Invest 90L,W,Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #7

Aquawind · #421 Postby **Aquawind** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 4:49 pm

It's cool Swimdude.. This is clearly a frenzy..and it's moving so fast.. :lol:

#422 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 4:52 pm

GFS out to 36 hours....just off the northeast tip of the Yucatan.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #423 Postby **senorpepr** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 4:52 pm

It's so funny when people start reading products not intended for the public (ie. TCFAs) and start flying their freak flags...

Just relax and continue to monitor the situation. This will probably be a threat to the US Gulf Coast (somewhere), as it stands now. Although there is a chance that this will not develop. It's too early, especially with a developing system. Furthermore, the chance of a hurricane, especially a major hurricane, is about a low as Don King considering a haircut.

#424 Postby **Trader Ron** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 4:53 pm

Well, i mentioned the "word", so i stand corrected.

CHRISTY · #425 Postby **CHRISTY** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 4:53 pm

senorpepr wrote:It's so funny when people start reading products not intended for the public (ie. TCFAs) and start flying their freak flags...

Just relax and continue to monitor the situation. This will probably be a threat to the US Gulf Coast (somewhere), as it stands now. Although there is a chance that this will not develop. It's too early, especially with a developing system. Furthermore, the chance of a hurricane, especially a major hurricane, is about a low as Don King considering a haircut.

Website · #426 Postby **Brent** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 4:54 pm

senorpepr wrote:It's so funny when people start reading products not intended for the public (ie. TCFAs) and start flying their freak flags...

Just relax and continue to monitor the situation. This will probably be a threat to the US Gulf Coast (somewhere), as it stands now. Although there is a chance that this will not develop. It's too early, especially with a developing system. Furthermore, the chance of a hurricane, especially a major hurricane, is about a low as Don King considering a haircut.

ROFL!

#427 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 4:55 pm

the chance of a hurricane, especially a major hurricane, is about a low as Don King considering a haircut.

Bgator · #428 Postby **Bgator** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 4:56 pm

Down here in Miami, one of our local meteo. said we can expect up to 7 inches of rain monday and tuesday, im sure this has to do with this system moving northward! We can sure use 7 inches of rain, boy i hope!

MiamiensisWx · #429 Postby **MiamiensisWx** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 4:56 pm

senorpepr wrote:Furthermore, the chance of a hurricane, especially a major hurricane, is about a low as Don King considering a haircut.

Cyclenall · #430 Postby **Cyclenall** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 4:59 pm

senorpepr wrote:Furthermore, the chance of a hurricane, especially a major hurricane, is about a low as Don King considering a haircut.

LOL

% of becoming:

99% chance of becoming a Tropical Depression
80% chance of becoming a Tropical Storm
45% chance of becoming a Hurricane
0.2% chance of becoming a Major Hurricane
0.002% chance of becoming a Category 5 Hurricane

boca · #431 Postby **boca** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 5:00 pm

Channel 10 said the system will not be heading towards S FL. We might get some additional rain showers thats it. NOT!!!

#432 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 5:00 pm

senorpepr wrote:It's so funny when people start reading products not intended for the public (ie. TCFAs) and start flying their freak flags...

Just relax and continue to monitor the situation. This will probably be a threat to the US Gulf Coast (somewhere), as it stands now. Although there is a chance that this will not develop. It's too early, especially with a developing system. Furthermore, the chance of a hurricane, especially a major hurricane, is about a low as Don King considering a haircut.

Why do you say it can't develop into a major hurricane - there really isn't much going against it? It has high SSTs low shear. In fact just a couple of days ago it was not going to develop and be some feature in the BOC. You look at it now and is is rather impressive for June....

#433 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 5:00 pm

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/dan ... testBW.gif

Down to 24 hours!!!

Recurve · #434 Postby **Recurve** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 5:00 pm

Has this GFDL been hashed in -- (haven't digested the whole thread)

GFDL
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2006060912-invest90l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

90L at 104k 975.7Hpa at the Big Bend time at T +78 hrs.

