Tropical Storm Alberto

rxdoc · #161 Postby **rxdoc** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:53 am

Looks to me like the vortex in the Yucatan channel is being ejected to the SW and the "predominant" vortex at the moment is just to the west of the tip of Cuba.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

mtm4319 · #162 Postby **mtm4319** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:54 am

HURAKAN wrote:It's interesting that we will have an intermediate advisory without watches and warning. Just recommendable warnings.

Yeah, I noticed that too. I guess Fidel hasn't rolled out of bed yet.

#163 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:56 am

I have a new spaghetti plot....

CHRISTY · #164 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:56 am

looks to me like that huge blob will spread all over southflorida.

mtm4319 · #165 Postby **mtm4319** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:57 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:I still think the track will end up well west of the current forecast track...but it does seem like the new track is just slightly west and north of the old one. I think the furthest west scenario is Houston and the furthest east scenario is their current track (near Cedar Key).

The shift in forecast track from 8am ET to 11am ET is negligible.

(the green line is the 8am track)

jdray · #166 Postby **jdray** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:57 am

wow Sky. That kind of says it all right there.

#167 Postby **fci** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 9:59 am

Couple of comments on posts above:

- Huge blob spreading over South Florida is the cirrus cloud deck and has little moisture to work with. See the forecast discussion from the Miami MWS

- Likelihood of a track as far west as Houston is improbable if you look at the history where almost all follow the track that is being shown by the NHC.

- Comment way earlier (not sure which thread I saw it in) that this is a good trial run for the Hurricane Season is, in my opinion; right on the mark. This system will probably be a TS but not a real strong one. Typical for this time of season and very predictable. (Of course, I kept saying that about most systems in 2005 and was completely wrong!) :roll:

#168 Postby **Frank P** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 10:01 am

right now the models are pretty clustered into Florida so unless something weird happens, and it's always possible with developing systems, sure looks like a big ole rainmaker with some gusty winds for Florida...

#169 Postby **OuterBanker** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 10:01 am

Looks like it could be good news for Fla. Typical for June storms almost all precip is east of the center and it very heavily laden with moisture (Grand Cayman already has had 20 plus inches in 24 hrs). With any luck it could track more north drenching the entire state. Also, even if it does track on the initial forecast path the Carolinas won't have to deal with it because everything is east of center.

Noles2006 · #170 Postby **Noles2006** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 10:02 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:I still think the track will end up well west of the current forecast track...but it does seem like the new track is just slightly west and north of the old one. I think the furthest west scenario is Houston and the furthest east scenario is their current track (near Cedar Key).

Why do you feel this way when nearly all models disagree with that?

#171 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 10:05 am

OuterBanker wrote:Looks like it could be good news for Fla. Typical for June storms almost all precip is east of the center and it very heavily laden with moisture (Grand Cayman already has had 20 plus inches in 24 hrs). With any luck it could track more north drenching the entire state. Also, even if it does track on the initial forecast path the Carolinas won't have to deal with it because everything is east of center.

Yes,Much of the Floirida Penninsula has been on a deficit of precipitation and this will help in a big way to if not terminate the drought,to aliviate greatly that.

Extremeweatherguy · #172 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 10:05 am

This gives me little comfort:

The depression remains poorly organized with several small
circulations rotating about a mean center. The initial motion
estimate is still 340/10 but remains quite uncertain. The
depression is being steered in between the upper-level low over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico and the subtropical ridge centered over
the western Atlantic. Lacking any new track guidance... the
scenarios painted in the previous advisory all remain
possibilities. The GFS and GFDL recurve the cyclone northeastward
around the subtropical ridge and ahead of the next trough over the
eastern United States. The Canadian models stalls the system over
the northern Gulf of Mexico... and the UKMET turns it westward
toward Texas. Meanwhile the NOGAPS and ECMWF models split the
depression into multiple lows... with the larger one moving
northeastward along the lines of the GFS and GFDL tracks. The
official forecast will treat this as a single recurving system that
should become extratropical along the East Coast of the United
States. As stated previously... there is a greater than average
amount of uncertainty in this track forecast.

vaffie · #173 Postby **vaffie** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 10:06 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:I still think the track will end up well west of the current forecast track...but it does seem like the new track is just slightly west and north of the old one. I think the furthest west scenario is Houston and the furthest east scenario is their current track (near Cedar Key).

I have a feeling that you're gonna be right--the predicted track is going to shift west. The models such as the GFS are still looking at it as an upper-level cold front spinoff, while it is taking on more and more low-level tropical characteristics. The directions it will take as an upper-level vs a low-level system are naturally different. The low-level swirl is clearly nearer to Cozumel, and is moving away from the big blow-up which everyone's focused on. Convection is starting to wrap around, but if it continues on a more northwesterly track, it's going to miss that cold front. Like everyone's saying, it really depends upon where the center ends up forming. Initial track of that center is super-important too--NNW and NW will be the deciding factor of where it ends up in the Gulf. The last few frames of the visual imagery really look like it's going westnorthwest at a pretty good clip too. I think the Big Bend of Florida has the greatest likelihood of getting hit, but all points west until possibly where I live, though less likely should keep an eye out.

#174 Postby **brunota2003** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 10:06 am

OuterBanker wrote:Looks like it could be good news for Fla. Typical for June storms almost all precip is east of the center and it very heavily laden with moisture (Grand Cayman already has had 20 plus inches in 24 hrs). With any luck it could track more north drenching the entire state. Also, even if it does track on the initial forecast path the Carolinas won't have to deal with it because everything is east of center.

Not completely true...will still have some squally weather depending on how close to us it gets and of course our overall favorite...some winds...maybe 30 knots sustained at the very most, depending on how strong it gets...but we wont have no where near as much to deal with as Florida, Cuba, etc provided it doesnt straighten itself out before then...just my $0.02

MortisFL · #175 Postby **MortisFL** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 10:07 am

Noles2006 wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:I still think the track will end up well west of the current forecast track...but it does seem like the new track is just slightly west and north of the old one. I think the furthest west scenario is Houston and the furthest east scenario is their current track (near Cedar Key).

Why do you feel this way when nearly all models disagree with that?

Cause he's extremeweatherguy

Extremeweatherguy · #176 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 10:07 am

skysummit wrote:I have a new spaghetti plot....

your green path is well north of the model initialization path. These are either not new model runs or the center has shifted well south.

whereverwx · #177 Postby **whereverwx** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 10:07 am

Well, here we go again.

Extremeweatherguy · #178 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 10:09 am

I heard on TWC that Grand Cayman has seen 23" of rain in the last 24 hours!

#179 Postby **Vortex** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 10:09 am

Outerbanker do you have a link verifying the 20 inches of rain in the Caymans? Thanks.

#180 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 10:10 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
skysummit wrote:I have a new spaghetti plot....

your green path is well north of the model initialization path. These are either not new model runs or the center has shifted well south.

These are the latest and greatest. Which green are you talking about?

Tropical Storm Alberto

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