Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #9

wzrgirl1 · #81 Postby **wzrgirl1** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:08 am

rjgator wrote:http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/00Pinar%20del%20Rio/lbjMAXw01a.gif

Looks like you can see the circulation on the cuban radar

you can see it from that thanks for sharing

Thunder44 · #82 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:09 am

rjgator wrote:http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/00Pinar%20del%20Rio/lbjMAXw01a.gif

Looks like you can see the circulation on the cuban radar

It looks like there maybe another center forming just south of the western tip of Cuba.

#83 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:09 am

This thread will remain open until the official word comes about the formation of TD#1.

#84 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:10 am

doesn't work for me

#85 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:10 am

Radar doesn't work for me..

#86 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:11 am

rjgator wrote:http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/00Pinar%20del%20Rio/lbjMAXw01a.gif

Looks like you can see the circulation on the cuban radar

Problem with using radar is line of sight. Until a system is "stacked," what you see is not necessarily at the sfc. If the circulation on radar is 100 miles from radar...then you are looking at 8000 feet or so up...which is mid-levels.

#87 Postby **wjs3** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:11 am

AFM

The little swirl in the Yucatan channel? I agree--that's not going to be the primary LLC as this all shakes out. No way, no convection, no CISK going on at that center.

WJS3

Clint_TX · #88 Postby **Clint_TX** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:12 am

It's dead Jim - we hardly even knew ya

#89 Postby **rjgator** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:12 am

http://www.met.inf.cu/

Try this one and go to the Radares and then to LA Bajada

#90 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:13 am

CHRISTY wrote:
so ur saying the one under the convection will end up taking over...if there is one there?

Maybe. Matter of fact, GHCC is in the rapid scan mode so you get images every 5-7 minutes....and you can see the LLC in the channel now moving south.

What might happen is it moves south in the overall circulation...then back to the SE...then E....into the convection...and then establishes itself as the dominate center.

Clint_TX · #91 Postby **Clint_TX** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:14 am

It spit the bit

#92 Postby **rjgator** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:15 am

AFM it still looks neat and it put the center pretty close to the TWD position Right?

Tampa_God · #93 Postby **Tampa_God** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:15 am

looks like the convection has blown up in the past 5 hours. If it isn't a TD now, then that is amazing. Many moduls are changing their West turn and now are aiming it towards Florida.

#94 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:16 am

wjs3 wrote:AFM

The little swirl in the Yucatan channel? I agree--that's not going to be the primary LLC as this all shakes out. No way, no convection, no CISK going on at that center.

WJS3

Yep...that's it. I think it may eventually wrap back up into the broader circulation. However, the circulation on the west side is very loose...and it has just as good of a chance as being spit out to the south. If it was more closed down on that side I would say it is certain to be wrapped back up...but it is not well defined on the west side.

jabber · #95 Postby **jabber** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:18 am

000
FXUS62 KMFL 100723
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
323 AM EDT SAT JUN 10 2006

.DISCUSSION...THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BEGIN TO MORE NOTICEABLY
RAMP UP FORECAST ELEMENTS TOWARD A WET AND WINDY SCENARIO
BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS OF DEVELOPING
LOW OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN STILL SHOWING QUITE A SPREAD. GFS
DOES LOOK REASONABLE AND INITIALIZED WELL THIS PAST RUN.
NEVERTHELESS...TRACK AND STRENGTH OF DEVELOPING SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS WILL BE OF GREAT CONCERN FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. CURRENT
INDICATIONS FROM MODELS...HPC...ARE FOR TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM
SUNDAY TO TUESDAY BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES OVERALL BASIN AVERAGES
WITH SOME HIGHER LOCALIZED AMOUNTS. GIVEN THESE NUMBERS AND THE
HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE OF THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM...HAVE
OPTED NOT TO POST A FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK AT THIS HOUR. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE LIKELY RANGE...HOWEVER...FOR ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HAVE ALSO VEERED AND
INCREASED WINDS FROM SUNDAY ON...WITH MAX VALUES MAINLY 20 KNOTS
OR LESS AND SEAS TO 6 FEET FOR NOW. ALL EYES WILL BE FOCUSED ON
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN GULF NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

#96 Postby **Air Force Met** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:19 am

rjgator wrote:AFM it still looks neat and it put the center pretty close to the TWD position Right?

Yeah...that's a mid and lower level center...but not at the sfc yet. However, looking at thigns I don't think it will take much more than a couple of hours for that to happen.

CHRISTY · #97 Postby **CHRISTY** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:21 am

Air Force Met wrote:
rjgator wrote:AFM it still looks neat and it put the center pretty close to the TWD position Right?

Yeah...that's a mid and lower level center...but not at the sfc yet. However, looking at thigns I don't think it will take much more than a couple of hours for that to happen.

so then the LLC is under that ball of convection.....or will it eventually be?

#98 Postby **TampaFl** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:21 am

Great comment from NWS Tampa about possible future track.

FXUS62 KTBW 101022
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
630 AM EDT SAT JUN 10 2006

UPDATE...IR SAT AND MODELS SOUNDINGS SHOWING TROPICAL MOISTURE
RETURNING IN ERNEST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA EARLY
THIS MORNING. RADAR SHOWING ISOLATED SHRA OVER MY SOUTHERN COASTAL
AREAS AND ADJACENT OFFSHORE WATERS. HAVE ALREADY UPDATED GRIDS AND
FORECASTS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND POPS FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA
SOUTHWARD TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LATEST MOS GUIDANCE CONCURS AS
WELL.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...ALL EYES FOCUSED ON FUTURE
DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT OF POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER WESTERN
CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS GENERALLY BRING THE
SYSTEM NORTH INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY AND THEN TURN IT
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EXACT
LOCATION AND STRENGTH CONTINUES TO VARY...BUT DOES LOOK LIKE A
WETTER PATTERN FOR THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM (MON NGT-FRI)...WHEN DEALING WITH WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT
HAVE NOT YET BECOME VERY WELL ORGANIZED...IT IS BEST NOT TO CHASE
MODEL RUNS SEVERAL TIMES A DAY. MODELS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO HAVE
A WIDE SPREAD OF SOLUTIONS UNTIL WE SEE EITHER BETTER
ORGANIZATION...OR AT THE VERY LEAST SOME TRACKABLE MOTION.

I DID TWEAK THE WINDS IN THE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY TIME FRAME TO GET
CLOSE TO THE GFS/GFDL TIMING. OTHERWISE I HAVE LEFT CLOUDS AND
WEATHER AS THEY WERE BUT MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPERATURES TO BE
NEAR 00Z MEX GUIDANCE.

LOOKING BEYOND THE CONFUSION...SOME DRYING WILL TAKE PLACE BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY...WITH POPS RETURNING TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS ON THURSDAY. I DID BUMP POPS UP TO 30 PERCENT ON
FRIDAY SINCE BOTH MEX GUIDANCE AND CLIMATOLOGY SUPPORT A BIT MORE
THAN JUST ISOLATED COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY...BUT HAVE
KEPT WIND SPEEDS IN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY UNTIL THE FUTURE OF POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM
BECOMES BETTER KNOWN.

Clint_TX · #99 Postby **Clint_TX** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:21 am

U.S. troops arriving on the scene wrapped Invest 90L's head in an Arab robe and began beating him

Stratusxpeye · #100 Postby **Stratusxpeye** » Sat Jun 10, 2006 7:22 am

looks like TD #1 May be official now or very very very soon

Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #9

Interesting from MIA NWS

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