Invest 90L,W,Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #7

[wzrgirl1]

Channel 10 said the system will not be heading towards S FL. We might get some additional rain showers thats it. NOT!!!

That actually sounds right.This will most likely go north of S FL,towards CFL and the Big Bend area.

I have lost some respect for channel 10, they just started to tick me off, but all channels are saying more rain for us at least, up to 7 inches!

Funny you should say that..........I was just telling my husband that Don Noe has absolutely no right to say that this system will not affect south florida directly..........it is way too early to say that and gives south floridians a false sense of security..........I have completely lost respect for him..........he should be telling us to watch the system closely, don't panic, and stay tuned.....don't you agree?

[boca]

This is clearly a tropical depression or tropical storm. Again NHC is being too conservative like usual.

Anyways Im issuing recommended hurricane watches for parts of Florida and Cuba.

I think a cat2 is possible out of this into central florida like Tampa area.

Welcome to s2k but lets not jump the gun. Its not even a depression yet.

[gatorcane]

Current Atlantic wind shear.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

[Dean4Storms]

I take it now that the western Gulf enthusiast have given that up?

Like I said yesterday, it made no sense with the overall synpotic weather situation that was developing. That said, it appears that we will have a TD tomorrow, a TS by late on Sunday as it moves into the SE Gulf. From there a slow intensification to reaching minimal hurricane strength is certainly possible before the front invites SW ot W shear over it and turns it NE toward the Big Bend area beginning Wed. The shear could do one of two things before landfall, hold it in check or weaken it gradually, my bet is for a slow weakening back to a TS before landfall.


THank God it is early June.

[CHRISTY]

until this is organized if it ever does because that also a possiblity...were it will track is very much up in the air.

[rockyman]

GFS thru 96 hours (Cedar Key):

[Recurve]

Funny you should say that..........I was just telling my husband that Don Noe has absolutely no right to say that this system will not affect south florida directly..........it is way too early to say that and gives south floridians a false sense of security..........I have completely lost respect for him..........he should be telling us to watch the system closely, don't panic, and stay tuned.....don't you agree?

I'd say he's seeing pretty definite signs, and reading models, showing it has little chance of going northeast so early. Don't be too hard on them when they don't shout Run! for every blob. I'm a bit panicky as is.

[Bgator]

Channel 10 said the system will not be heading towards S FL. We might get some additional rain showers thats it. NOT!!!

That actually sounds right.This will most likely go north of S FL,towards CFL and the Big Bend area.

I have lost some respect for channel 10, they just started to tick me off, but all channels are saying more rain for us at least, up to 7 inches!

Funny you should say that..........I was just telling my husband that Don Noe has absolutely no right to say that this system will not affect south florida directly..........it is way too early to say that and gives south floridians a false sense of security..........I have completely lost respect for him..........he should be telling us to watch the system closely, don't panic, and stay tuned.....don't you agree?

I agree massivly, last year they said wilma would not hit us, than BAM about a day before they were like, it will be worse than our katrina, so be prepared, and half of miami was not prepared, stores were selling out like crazy, the lines ta the hardware store were insane!

[JPmia]

If this thing does threaten southern FL it would be a rare event...climatology would suggest a Pandhandle/Big Bend/N Central FL target at this time of year. Interesting situation...when was the last storm that developed in this area in June?

[gatorcane]

I think the center is materializing just SW of the Cayman Islands - in that case a track through SW Florida is more likely.

[ericinmia]

Funny you should say that..........I was just telling my husband that Don Noe has absolutely no right to say that this system will not affect south florida directly..........it is way too early to say that and gives south floridians a false sense of security..........I have completely lost respect for him..........he should be telling us to watch the system closely, don't panic, and stay tuned.....don't you agree?

Last night i heard him say that only one model was doing anything with that low... and that it was taking it straight into mexico. This was post heat game around 12am+ I lost even more respect for him when i heard that. Because i had been watching models for DAYS that had been predicting this in one form or another.

[Dean4Storms]

GFS thru 96 hours (Cedar Key):

Makes alot of sense.

[CHRISTY]

GFS thru 96 hours (Cedar Key):

he is it me or that is a little south of the previous run.

[wxman57]

I do see evidence of a very weak LLC to the west of the Cayman Islands. but winds around it are only in the 10-15 kt range. Not consolidated enough or strong enough to warrant a TD. But I suspect it'll be upgraded to TD 1 tomorrow and TS Alberto by Sunday. I certainly wouldn't rule out a south Florida crossing or even Florida Straights. It's forming so far east that it may begin turning NE-ENE as it crosses Cuba. There are some fairly strong WSW winds across the SE Gulf.

Here's a new GARP image with sfc plots.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/alberto6.gif

[Bgator]

I think the center is materializing just SW of the Cayman Islands - in that case a track through SW Florida is more likely.

I think it has formed more east for sure, near about 84W

[wx247]

That's 5X of the same outlook on one page, no wonder the page count is getting so out of control. I really wish we'd all read Southerngale's post.....and people would strip out stuff that's not needed before posting a reply.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=85432

To be fair, it was only posted twice on the page... three time it was quoted which is valid in my opinion. I was not aware of the seperate thread for posting these. I am now and am trying to keep up with the fast and furious posting. Bear with me!!!

[CHRISTY]

I think the center is materializing just SW of the Cayman Islands - in that case a track through SW Florida is more likely.

greg sitzer was just sayin the same thing on channel 4 boca.

[gatorcane]

I do see evidence of a very weak LLC to the west of the Cayman Islands. but winds around it are only in the 10-15 kt range. Not consolidated enough or strong enough to warrant a TD. But I suspect it'll be upgraded to TD 1 tomorrow and TS Alberto by Sunday. I certainly wouldn't rule out a south Florida crossing or even Florida Straights. It's forming so far east that it may begin turning NE-ENE as it crosses Cuba. There are some fairly strong WSW winds across the SE Gulf.

Here's a new GARP image with sfc plots.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/alberto6.gif

WxMan I have been telling everybody all along DO NOT rule out South Florida - now they will listen since you are a pro met !

[StormScanWx]

Anyone got the latest spaghetti model maps?

[wxman57]

I do see evidence of a very weak LLC to the west of the Cayman Islands. but winds around it are only in the 10-15 kt range. Not consolidated enough or strong enough to warrant a TD. But I suspect it'll be upgraded to TD 1 tomorrow and TS Alberto by Sunday. I certainly wouldn't rule out a south Florida crossing or even Florida Straights. It's forming so far east that it may begin turning NE-ENE as it crosses Cuba. There are some fairly strong WSW winds across the SE Gulf.

Here's a new GARP image with sfc plots.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/alberto6.gif

WxMan I have been telling everybody all along DO NOT rule out South Florida - now they will listen since you are a pro met !

Well, I was also somewhat sure it might cut across the Yucatan and move to Mexico last night. Just goes to show you that you can rarely have very high confidence in a system that doesn't exist yet.