TWO/TWD updates 90L

[HurricaneHunter914]

It looked better than Arlene when it was a TS.

[tailgater]

The Quik scat will be coming out shortly, If they see a closed low w/decent winds they could go ahead and classify it a T.D. on the 11:30 TWO.

[WeatherEmperor]

The Quik scat will be coming out shortly, If they see a closed low w/decent winds they could go ahead and classify it a T.D. on the 11:30 TWO.

could you post the quick scat information here as soon as you get it?

<RICKY>

[CHRISTY]

i think the NHC is very close at calling this a TD.

[wzrgirl1]

I do believe by the morning it will be classified. Can it go directly to a tropical storm or does it first have to be classified as a TD?

[dhweather]

The NHC has directly classified systems as a tropical storm in the past.

[whereverwx]

It's very impressive.

Btw, does anyone want an Invest 90L avatar?

[JamesFromMaine2]

The Quik scat will be coming out shortly, If they see a closed low w/decent winds they could go ahead and classify it a T.D. on the 11:30 TWO.

The could start issueing advisories on it at 11. they wouldn't have to wait until the 11:30 TWO

[lester]

It's very impressive.

Btw, does anyone want an Invest 90L avatar?

thanks!

[Scorpion]

I wonder if Invest 90L knows that so many people are cheering it on

[whereverwx]

It's very impressive.

Btw, does anyone want an Invest 90L avatar?

thanks!

No problem! Also, I just realized that I posted this in the wrong topic.

[Incident_MET]

Unless they get a ship report or significant increase in sat presentation they will likely wait until recon tomorrow. Recon always helps to establish initial position and given that position is up for debate right now I wouldn't be surprised if they wait til Saturday.

My opinion only

[coriolis]

Tee shirt to follow?

[HurricaneHunter914]

Now lets not go too far.

[cycloneye]

Since aparently NHC will not classify 90L as a TD at 11 PM the 10:30 PM Tropical Weather Outlook becomes important.Stay tuned here as it will be posted as soon it comes out of the NHC office.

[canegrl04]

This thing looks like it wants to become a force to be reckoned with,but I doubt anymore than a cat 1 cane

[HURAKAN]

Finally we could have something to track in 6 months and 4 days!!!

[Recurve]

For anyone who didn't see it, today's key west discussion

FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
310 PM EDT FRI JUN 9 2006

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
A WEAK TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
FLORIDA. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT IS EXTENDING FROM WESTERN CUBA INTO THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN...WHERE STRONGER CONVECTION HAS BEEN FLARING EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. KBYX IS SHOWING ONLY ISOLATED ECHOES OUT IN THE
STRAITS AND A FEW STRONGER CELLS PULLING TOWARDS KEY WEST. THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE MAINLAND HAS HAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. CLOUDY SKIES
HAVE STAYED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLAND...BUT ARE STEADILY
ENCROACHING. WINDS HAVE TURNED TO THE SOUTHEAST MOST LOCATIONS AND
ARE BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT THE CMANS...VEERED SLIGHTLY MORE OVER
THE GULF WATERS. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN CLOSE TO 90 ALL LOCATIONS
ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST...
ALL SHORT RANGE MODELS PULL THE DEEP MOISTURE THAT IS CURRENTLY
ORIENTED NE/SW OFF TO OUR EAST ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND INTO THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. BUT LIFT IS
LACKING EVEN WITH A DEEPER SOUTHEAST WIND FIELD...AS REFLECTED IN
THE NAM AND GFS SHORT RANGE POP NUMBERS. BELIEVE WE STAND A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...AND WILL KEEP OUR HIGHER CHANCE THAT
WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS
FLORIDA FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT THERE IS
NOW BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG MOST MODELS THAT PRESSURES SHOULD FALL
MORE...NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THAT TIME.
TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN...BUT THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT AT
LEAST A WEAK CIRCULATION WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE GULF LATER THIS WEEKEND...AND THEN
APPROACHING NORTHERN FLORIDA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE DECIDED TO
RAISE POPS BY 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS WE STAY ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF WHATEVER
TRANSPIRES IN THE GULF. GFS BRINGS WINDS UP BY A GOOD 10 KNOTS OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SERVICE AREA FROM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY...AND VEERED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. HAVE UPPED
OUR WINDS DURING THOSE TIMES AND TURNED WINDS MORE TOWARDS THE
SOUTH...BUT NOT AS AGRESSIVELY AS THE GFS. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE EXTENDED
TIMES OF THE FORECAST...BUT DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN ALIGNED
NEARBY. WILL LEAVE POPS JUST ABOVE CLIMO FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. ONLY MINOR TEMPERATURE CHANGES WERE INCORPORATED IN
THE LATEST GRIDS...DUE MOSTLY TO MORE PESSIMISTIC SKY COVERAGE THIS
WEEKEND.&&

.MARINE...
AGAIN...BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF LOWER PRESSURE THROUGH
THE GULF LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...NO
ADVISORY HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR ANY FORECAST PERIOD...BUT HAD TO
UP THE WINDS AND VEER THEM MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. WILL ALSO EMPHASIZE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND
GUSTS AND SEAS WEST OF MARQUESAS KEYS DURING THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE KEY WEST TO MIAMI FLIGHT ROUTE
AND AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MAINLAND PORTION OF THE ROUTE WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING. ALSO ISOLATED MVFR SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE ROUTE. SURFACE WINDS IN UNDISTURBED ENVIRONMENTS
WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY TEMPS AND POPS...
KEY WEST 78 88 80 88 / 50 40 40 40
MARATHON 79 90 80 90 / 50 40 40 40

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

[cycloneye]

212
ABNT20 KNHC 100209
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1030 PM EDT FRI JUN 09 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN HONDURAS AND WESTERN
CUBA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS
EXTREME WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BRINGING SQUALLS AND
ADDITIONAL RAINS TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF CUBA. AN AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
BECAUSE DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR NEAR CUBA AT ANY TIME ON
SATURDAY...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA


Almost a done deal towards TD.

[canegrl04]

Wow! So we could have Alberto in the next 12-24 hours