Clint_TX wrote:U.S. troops arriving on the scene wrapped Invest 90L's head in an Arab robe and began beating him
Crazy Talk..
Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #9
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cycloneye
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Did NRL jumped a bit early? Because it has been a half an hour since they changed the heading from invest to NONAME and no statement has been made.I guess they are redacting it to then release.
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Aquawind
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cycloneye wrote:Did NRL jumped a bit early? Because it has been a half an hour since they changed the heading from invest to NONAME and no statement has been made.I guess they are redacting it to then release.
Well if it's the exposed swirl in the channel NRL might have jumped the gun.. Granted it has all the signs of a TD but a LLC within convection.. The Ships report sure made it sound like a done deal..
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CHRISTY
Aquawind wrote:cycloneye wrote:Did NRL jumped a bit early? Because it has been a half an hour since they changed the heading from invest to NONAME and no statement has been made.I guess they are redacting it to then release.
Well if it's the exposed swirl in the channel NRL might have jumped the gun.. Granted it has all the signs of a TD but a LLC within convection.. The Ships report sure made it sound like a done deal..
that ship report indicates we may have a TS.
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CHRISTY wrote:Aquawind wrote:cycloneye wrote:Did NRL jumped a bit early? Because it has been a half an hour since they changed the heading from invest to NONAME and no statement has been made.I guess they are redacting it to then release.
Well if it's the exposed swirl in the channel NRL might have jumped the gun.. Granted it has all the signs of a TD but a LLC within convection.. The Ships report sure made it sound like a done deal..
that ship report indicates we may have a TS.
It is extremely hard to believe a ship report, when it is reporting a SST of 68F. They want more data to support that wind. Another ship just reported 22 knot winds and about the same pressure. Data consistency is very important.
10/09 KS049 22.0 -85.8 26.3 090 35 1000.8 20.1 KS049
10/12 C6KJ5 22.3 -86.6 26.0 050 22 1000.4 0.0 22.0 C6KJ5
Last edited by drezee on Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Jacksonville AFD:
Area Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS62 KJAX 100804 CCA
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
400 AM EDT SAT JUN 10 2006
.SHORT TERM...
WELL TODAYS FORECAST IS EASY...HAZY...HOT AND HUMID. LOOKS LIKE WE
WILL BE LOOKING AT NEAR RECORD TEMPS IN SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ALMA AND/OR WAYCROSS POP THE CENTURY
MARK TODAY. THE RECORD AT ALMA FOR TODAY IS 103 (1954) AND JAX INTL
IS 100 (ALSO 1954). WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING TODAY THE FIRE
DANGER WILL REMAIN HIGH. TOMORROW WE WILL START TO SEE A A BIT OF
MOISTURE CREEP UP FROM THE SOUTH SO NOT QUITE AS HOT...ESPECIALLY TO
THE SOUTH...AND A BIT BETTER CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM.
.LONG TERM...
NEXT WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WHAT...IF ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT...
COMES OUT OF THE NW CARIBBEAN. RIGHT NOW ITS HARD TO GET A HANDLE
ON THE SYSTEM AS IT IS IN THE EARLY DEVELOPMENT STAGES. UKMET AND
NAM TAKE THE SYSTEM INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF AT VARIOUS
STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT. NOGAPS...GFDL...GFS AND ECMWF ALL HAVE A
SYSTEM GOING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF AND THEN HOOKING INTO THE
NORTHEAST GULF ON MON/TUE. THIS IS ALSO THE GUID FROM THE MID-RANGE
CONFERENCE CALL THIS AFTERNOON. SO UNTIL TPC/NHC STARTS THIS ONE UP
AM GOING TO PLAY THIS FORECAST PACKAGE BASED ON SOME TYPE OF A
SUB-TROPICAL/HYBRID SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OF THE YUCATAN AND THEN
TOWARD THE NE GULF AND FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THIS WE
SHOULD BE ON THE WET SIDE OF AN ASYMMETRICAL SYSTEM WITH THAT
CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS GRADUALLY MOVING NORTH
OVER THE AREA. SO EVEN IF THE THING FIZZLES IN THE CENTRAL GULF
HOPEFULLY IT WILL BRING A FETCH OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH IT. SO AM
GOING TO GO WITH GFS MAV POPS FOR MON AND TUES. OVERALL THIS COULD
GO A LONG WAY TOWARD LOWERING THE FIRE DANGER IF WE CAN GET A GOOD
STEADY SOAKING IN HERE FOR TWO DAYS. WILL ADMIT MAYBE I AM LETTING
MY HOPES FOR A GOOD RAIN GET IN THE WAY OF JUDGMENT BUT THIS DOES
LOOK LIKE THE BEST SHOT AS A GOOD RAIN THAT WE HAVE SEEN IN SOME
TIME.
