Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #8

[cycloneye]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=85395

Thread #1

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=85410

Thread #2

http://storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=85418

Thread #3

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=85423

Thread #4

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 31&start=0

Thread #5

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 38&start=0

Thread #6

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 46&start=0

Thread #7

[gatorcane]

One thing to take note of when looking at the great model consensus for a track near or north of Tampa, FL is that they initialized the center possibly 150 miles too far west. I think it'll form not far west of the Cayman Islands, so the newer model runs may shift the track considerably to the east.

Wxman that is exactly what I think will happen here - maybe it will miss Florida all together to the east (I highly doubt it)

[JPmia]

"One thing to take note of when looking at the great model consensus for a track near or north of Tampa, FL is that they initialized the center possibly 150 miles too far west. I think it'll form not far west of the Cayman Islands, so the newer model runs may shift the track considerably to the east." from Wxman57 direct quote

[gatorcane]

"One thing to take note of when looking at the great model consensus for a track near or north of Tampa, FL is that they initialized the center possibly 150 miles too far west. I think it'll form not far west of the Cayman Islands, so the newer model runs may shift the track considerably to the east." from Wxman57 direct quote

If Wxman is saying this take note South Floridians seriously....

[Bgator]

"One thing to take note of when looking at the great model consensus for a track near or north of Tampa, FL is that they initialized the center possibly 150 miles too far west. I think it'll form not far west of the Cayman Islands, so the newer model runs may shift the track considerably to the east." from Wxman57 direct quote

If Wxman is saying this take note South Floridians seriously....

Freaky, im not scared yet as im not expecting anything big!

[HURAKAN]

If the system is coming to SF, I hope it moves quickly limiting the possibility of floods.

[gatorcane]

If the system is coming to SF, I hope it moves quickly limiting the possibility of floods.

Here in South Florida many roofs still have blue tarps and many need repairing.... a TS would spell trouble

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Someone else wrote:

It always seems the early season storms models take into Ceder Key.

I wanna see a major hurricane hit Tampa. It always seems imposible to get one into tampa.

Chances one hits tampa are about the chances I will ever score with Katharine Mcphee!

Well I DO NOT WANT TO SEE ANY MAJOR IN TAMPA.
I don't want any hurricanes.

Alberto, Stay the heck away from Tampa!

[JPmia]

Like I said in the last thread....this would be rather rare in terms of climatology...of course the last couple of hurricane seasons have choosen to ignore climatology.

[Scorpion]

I still don't see it. I see it going as far east as perhaps Tampa. Climatology does not support a South FL hit.

[Opal storm]

Wow,maybe the panhandle/Big Bend is out of the woods.

[NONAME]

When do the new model come out

[gatorcane]

I still don't see it. I see it going as far east as perhaps Tampa. Climatology does not support a South FL hit.

I am still leaning towards the Tampa area but if the center forms well east of where we "think" it is now it will cross South Florida.

[rockyman]

It's interesting that when Wxman said the storm might go into the BOC, no one even mentioned "listening" to him

[JPmia]

Wow,maybe the panhandle/Big Bend is out of the woods.

nah too early for that conclusion....let's see the next couple of model runs...and let's wait until we have a TD with a LLC to track.

[Bgator]

I keep looking at visibles, and i do not see that NW/NNW movement i want to see models that initiate it moving N/NNE as i see it and the LLC a bit farther east!

[Air Force Met]

"One thing to take note of when looking at the great model consensus for a track near or north of Tampa, FL is that they initialized the center possibly 150 miles too far west. I think it'll form not far west of the Cayman Islands, so the newer model runs may shift the track considerably to the east." from Wxman57 direct quote

If Wxman is saying this take note South Floridians seriously....

Hey...don't forget I said a center to form closer to the caymens earlier in the day...and that SOFLO wasn't out of the woods...

[Scorpion]

It's amazing how much has changed in a little more than a day. Before it was supposed to be over the Yucatan for awhile and emerge in the BOC, perhaps threatening Mexico or Texas. Now it might form near where Arlene formed and hit the Florida Peninsula.

[gatorcane]

I keep looking at visibles, and i do not see that NW/NNW movement i want to see models that initiate it moving N/NNE as i see it and the LLC a bit farther east!

Yeah if you think about it the whole mess has shifted ENE from the Yucatan over the past couple of days.

[Rainband]

One thing to take note of when looking at the great model consensus for a track near or north of Tampa, FL is that they initialized the center possibly 150 miles too far west. I think it'll form not far west of the Cayman Islands, so the newer model runs may shift the track considerably to the east.

that would go against climatology but after the past two years anything is possible. I will be interested to see who is right after this is all said and done. I am taking notes