TWO/TWD updates 90L

[Ixolib]

Yep, tis the season!!! How many more times this summer will we see this phrase??

... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA.

[Stratusxpeye]

TD Should be sometime tommorrow. Almost a gaurentee at this point. Possibly alberto by sundown or sunup on sunday.

[cycloneye]

TD Should be sometime tommorrow. Almost a gaurentee at this point. Possibly alberto by sundown or sunup on sunday.

Unless something surprising occurs this is liftoff.

[CrazyC83]

The only thing that is stopping Alberto now is dissipation within 6 hours. Can they issue watches or warnings for a system that has not yet developed?

The chance of development is 90% in my opinion.

[tailgater]

The Quik scat will be coming out shortly, If they see a closed low w/decent winds they could go ahead and classify it a T.D. on the 11:30 TWO.

could you post the quick scat information here as soon as you get it?

<RICKY>

Here it is, I don't know if it's posted already. I'm not going through all those post.
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/SCA ... 10_-90.gif
Right about where TWD said it was.

[gatorcane]

The only thing that is stopping Alberto now is dissipation within 6 hours. Can they issue watches or warnings for a system that has not yet developed?

The chance of development is 90% in my opinion.

wouldn't be surprise if parts of the west coast of Florida have watches up by the end of the weekend (TS or even hurricane).

[clfenwi]

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
1005 MB LOW IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N85W DRIFTING
NORTHWARD. THERE IS NO WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER AS OF
YET BUT THE SYSTEM STILL SHOWS SIGNS OF BANDING FEATURES AND
LARGE (3-4 MB) 24 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS. THE SYSTEM IS CLOSE TO
BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND ALL SIGNS GENERALLY POINT TO
IT DEVELOPING LATER TODAY. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE ROUGHLY
TAKE THE SYSTEM IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TOWARD THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY ABOUT THIS TIME
TOMORROW. AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE W OF THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN
GRADUALLY MOVING WESTWARD WITH AN EXPANSION OF AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 18N83W. FOR NOW.. THE PRIMARY THREAT
IS CONTINUED HEAVY RAINS OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CENTRAL
CUBA WESTWARD AS SOME OF THOSE AREAS HAVE RECEIVED OVER 8 INCHES
OF RAIN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN
JAMAICA AND 85W.

0205 AM TWD

[HURAKAN]

5:31 AM and still no TWO. Weird!

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SAT JUN 10 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF CABO SAN ANTONIO AT THE WESTERN
END OF CUBA IS MOVING NORTHWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION DURING THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A
TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY
BRINGING SQUALLS AND ADDITIONAL RAINS TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND
PORTIONS OF CUBA. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
BECAUSE DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR NEAR CUBA AT ANY TIME TODAY...A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN CUBA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
1003 MB LOW IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AT 0900 UTC NEAR 20.5N85W
MOVING NW 5 KT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE LOW HAS
PASSED BUOY 42056 AS IT REPORTED LIGHT SW WINDS AT 0700 UTC AND
A RATHER LOW PRESSURE. NIGHT VIS IMAGES ARE SUGGESTING THAT A
LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS EITHER MOVED NORTHWARD OR HAS REFORMED TO
THE W OF A LARGE BURST OF CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME. COMPUTER
MODELS GENERALLY MOVE THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTERLY THRU THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE TONIGHT. AN
UPPER TROUGH TO THE W OF THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY MOVING
WESTWARD WITH A LITTLE EXPANSION OF A UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
NEAR 18N83W. HOWEVER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THE UPPER TROUGH IS STILL IMPARTING SW WINDS OVER
THE CIRCULATION CENTER. FOR NOW.. THE PRIMARY THREAT IS
CONTINUED HEAVY RAINS OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CENTRAL CUBA
WESTWARD AS SOME OF THOSE AREAS HAVE RECEIVED OVER 8 INCHES OF
RAIN. SCATTERED BANDS OF TSTMS ARE MOSTLY TO THE E OF THE
SYSTEM WITH STRONG CONVECTION NOW FROM 18N-CUBA BETWEEN 80W-85W
AND MORE MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 81W-84W WITH A
FEW TSTMS REMAINING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.



8 AM Special Feature discussion

[Thunder44]

I think we will see advisories initated this morning after first visible images come out. There seems to be enough already to called this TD or TS. Look out for a STDS soon.

[Air Force Met]

I think we will see advisories this morning as after first visible images come out. There seems to be enough already to called this TD or TS. Look out for a STDS soon.

I agree...with some good vis images and the buoy data...no need to wait for recon to declare a TD....especially with that great burst of convection going right now during the diurnal min.

[linkerweather]

I would be surprised if a STDS was issued. It does however look to me like it should already be a TD but it seems likely that the NHC will fully digest the 12z data before using simply the first vis images of the day. Should everything continue as it has been going, I believe we will see TD #1 by 11 am. What troubles me a bit, is how the center has reformed in an area where the convection fired quite a bit. As of now (after very little analysis) it seems as though the outflow looks quite impressive on the N,E, and S portions of this system. I have several family obligations today and will try to post later this afternoon.

[caneman]

Josh, you do a great job here in the Bay area. appreciate your insights. Really looks to be blowing up this morning. Lets see if it wraps itself

[canegrl04]

So this baby is going through the goal posts (Yucatan Channel) . Alberto here we come.Lets just hope he stays a TS

[Air Force Met]

I would be surprised if a STDS was issued. It does however look to me like it should already be a TD but it seems likely that the NHC will fully digest the 12z data before using simply the first vis images of the day. Should everything continue as it has been going, I believe we will see TD #1 by 11 am. What troubles me a bit, is how the center has reformed in an area where the convection fired quite a bit. As of now (after very little analysis) it seems as though the outflow looks quite impressive on the N,E, and S portions of this system. I have several family obligations today and will try to post later this afternoon.

That's what I think....issue at 11...after some vis imagery. No need to wait for recon. That gives a good 2 hours of vis loops. It's a TD no doubt...especially given the latest burst of convection. It already looks better than Grace.

[rockyman]

01L NONAME on NRL

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... YLE=tables

[HURAKAN]

It already looks better than Grace.

Even the burst of convection in the Central Plains look better than Grace!!!

[CHRISTY]

I would be surprised if a STDS was issued. It does however look to me like it should already be a TD but it seems likely that the NHC will fully digest the 12z data before using simply the first vis images of the day. Should everything continue as it has been going, I believe we will see TD #1 by 11 am. What troubles me a bit, is how the center has reformed in an area where the convection fired quite a bit. As of now (after very little analysis) it seems as though the outflow looks quite impressive on the N,E, and S portions of this system. I have several family obligations today and will try to post later this afternoon.

That's what I think....issue at 11...after some vis imagery. No need to wait for recon. That gives a good 2 hours of vis loops. It's a TD no doubt...especially given the latest burst of convection. It already looks better than Grace.[/quote


air force met how soon do u think it will begin to feel the affects of the trough if it ever does....

[caneman]

Christy. All models say it will be picked up and this is June after all. All gonna be a matter of timing. Anywhere from Appalcahacola to Sarasota should watch this