&&
.MARINE...SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES IN THE LOCAL WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH WINDS STRONGEST AT NIGHT WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES.
FORECAST BECOMES A CHALLENGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COMPUTER MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEVIATE WITH PROJECTED TRACK OF TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM UPON ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO. WILL NOT MAY ANY WHOLESALE
CHANGES AT THIS TIME...AS FEATURE HAS YET TO ENTER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE POSITION...DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW WILL
DETERMINE WIND STRENGTH AND DIRECTION FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. LOCAL
AND MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR FORECASTS AND THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.FIRE WX...VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL YET AGAIN IMPACT THE FIRE
WEATHER REGION...AND WILL RAISE RED FLAG WARNING FOR NORTHEAST
FLORIDA. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 25 AND 30
PERCENT...EXCEPT HIGH VALUES NEAR THE COAST. CONDITIONS ARE
VERY MARGINAL FOR RED FLAG EVENT FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH
RH VALUES OF 25 PERCENT FOR DURATIONS UPWARDS OF 3 HOURS...
THUS WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING RED FLAG WARNING. TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BEGINNING
SUNDAY...THUS RED FLAGS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. WELCOME RAINS WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVES NORTHWARD IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...HOWEVER COMPUTER MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEVIATE WITH PROJECTED TRACK.
Area Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS62 KJAX 100804 CCA
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
400 AM EDT SAT JUN 10 2006
.SHORT TERM...
WELL TODAYS FORECAST IS EASY...HAZY...HOT AND HUMID. LOOKS LIKE WE
WILL BE LOOKING AT NEAR RECORD TEMPS IN SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ALMA AND/OR WAYCROSS POP THE CENTURY
MARK TODAY. THE RECORD AT ALMA FOR TODAY IS 103 (1954) AND JAX INTL
IS 100 (ALSO 1954). WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING TODAY THE FIRE
DANGER WILL REMAIN HIGH. TOMORROW WE WILL START TO SEE A A BIT OF
MOISTURE CREEP UP FROM THE SOUTH SO NOT QUITE AS HOT...ESPECIALLY TO
THE SOUTH...AND A BIT BETTER CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM.
.LONG TERM...
NEXT WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY WHAT...IF ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT...
COMES OUT OF THE NW CARIBBEAN. RIGHT NOW ITS HARD TO GET A HANDLE
ON THE SYSTEM AS IT IS IN THE EARLY DEVELOPMENT STAGES. UKMET AND
NAM TAKE THE SYSTEM INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF AT VARIOUS
STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT. NOGAPS...GFDL...GFS AND ECMWF ALL HAVE A
SYSTEM GOING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF AND THEN HOOKING INTO THE
NORTHEAST GULF ON MON/TUE. THIS IS ALSO THE GUID FROM THE MID-RANGE
CONFERENCE CALL THIS AFTERNOON. SO UNTIL TPC/NHC STARTS THIS ONE UP
AM GOING TO PLAY THIS FORECAST PACKAGE BASED ON SOME TYPE OF A
SUB-TROPICAL/HYBRID SYSTEM MOVING NORTH OF THE YUCATAN AND THEN
TOWARD THE NE GULF AND FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THIS WE
SHOULD BE ON THE WET SIDE OF AN ASYMMETRICAL SYSTEM WITH THAT
CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS GRADUALLY MOVING NORTH
OVER THE AREA. SO EVEN IF THE THING FIZZLES IN THE CENTRAL GULF
HOPEFULLY IT WILL BRING A FETCH OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH IT. SO AM
GOING TO GO WITH GFS MAV POPS FOR MON AND TUES. OVERALL THIS COULD
GO A LONG WAY TOWARD LOWERING THE FIRE DANGER IF WE CAN GET A GOOD
STEADY SOAKING IN HERE FOR TWO DAYS. WILL ADMIT MAYBE I AM LETTING
MY HOPES FOR A GOOD RAIN GET IN THE WAY OF JUDGMENT BUT THIS DOES
LOOK LIKE THE BEST SHOT AS A GOOD RAIN THAT WE HAVE SEEN IN SOME
TIME.
