Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #8

[Air Force Met]

A lot of people spend a lot of time typing well-thought out responses which are buried within a few seconds under a barrage of pointless posts...

Ain't that the truth. Well said. We need to keep the chit-chat off of these types of threads.

Edit: Above Post...case in point.

Edit again...above post was deleted.

So...never mind.

[MiamiensisWx]

Commending rockyman's post, I also think we should slow down and think before typing; therefore, we won't have to feel the rush to post well-thought posts quickly before they get buried. Patience, everyone!

[TexasSam]

chat is opne with 22 people...
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=85447

[Phoenix78]

OK - Ive resisted long enough! I checked out this system about 6:00 this morning - I didn't look at another image all day (I swear!). I just checked the latest sat shot. Looks like a TS in the early stages - and nothing around to stop it!

I'm truly hoping for a Florida landfall of a respectable tropical storm - the whole state REALLY needs the rain!!!

...Alan

[Tampa_God]

So what are the predictions right now?

My prediction is TD tomorrow moving NNW. TS Late Sun/Early Mon moving N. Hurricane Tues moving NE and then a ENE movement towards Florida. Hitting somewhere north of Tampa.

[CHRISTY]

i actually think it will turn sooner rather then later...i think the trough will not miss it.

[MiamiensisWx]

In my opinion, I think the best first chance for slow development is within the next 24 hours as the southwesterly flow enhances the outflow and as the center slowly begins to consolidate closer to the main convectove mass. Water vapor imagery indicates the process in the start...

Water vapor loop

Convection has likely eroded near the center due to some shear impringing on the interior of the developing system. Dry air intrusion at the lower levels and uppermost levels may be contributing to this, too. As the center slowly begins to consolidate and organize over the next 24 hours, however, we may see an initial dying off of some of the convection, followed by a new burst and organization of the convection around the center. Poleward outflow should also be enhanced by the southwesterly flow, starting around now.

At or just after 24 hours, the biggest shear impacts may impact the system; however, as the trough continues to pull away, I think the shear will slowly begin to taper off a bit after that, allowing for continued development. Numerous systems in the past have shown good examples of this whole process. Because of the synoptics, I think we will see our first tropical depression of the season soon.

[hsvwx]

New to the forum, discovered you guys last year during Rita and have been keeping my eyes open ever since. I have a meteorology degree and am currently going for my master's, and I always enjoy talking weather with other people, so on that note, I'd like to take a second just to mention something about the NAM. Obviously, the NAM has 90L missing the shortwave moving towards the East Coast, which can truly happen depending how long this system stays in the NW caribbean. While it looks like Florida is the main threat, the NAM-WRF and the original NAM are both further west. 00z NAM out to 54 hrs has it further west than the 18z did at this point. Obviously this is the first tropical season for the NAM-WRF, so as has been mentioned already, we have to see what type of biases and errors this model has with tropical systems. However, it has been consistent for a couple of days now with bringing 90L into the western Gulf. If it gets trapped under that high, all bets are off. Anyway, I look forward to some interesting posts during this upcoming tropical season.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is the 0Z NAM-WRF in 36 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara ... p_036l.gif

[GalvestonDuck]

New to the forum, discovered you guys last year during Rita and have been keeping my eyes open ever since. I have a meteorology degree and am currently going for my master's, and I always enjoy talking weather with other people, so on that note, I'd like to take a second just to mention something about the NAM. Obviously, the NAM has 90L missing the shortwave moving towards the East Coast, which can truly happen depending how long this system stays in the NW caribbean. While it looks like Florida is the main threat, the NAM-WRF and the original NAM are both further west. 00z NAM out to 54 hrs has it further west than the 18z did at this point. Obviously this is the first tropical season for the NAM-WRF, so as has been mentioned already, we have to see what type of biases and errors this model has with tropical systems. However, it has been consistent for a couple of days now with bringing 90L into the western Gulf. If it gets trapped under that high, all bets are off. Anyway, I look forward to some interesting posts during this upcoming tropical season.

Let me spare everyone else all the one-liners that could fill up this thread with well-meaning posts, welcoming you here. So, on behalf of all the members -- WELCOME! There's probably going to be a "Welcome to Storm2k, hsvwx!" thread over in the Greetings forum for you to be genuinely welcomed by all the rest.

Well thought out post, by the way. Looking forward to more from you.

[HalloweenGale]

What I don't like, is the fact that the GDFL has it by the Cape and Islands in 4 days. I don't like it.

[floridahurricaneguy]

Very interesting situation thats for sure... i think the tampa metro area could be affected by heavy rains and winds depending on the size of it. I am predicting just north of Tampa like 60 miles or so. I am about 30 miles north of tampa... will be watching this closely. looks as if Tampa is definitely in the "cone of possibilties"

[rockyman]

Jim Cantore just commented that the MLC may be "trying to take over"...first time I've heard him say that...convection is starting to warm again near the old center.

[gatorcane]

it won't be until tomorrow after the recon flight before we have a better fix. Fortunately the blob is slowly moving NE (the center is drifting N but still fighting the mid-layer center farther east to gain control) and shouldn't move much in the next 24 hours.....

wouldn't be surpised to see that center relocate again more E...under the mid-layer circulation....

Whatever happens peninsula Florida should get a good deluge since it will be on the E side (or have a direct hit)

[Tampa_God]

Very interesting situation thats for sure... i think the tampa metro area could be affected by heavy rains and winds depending on the size of it. I am predicting just north of Tampa like 60 miles or so. I am about 30 miles north of tampa... will be watching this closely. looks as if Tampa is definitely in the "cone of possibilties"

I have it near Hernado/Pasco line for me, so close. Where do youlive? I live near New Port Richey

[TampaFl]

Obs Loop from the NW Carribbean.



http://www.oceanweather.com/data/Caribbean-Sea/marineloop.html



Robert

[gatorcane]

Question:

Why is NWS Miami only showing 50% pops for early next week here??? Ummmm i would change that to like 90-100%....look at that mess heading towards South Florida...should start seeing some burst of energy spin off starting late tomorrow and things will just get worse Sun and into Mon. - just my opinion looking at the sat presentations

[floridahurricaneguy]

Very interesting situation thats for sure... i think the tampa metro area could be affected by heavy rains and winds depending on the size of it. I am predicting just north of Tampa like 60 miles or so. I am about 30 miles north of tampa... will be watching this closely. looks as if Tampa is definitely in the "cone of possibilties"

I have it near Hernado/Pasco line for me, so close. Where do youlive? I live near New Port Richey

live in new port richey. The news channels here said its not a threat to our area. What B.S.! a little premature dont you think

[rockyman]

18Z "consensus" model (using CMC, GFDL, GFS, NOGAPS, and UKMET):



Third consecutive consensus run showing similar solution.

[TampaFl]

Question:

Why is NWS Miami only showing 50% pops for early next week here??? Ummmm i would change that to like 90-100%....look at that mess heading towards South Florida...should start seeing it Sat night/Sun timeframe.

May be just playing it close to the vest for now before pulling the trigger on all out rain event??
Here in Tampa they are calling for 60% Sunday night through Tuesday. I am sure that will increase with time.

Robert