SWFLA_CANE · #435 Postby **SWFLA_CANE** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 5:01 pm

Question...Would NHC make this a TD prior to the recon flight, if it looked good on the sat. or do they usually wait for the recon flight?

#436 Postby **btangy** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 5:01 pm

no advance wrote:One thing GFS says it is ablockbuster N At. storm. Prey for surf.

Given the severe flooding problems in New England, forecasters will be watching this very carefully. The last thing we need is another 2-4 inch rainstorm and coastal flooding to go along with it.

NWS Boston/Taunton 5pm discussion:

TROPICAL SYSTEM BEING WATCHED IN THE NW CARRIBEAN EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LIKELY LINK UP WITH SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER SHORT WAVE TROF MOVING OFF THE E COAST AROUND MID WEEK. SYSTEM SHOULD TRANSITION TO EXTRATROPICAL BUT WILL
LIKELY BE LOADED WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE AND MAY BECOME AN UNUSUALLY STRONG BAROCLINIC SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. GFS OPERATIONAL RUNS AND ENSEMBLES IN ADDITION TO ECMWF AND GEM SHOW THIS FEATURE WITH A TRACK CONSENSUS PLACING SURFACE LOW CENTER PASSING SE OF BENCHMARK BY 100 MILES OR SO. THE 12Z GEM IS QUITE CONSISTENT WITH ITS 00Z RUN OF BRINGING SYSTEM FASTER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST...IN FACT DEPICTS
EXTRAORDINARILY INTENSE SYSTEM WITH EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL
AFFECTING REGION. THIS MODEL...FORTUNATELY...DOES [NOT] APPEAR SUPPORTED BY OTHER MEDIUM MODELS TO SUCH AN EXTREME EXTENT. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS FOR A RELATIVELY HIGH RISK OF A SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACT BY AT LEAST SEAS AND POSSIBLY GALE FORCE WINDS OVER OUTER COASTAL WATERS. IN ADDITION...THE WED AND THU AM ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE RUNNING NEAR 11 FT ABOVE MLLW IN BOS. ALTHOUGH THIS POTENTIAL EVENT IS STILL VERY FAR OUT...THIS ONE COULD BE FAR MORE PROBLEMATIC THAN PREVIOUS SYSTEMS WITH REGARD TO IMPACT ALONG COAST. FOR NOW...JUST HAVE CHANCE POPS IN SE ZONES...AS MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD PLACE RAIN SHIELD JUST OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...A FURTHER W TRACK COULD RESULT IN EXCESSIVE QPF VALUES BEING CONSIDERED ONSHORE. NOTICED THAT THE 12 ECMWF OPERATIONAL RUN IS INSIDE OF ITS PREVIOUS RUN...BRINGING LOW CENTER CLOSE TO BENCHMARK AROUND 12Z THU.

Aquawind · #437 Postby **Aquawind** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 5:01 pm

Easily would make the call prior if data supports it..

Website · #438 Postby **Brent** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 5:02 pm

SWFLA_CANE wrote:Question...Would NHC make this a TD prior to the recon flight, if it looked good on the sat. or do they usually wait for the recon flight?

If they confirm a definite LLC, they could do it before recon gets there. They have before...

Rainband · #439 Postby **Rainband** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 5:02 pm

boca wrote:Channel 10 said the system will not be heading towards S FL. We might get some additional rain showers thats it. NOT!!!

Well most of the models keep it in the Se/central GOM and it will most likely be lopsided..so that sounds about right :wink:

Too much shear for this to become anything more than a rainmaker.

CHRISTY · #440 Postby **CHRISTY** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 5:03 pm

SWFLA_CANE wrote:Question...Would NHC make this a TD prior to the recon flight, if it looked good on the sat. or do they usually wait for the recon flight?

usually they wait for recon.

Invest 90L,W,Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #7

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