Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #8

[jabber]

Its not one right now ... as per NHC we will see

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

Tell me that is not a TD! That looks like a TD.

[rockyman]

the "hook" on the satellite near the MLC is what's prompted the T-number...

[HurricaneHunter914]

Wher is the trough right now?

[Bgator]

Wher is the trough right now?

The trough is lifting out, it is disconnecting from the system itself...

[saints63213]

on the water Vapor loop its not as impressive as some make it out to be I think we are still a good 12 hours away from TD status.

[Ivanhater]

By the way rocky, who is larry?

[HurricaneHunter914]

Wher is the trough right now?

The trough is lifting out, it is disconnecting from the system itself...

But where is it?!

[Extremeweatherguy]

I still think the western low will be the main player. New T-storm development around it just does not spell weakening anytime soon.

[rockyman]

The satellite looks most like 1.5



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dvorak_technique

[Opal storm]

I still think the western low will be the main player. New T-storm development around it just does not spell weakening anytime soon.

Well if that's the case won't the threat shift further west?

[Jim Cantore]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Just my take, My confidence on it is a little higher then last night

leave P'cola out of this

I hope it turns out that way

[rockyman]

By the way rocky, who is larry?

He's a pro Met--private:

http://hometown.aol.com/wxamerica/prof.index.html

[Ivanhater]

By the way rocky, who is larry?

He's a pro Met--private:

http://hometown.aol.com/wxamerica/prof.index.html

great find, thanks

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/ima ... 060918.gif

NRLMRY has issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert. Not that I'm really beleiving them.

[Ivanhater]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Just my take, My confidence on it is a little higher then last night

leave P'cola out of this

I hope it turns out that way

what?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is the 18Z surface analysis:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_18Z.gif

and here is the part of the NHC discussion talking about the system:

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS ASSOCIATED WITH A
1005 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 18N85.5W. THIS SYSTEM IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE AREA AROUND 3 MB. CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BECOME MORE CONDUCTIVE TO TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME. MOST OF THE
COMPUTER MODELS AGREE IN DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM. IT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...BRINGING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS
PRIMARILY TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF CUBA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN BETWEEN 4 AND 8 INCHES HAS
BEEN REPORTED IN CENTRAL CUBA.

^^this is not at 18N, 83.5W as I saw earlier, this is at 85.5W (so west of the earlier position)^^

[HurricaneHunter914]

Floyd are you okay?

[Jim Cantore]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Just my take, My confidence on it is a little higher then last night

leave P'cola out of this

I hope it turns out that way

what?

I meant by it misses you

[rockyman]

The one thing on which the models agree...this system is probably going to go through the Yucatan Channel...this is bad news for the U.S no matter where it ends up

[Ivanhater]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Just my take, My confidence on it is a little higher then last night

leave P'cola out of this

I hope it turns out that way

what?

I meant by it misses you

lol, ok... I was thinking, what did I do to you?