&&
.MARINE...SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES IN THE LOCAL WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH WINDS STRONGEST AT NIGHT WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES.
FORECAST BECOMES A CHALLENGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COMPUTER MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEVIATE WITH PROJECTED TRACK OF TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM UPON ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO. WILL NOT MAY ANY WHOLESALE
CHANGES AT THIS TIME...AS FEATURE HAS YET TO ENTER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE POSITION...DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF THIS LOW WILL
DETERMINE WIND STRENGTH AND DIRECTION FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. LOCAL
AND MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR FORECASTS AND THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.FIRE WX...VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL YET AGAIN IMPACT THE FIRE
WEATHER REGION...AND WILL RAISE RED FLAG WARNING FOR NORTHEAST
FLORIDA. RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 25 AND 30
PERCENT...EXCEPT HIGH VALUES NEAR THE COAST. CONDITIONS ARE
VERY MARGINAL FOR RED FLAG EVENT FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH
RH VALUES OF 25 PERCENT FOR DURATIONS UPWARDS OF 3 HOURS...
THUS WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING RED FLAG WARNING. TROPICAL MOISTURE
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BEGINNING
SUNDAY...THUS RED FLAGS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. WELCOME RAINS WILL
LIKELY ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA
MOVES NORTHWARD IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...HOWEVER COMPUTER MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEVIATE WITH PROJECTED TRACK.
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wxman57
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Ok, got a visible GARP image with sfc obs plotted. LLC looks to be midway between the western tip of Cuba and the NE tip of Yucatan near 21.3N/86W:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/alberto7.gif
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/alberto7.gif
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wxman57
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- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Scorpion wrote:Thats a pretty low pressure the ship is reporting.
Ships are notorious for not often calibrating their barometers. I don't tend to trust their reports too much. You never know how the instruments have been maitained or whether the person taking the observation did it properly. Also, ship lats/lons are often coded incorrectly, placing the ship hundreds or thousands of miles from where it actually is.
Last edited by wxman57 on Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Stratusxpeye
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Evil Jeremy
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wxman57
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Looks like it's a TD now according to NHC.
WTNT21 KNHC 101247
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
1300Z SAT JUN 10 2006
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE RECOMMENDED FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 85.3W AT 10/1300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 85.3W AT 10/1300Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 85.0W
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 22.0N 85.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 23.9N 86.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 25.6N 86.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 25NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 27.2N 86.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 29.5N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 30SW 30NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 34.0N 77.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 42.0N 67.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 85.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTNT21 KNHC 101247
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
1300Z SAT JUN 10 2006
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE RECOMMENDED FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 85.3W AT 10/1300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 85.3W AT 10/1300Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 85.0W
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 22.0N 85.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 23.9N 86.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 25.6N 86.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 25SW 25NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 27.2N 86.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 29.5N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 30SW 30NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 34.0N 77.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 42.0N 67.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.1N 85.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z
FORECASTER BEVEN
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cycloneye
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Aquawind wrote:Ya gotta have convection over the center though.. It's is a naked sheared swirl ATM..
Lopsided in other words.
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