48 hrs - 27.3/84.8 - 75mph - 988mb
60 hrs - 28.4/84.2 - 70mph - 989mb
72 hrs - 29.6/83.7 - 65mph - 991mb - Inland
96 hrs - 34.4/80.6 - 30mph - 995mb - Inland
120 hrs - Absorbed by a front

[jlauderdal]

I still think the track will end up well west of the current forecast track...but it does seem like the new track is just slightly west and north of the old one. I think the furthest west scenario is Houston and the furthest east scenario is their current track (near Cedar Key).

Why do you feel this way when nearly all models disagree with that?

Cause he's extremeweatherguy

nobody can deny extremeweatherguy has looked for any opening regarding a westerly track thus texas landfall, we shall see what happens.

[WindRunner]

Outerbanker do you have a link verifying the 20 inches of rain in the Caymans? Thanks.

AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE DEPRESSION IS HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 30 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THIS COULD CAUSE DEVASTATING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. GRAND
CAYMAN ISLAND HAS REPORTED 22.72 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS... AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 5 TO 10 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THERE IS
ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE
OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND WESTERN FLORIDA FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

[stormie_skies]

I still think the track will end up well west of the current forecast track...but it does seem like the new track is just slightly west and north of the old one. I think the furthest west scenario is Houston and the furthest east scenario is their current track (near Cedar Key).

Why do you feel this way when nearly all models disagree with that?

Problem is, though... in order to run a model correctly, you have to start with the true center of circulation .... something that we don't seem to have figured out quite yet with this system. Right now NHC is using the "center of the centers" as the starting point of their predictions. If that doesn't end up being the true center, the forecast could change dramatically. Thats the problem with weak systems ...

NWS forecasters all along the Gulf Coast seem to have taken a "bear watch" stance. I'm with them ... lets wait and see. The NHC didn't stress its lack of confidence in this forecast for no reason...

LACKING ANY NEW TRACK GUIDANCE... THE
SCENARIOS PAINTED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY ALL REMAIN
POSSIBILITIES. THE GFS AND GFDL RECURVE THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD
AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE CANADIAN MODELS STALLS THE SYSTEM OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... AND THE UKMET TURNS IT WESTWARD
TOWARD TEXAS. MEANWHILE THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF MODELS SPLIT THE
DEPRESSION INTO MULTIPLE LOWS... WITH THE LARGER ONE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE LINES OF THE GFS AND GFDL TRACKS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL TREAT THIS AS A SINGLE RECURVING SYSTEM THAT
SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES. AS STATED PREVIOUSLY... THERE IS A GREATER THAN AVERAGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TRACK FORECAST.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I still think the track will end up well west of the current forecast track...but it does seem like the new track is just slightly west and north of the old one. I think the furthest west scenario is Houston and the furthest east scenario is their current track (near Cedar Key).

Why do you feel this way when nearly all models disagree with that?

Cause he's extremeweatherguy

nobody can deny extremeweatherguy has looked for any opening regarding a westerly track thus texas landfall, we shall see what happens.

I think it will be hard to see this thing work all the way to TX (but nothing is impossible), but I do think that this may be more of a LA to FL panhandle issue.

[tropicana]

Wow! 22.73inches of rain in last 24 hours on Grand Cayman! wow!
In addition, I saw a report earlier in the week that almost 13 inches of rain fell on Cayman Brac between last Saturday June 3 and 1pm on Wednesday Jun 7, almost half of this 6.11inches fell on Wednesday!

And they have had additional rainfall since then.

-justin-

[DESTRUCTION5]

MY feeling is that the center east of Cancun may try to take over. It already looks like some convection is trying to wrap around it.

That one is supposedly a smaller vortex spinning off the actual LLC, and i see it to..

If you guys are biting on that naked swirl moving SW as the real Center we can kiss TD 1 goodbye...

[Stratosphere747]

Great point Stormie, and what some have been trying to allude to, though coming on deaf ears. Once recon gets in there and finds the actual center, you can bet there will be some changes.

With that said, to this point it's hard to see this head anywhere except Florida unless there is a reformation of whatever center is out there.

[Extremeweatherguy]

MY feeling is that the center east of Cancun may try to take over. It already looks like some convection is trying to wrap around it.

That one is supposedly a smaller vortex spinning off the actual LLC, and i see it to..

If you guys are biting on that naked swirl moving SW as the real Center we can kiss TD 1 goodbye...

I don't think it is the real center right now...but it needs to be watched for the development of deeper convection around it just in case.

[x-y-no]

This gives me little comfort:

The depression remains poorly organized with several small
circulations rotating about a mean center. The initial motion
estimate is still 340/10 but remains quite uncertain. The
depression is being steered in between the upper-level low over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico and the subtropical ridge centered over
the western Atlantic. Lacking any new track guidance... the
scenarios painted in the previous advisory all remain
possibilities. The GFS and GFDL recurve the cyclone northeastward
around the subtropical ridge and ahead of the next trough over the
eastern United States. The Canadian models stalls the system over
the northern Gulf of Mexico... and the UKMET turns it westward
toward Texas. Meanwhile the NOGAPS and ECMWF models split the
depression into multiple lows... with the larger one moving
northeastward along the lines of the GFS and GFDL tracks. The
official forecast will treat this as a single recurving system that
should become extratropical along the East Coast of the United
States. As stated previously... there is a greater than average
amount of uncertainty in this track forecast.

Yeah, I got a late start this morning and just finished reviewing all the global runs.

The GFDL has backed way off its intensity from yesterday (I'm happy to say I probably won't have to eat my hat on live streming video) and now has a moderate to strong TS hitting the big bend area. I think the track looks reasonable but I think the WRF (which shears it apart a bit more during recurvature) has the better handle on intensity. I just don't see the structure hanging together quite as well as the GFDL has it in light of the likely shearing. My money is on a weak to moderate TS just a little bit to the right of the current official track.

[MGC]

Good Morning all, our new TD is a mess. Very lopsided. The dry air in the GOM is really going to hinder the TD development. I agree with the NHC forecast track. Doubt it reaches cane. Florida is going to get some good rain out of this.....MGC

[Weatherfreak14]

yes, I agree at most a say a 60-70mph tropicial storm, mainly a rain maker and surf maker for all east coast anf flordia.

[Extremeweatherguy]

My intensity estimate is for this to reach a 60mph TS (70mph if it's lucky) sometime tomorrow. The chance of it reaching Hurricane status is likely below 20% at this point.