Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #8

[tgenius]

Is Climatology THAT reliable to keep insisting it's going to follow the same beat?

[DESTRUCTION5]

"One thing to take note of when looking at the great model consensus for a track near or north of Tampa, FL is that they initialized the center possibly 150 miles too far west. I think it'll form not far west of the Cayman Islands, so the newer model runs may shift the track considerably to the east." from Wxman57 direct quote

If Wxman is saying this take note South Floridians seriously....

Hey...don't forget I said a center to form closer to the caymens earlier in the day...and that SOFLO wasn't out of the woods...

I saw it...i said i did not think it would be west of Tampa either

[wzrgirl1]

Is Climatology THAT reliable to keep insisting it's going to follow the same beat?

yes

[CHRISTY]

i say it is forming under this big blow up of thunderstorms....what u guys think?

[Opal storm]

It's amazing how much has changed in a little more than a day. Before it was supposed to be over the Yucatan for awhile and emerge in the BOC, perhaps threatening Mexico or Texas. Now it might form near where Arlene formed and hit the Florida Peninsula.

I know it's crazy.Who knows,maybe tomorrow the models might shift south of FL.

[gatorcane]

One thing to take note of when looking at the great model consensus for a track near or north of Tampa, FL is that they initialized the center possibly 150 miles too far west. I think it'll form not far west of the Cayman Islands, so the newer model runs may shift the track considerably to the east.

that would go against climatology but after the past two years anything is possible. I will be interested to see who is right after this is all said and done. I am taking notes

Well rainband from the beginning (that was several days ago folks) I called for an eastern GOM storm because I went with climatology - I called for a Tampa to Big Bend of Florida hit....now I am leaning somewhat towards a SW Florida hit (crossing South Florida). All I know is I am calling for a W coast of FL hit somewhere between the big bend an the Florida Keys.

[Ivanhater]

It's interesting that when Wxman said the storm might go into the BOC, no one even mentioned "listening" to him

[boca]

Ilm starting to think this system might track into the Bahamas and miss Florida totally. Still early in the game.

[JPmia]

yeah this one could be making up it's own rules! to be honest...i'm not worried about this as far as damage to my home...but worried about all the others down here who still have blue roofs....btw, if anyone wants to see what the blue roof phenomenon looks like go to our County's Property Appraiser's website and look at some of the aerial photography....Plenty of blue roofs show up as the pictures were taken last January of 06. here's the link...go to maps and aerials and zoom to any area of Broward County:

http://66.55.51.198/

[Air Force Met]

"One thing to take note of when looking at the great model consensus for a track near or north of Tampa, FL is that they initialized the center possibly 150 miles too far west. I think it'll form not far west of the Cayman Islands, so the newer model runs may shift the track considerably to the east." from Wxman57 direct quote

If Wxman is saying this take note South Floridians seriously....

Hey...don't forget I said a center to form closer to the caymens earlier in the day...and that SOFLO wasn't out of the woods...

I saw it...i said i did not think it would be west of Tampa either

To me a formation closer to the Caymen's was the choice. You have a weak low on an elongated trof with most of the convection to the NE and the greatest outflow located to the NE...it would seem that it should want to form closer to the Caymens...which is why I said it.

Now...if it does decide to form a little further west...I predict a center reformation to the east closer to the Caymens eventually...it has that feel to it.

[gatorcane]

Ilm starting to think this system might track into the Bahamas and miss Florida totally. Still early in the game.

Wow recon tomorrow will really help us nail this one I think

[Ivanhater]

local news on, our local E.O.C is watching it closely

[whereverwx]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

IMO, this will be similar Tropical Storm Bill (2003) in terms of strength and/or appearance, and it will have a path similar to Hurricane Allison (1995).

[gatorcane]

well there are at least 2 pro mets and myself saying the center could be reforming about 150 miles E of where the models have it initialized. So that would call ofr an eastward shift in the models if we are indeed correct.

[boca]

My reasoning for that statement is it will follow the path of least resistence which is right up the frontal trough.

[gatorcane]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

IMO, this will be similar Tropical Storm Bill (2003) in terms of strength and/or appearance, and it will have a path similar to Hurricane Allison (1995).

Calamity nice picture - but you are assuming the center is located 150 miles west of where I am thinking it will end up. Also you are mitigating the effects of the trough that is going to dig down (so there should be more bend to the NE in your picture sooner than later).

Nice forecast though

[Opal storm]

local news on, our local E.O.C is watching it closely

I'm not concerned about this at all,it will hit way south of here.Even if it does hit the Big Bend it will just be some rain for us,nothing more.

[senorpepr]

Is Climatology THAT reliable to keep insisting it's going to follow the same beat?

If it wasn't reliable, it wouldn't be called climatology.

[Ivanhater]

local news on, our local E.O.C is watching it closely

I'm not concerned about this at all,it will hit way south of here.Even if it does hit the Big Bend it will just be some rain for us,nothing more.

it is still very early, until this thing decides on where it wants to form, I will be watching this closely

[gatorcane]

I think we are starting to see the shear lessen considerably and the outflow engine is starting to get going. Do you see it folks or am I nuts?
The shear is still strong on the northern side of the system but the southern side and center have little shear now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html