Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #8

[BUD]

The trough axis is now off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic, and is more than 10 degrees latitude away from 90L...plus the ridge over Arkansas is sliding east and connecting up with the Bermuda high...If this storm doesn't move quickly, the Florida door is going to slam shut and this system will be a problem for the central Gulf Coast.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

Yep,(If)it comes a hurricane then we are going to see $7-$10 gas prices also.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Thanks, boca_chris, for your comments...except for the ummmmm...

Could you provide links to models showing a trough digging down...Thanks!

Why are all the models forecasting a NE turn then?

models constantly change. I remember in Rita having them go from Mexico all the way to Louisiana. Usually these early scenarios are not the final result.

[rockyman]

Boca_chris...I believe I just asked for the models...I never said I was doubting your assertion...which models are showing the trough digging down?

[gatorcane]

Thanks, boca_chris, for your comments...except for the ummmmm...

Could you provide links to models showing a trough digging down...Thanks!

Why are all the models forecasting a NE turn then?

models constantly change. I remember in Rita having them go from Mexico all the way to Louisiana. Usually these early scenarios are not the final result.

If you look at this water vapor loop, you can see that the Low in Canada is causing a deep NW flow down the East Coast which will open the door for a trough to come through - the trough is not visible yet but should be on its way in about 3-4 days.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

[rockyman]

what models show the trough coming down in 3-4 days?

[gatorcane]

How about the GFS? It shows a turn into the big bend of Florida:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=096hr

Of course it is a weak low and nothing more

[Scorpion]

When will the 00z suite come in?

[skysummit]

Boca....we know the models show a NE turn, they usually always do this early in the timeframe. I believe what rocky is asking is to show him the actual trough that is making these models produce that sharp turn.

[gatorcane]

Hey rockyman you could be right - I hope so, I would rather watch on the sidelines.....we'll have to see what happens but I have yet to see this blob work its way NW - seems like it wants to drift N....

[Evil Jeremy]

as in the GOM one which is currently forcing the storm into florita? the UKMET

[skysummit]

When will the 00z suite come in?

00z GFS is in. It's still showing a Florida landfall north of Tampa.

[Vortex]

I agree with Jeremy. The fact is that this system has continued to organize slowly this afternoon/evening and looks as healthy as it ever has at this point. It really bears close watching for those people especially in florida as flooding and isolated tornadoes could become a concern. I think Alberto(2 be) will provide copious amounts of rainfall to western Cuba(10-15") and possibly much of the Florida Peninsula especially the west coast and Keys(6-10"). Isolated tornadoes and water spouts will also be common...Stay Tuned as Saturday could be very interesting in the tropics...

[Scorpion]

Anyone know about the 00z GFDL?

[rockyman]

Thanks, boca_chris, for tolerating a grizzled hurricane veteran

I'm just trying to encourage everyone to support their conclusions with data...we'll all learn and be better off when each of us takes the time to show and tell WHY we believe something is going to happen...

[rockyman]

Latest GFDL (pinkish purple line):

[mtm4319]

Anyone know about the 00z GFDL?

The GFDL run at 2335 UTC shows pretty much the same as the GFS. I'm not sure if that's the 00Z GFDL though.

[ericinmia]

Joe B. Posted a late night blurb stating that this storm will hit Florida Mon/Tue and that it will be picked up by another deep trof.
for whatever its worth...

00z NOGAPS at 108hr: (Huge Storm off NC coast)


Here is the new FSUMM5 that is rolling in right now, this is under the 54km Grid: (further west)


Waiting for the higher detail 18km and 6km grids..

[spinfan4eva]

Question:

Why is NWS Miami only showing 50% pops for early next week here??? Ummmm i would change that to like 90-100%....look at that mess heading towards South Florida...should start seeing some burst of energy spin off starting late tomorrow and things will just get worse Sun and into Mon. - just my opinion looking at the sat presentations

Hey dont feel bad, we have even less at 30-40% here in Jax and we are near the forecast track! Im expecting this to change to a flood watch over the weekend into early next week. Some offices are conservative and just wanna make sure.

[Evil Jeremy]

right now, its hard to tell where its going to hit, if it does. at its current track, it would completly miss Florida! and it doesnt look like and change in direction is going to happen soon, so i am adding in another slight possibility. it decides to slowly turn ENE or NE and skim the SE coast of FL. I DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO HAPPEN, but it is always a possibility.

[vaffie]

The models seem to have a good consensus, but there are some (probably related to the UKMET) which have an interesting western divergence.