Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #8

[boca]

It wouldn't surprise me if the models were all in the Bahamas by tomorrow.

[Scorpion]

Wow wxmann. Interesting scenario, I never thought of it that way.

[wxmann_91]

The upper-level environment is getting much more favorable. Development looks likely within the next 24-36 hours. Low-level convergence is weak but UL divergence is fantastic due to the arriving UL anticyclone. Climatology would not favor it, but from experience and also the location such a pattern usually results in pretty rapid strengthening once the inner core gets going. Also in this location and especially if it does not gain enough latitude, it might stall and become a very intense hurricane. NOT SAYING IT WILL HAPPEN, but just a heads-up. However this will probably not happen, because it's further east it will likely be picked up by the trough and move eastward. The trough will be crucial later on since if this wanders to far west it could spell disaster for the East Coast ala an Agnes or Floyd situation.

Wow interesting - you think possibly a stronger system and a shunt to the ENE missing Florida?

Yes, possibly, this is quite a difficult forecast, and where the LLC eventually ends up makes all the difference. Still, I do not believe this will be a Cat 4-5 hurricane, note 'intense' in this case probably means marginal 3 at most. I personally still believe the Mexico/TX and FL are the biggest threats attm; but all residents along the Gulf and East Coast should watch this carefully.

[Scorpion]

Yea, I wouldn't be surprised at faster organization once we get a core going. I think that this will achieve hurricane status.

[gatorcane]

It wouldn't surprise me if the models were all in the Bahamas by tomorrow.

It is certainly possible if it keeps nudging ENE like it has been doing for the past couple of days (assuming the center is indeed more E than where the NHC has it right now....but I think that probability is about 10% right now. Still a Florida threat.

[rockyman]

I'm not ready to write-off the initial low center...I believe this low pressure is the same center that's been around for about a week, and it's still spinning...with new convection forming near the center...I'm just not convinced that the area near the Caymans has "staying power"...we'll know for sure within a few hours.

I'll bet on an established surface low over a quick blow-up of convection any day of the week

[Bgator]

NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST - but here are my intensity predictions and chance of development:

Tropical depression - 80%
Tropical storm - 70%
Hurricane - 40%
Major hurricane - 10%

Here are mine. once again not official!

Tropical depression - 95%
Tropical storm - 85%
Hurricane - 40%
Major hurricane - 5%

[boca]

This system already looks like its starting to pull NNE now on satelite.

[DESTRUCTION5]

The upper-level environment is getting much more favorable. Development looks likely within the next 24-36 hours. Low-level convergence is weak but UL divergence is fantastic due to the arriving UL anticyclone. Climatology would not favor it, but from experience and also the location such a pattern usually results in pretty rapid strengthening once the inner core gets going. Also in this location and especially if it does not gain enough latitude, it might stall and become a very intense hurricane. NOT SAYING IT WILL HAPPEN, but just a heads-up. However this will probably not happen, because it's further east it will likely be picked up by the trough and move eastward. The trough will be crucial later on since if this wanders to far west it could spell disaster for the East Coast ala an Agnes or Floyd situation.

Wow interesting - you think possibly a stronger system and a shunt to the ENE missing Florida?

Yes, possibly, this is quite a difficult forecast, and where the LLC eventually ends up makes all the difference. Still, I do not believe this will be a Cat 4-5 hurricane, note 'intense' in this case probably means marginal 3 at most. I personally still believe the Mexico/TX and FL are the biggest threats attm; but all residents along the Gulf and East Coast should watch this carefully.

LOL Man you covered all the bases there

[ronjon]

A MLC is racing off to the N-NE near 19 N 82.5 W which should be detaching with the trough to the NE. The broad LLC is still located near 18 N 85 W. Look for the center to form in that location tomorrow as the trough races off and leaves the LLC alone with favorable conditions to develop and tighten up.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[CrazyC83]

I think its best chance for rapid intensification will come over the Loop Current, if it has developed enough by then. I think its peak strength will come well ahead of landfall and the storm will drop some on the approach - the offshore water (unlike the Loop Current) is not warm enough yet to sustain a major hurricane and barely warm enough to sustain a Category 1.

[wzrgirl1]

You still feel that mxico/tx are in the mix? I guess that is given the slim chance that it is not picked up by the trough?

[gatorcane]

You still feel that mxico/tx are in the mix? I guess that is given the slim chance that it is not picked up by the trough?

Im pretty sure that is what he means - it is still a possibility (I say like 1% now though)

[Aquawind]

LOL Man you covered all the bases there

No doubt..

[Rainband]

A MLC is racing off to the N-NE near 19 N 82.5 W which should be detaching with the trough to the NE. The broad LLC is still located near 18 N 85 W. Look for the center to form in that location tomorrow as the trough races off and leaves the LLC alone with favorable conditions to develop and tighten up.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Excellent post and it makes sense. We do need rain here...so it wouldn't be bad for us to get a lopsided TS. Thanks for the input.

[rockyman]

A MLC is racing off to the N-NE near 19 N 82.5 W which should be detaching with the trough to the NE. The broad LLC is still located near 18 N 85 W. Look for the center to form in that location tomorrow as the trough races off and leaves the LLC alone with favorable conditions to develop and tighten up.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

This is my thinking as well...the old bird is not ready to give up yet

[wxmann_91]

The upper-level environment is getting much more favorable. Development looks likely within the next 24-36 hours. Low-level convergence is weak but UL divergence is fantastic due to the arriving UL anticyclone. Climatology would not favor it, but from experience and also the location such a pattern usually results in pretty rapid strengthening once the inner core gets going. Also in this location and especially if it does not gain enough latitude, it might stall and become a very intense hurricane. NOT SAYING IT WILL HAPPEN, but just a heads-up. However this will probably not happen, because it's further east it will likely be picked up by the trough and move eastward. The trough will be crucial later on since if this wanders to far west it could spell disaster for the East Coast ala an Agnes or Floyd situation.

Wow interesting - you think possibly a stronger system and a shunt to the ENE missing Florida?

Yes, possibly, this is quite a difficult forecast, and where the LLC eventually ends up makes all the difference. Still, I do not believe this will be a Cat 4-5 hurricane, note 'intense' in this case probably means marginal 3 at most. I personally still believe the Mexico/TX and FL are the biggest threats attm; but all residents along the Gulf and East Coast should watch this carefully.

LOL Man you covered all the bases there

Thanks. I wonder what the Pros think, I was just thinking out loud and sketching out the options. If I were to make a track it would be similar to Wilma and half its intensity. (weak 1)

Most of the waters can support up to ~945 mb cane:

[gatorcane]

It wouldn't surprise me if the models were all in the Bahamas by tomorrow.

Also don't be fooled by the shear pushing the cloud tops NE. I actually think it is nearly stationary right now and the mid-level circulation is working its way down to the surface near the Cayman islands as we speak.

[Opal storm]

I am really surprised some of you actually think this thing has a chance at becoming a major hurricane.I think after what happened in 2005 you guys think that every little blob that pops up is going to explode into a Wilma.Yes I know this will be encountering a little more favorable conditions,that doesn't mean a cat 3.A weak hurricane at the very most IMO.

[rockyman]

Just for kicks, what evidence is there that the MLC is working its way down to the surface? I'm not sure how I'd know if this were occurring. Thanks!