Aquawind wrote::crying: I want my mommie...
lol. Is this some nightmare - this can't be happening to Florida again!!!
Invest 90L,W,Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #7
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gatorcane
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lol. Is this some nightmare - this can't be happening to Florida again!!!
Last edited by gatorcane on Fri Jun 09, 2006 4:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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whereverwx
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Trader Ron
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CHRISTY
boca_chris wrote:BreinLa wrote:Okay time to try and call my brother and sister in law they are in the Keys strolling around the gulf in their Yacht sheeeesh
Wow I think I am having a nightmare. I can't believe the Florida Keys are at risk (again).!!!!
By the way do we have a center fix yet?
i dont think so boca but iam not sure.
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Evil Jeremy
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Opal storm
The Florida Keys?Have the models shifted that far south?I'm confused I haven't been on in a couple of hours.boca_chris wrote:BreinLa wrote:Okay time to try and call my brother and sister in law they are in the Keys strolling around the gulf in their Yacht sheeeesh
Wow I think I am having a nightmare. I can't believe the Florida Keys are at risk (again).
By the way do we have a center fix yet?
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gatorcane
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Opal storm wrote:The Florida Keys?Have the models shifted that far south?I'm confused I haven't been on in a couple of hours.boca_chris wrote:BreinLa wrote:Okay time to try and call my brother and sister in law they are in the Keys strolling around the gulf in their Yacht sheeeesh
Wow I think I am having a nightmare. I can't believe the Florida Keys are at risk (again).
By the way do we have a center fix yet?
NHC is forecasting it to move into the SE GOM so the Florida Keys will feel effects - still uncertain will it will cross Florida maybe farther north though closer to the Tampa area or big bend..
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cycloneye
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boca_chris wrote:Trader Ron wrote:Subj / Tropical Formation Alert:
Formation of a Significant Tropical Cyclone is POSSIBLE....hmmmmm
Where does it say "significant" ????
Go to page 18 and read the text.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
FXUS62 KTBW 091725
AFDTBW
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
125 PM EDT FRI JUN 9 2006
[color=black]SAT-SAT NT...TROPICAL FEATURE EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHERLY
ADVECTING MOISTURE PLUME FURTHER N LATER SAT.[/color] AS LL MOISTURE
BEGINS TO MAKE COMEBACK ON INCREASED SE FLOW FOR LARGER AREA OF
ISOLATED AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHTTIME CONVECTION AGAIN MAINLY
SOUTHERN AND INTERIOR AREAS WITH MAX TEMPS AT TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO.
SUN...TROPICAL FEATURE IN SOUTHERN GULF...EXACT POSITION STILL
UNCERTAIN...BUT WELL SW-W OF THE AREA PUTTING OUR AREA IN MOIST
EASTERN SIDE OF SYSTEM SO HAVE INCREASED POPS BY AT LEAST 10
PERCENT ALL AREAS WITH MOST OF PRECIP COMING WITH DIURNAL HEATING.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND COORDINATE WITH NHC OF FEATURE.
.LONG TERM (SUN NGT-FRI)...LITTLE CONFIDENCE WITH CURRENT FORECAST
AS MODELS HAVE DONE A 180 FROM YESTERDAY. MOST ARE NOW TAKING THE
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF
AND THEN MOVING IT AROUND THE RIDGE AND INTO N FL SOMEWHERE. HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND IN THIS DIRECTION TOWARD THE GFS...BRINGING POPS
UP INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THIS
SHOULD BE THE FAVORED TIMING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. AS IT THEN MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE AND GETS CAUGHT UP IN A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE
NORTH...WILL START TO DRY OUT WED AND CONTINUE DRYING THROUGH FRI
WITH ONLY ISOLATED POPS IN FOR THU AND FRI. HAVE TRENDED MAX TEMPS
DOWN AND MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE CLOUDS AND
RAIN. HAVE ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER AND WINDS. WILL SEE HOW FUTURE
RUNS HANDLE THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM AND ADJUST AS
NECESSARY.
&&
.MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO LATE IN THE WEEKEND THEN POSSIBLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED WHILE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE LATER THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN ELEVATED INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SITUATION WITH NHC FOR
ANY UPDATES.
AFDTBW
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
125 PM EDT FRI JUN 9 2006
[color=black]SAT-SAT NT...TROPICAL FEATURE EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHERLY
ADVECTING MOISTURE PLUME FURTHER N LATER SAT.[/color] AS LL MOISTURE
BEGINS TO MAKE COMEBACK ON INCREASED SE FLOW FOR LARGER AREA OF
ISOLATED AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHTTIME CONVECTION AGAIN MAINLY
SOUTHERN AND INTERIOR AREAS WITH MAX TEMPS AT TO JUST ABOVE CLIMO.
SUN...TROPICAL FEATURE IN SOUTHERN GULF...EXACT POSITION STILL
UNCERTAIN...BUT WELL SW-W OF THE AREA PUTTING OUR AREA IN MOIST
EASTERN SIDE OF SYSTEM SO HAVE INCREASED POPS BY AT LEAST 10
PERCENT ALL AREAS WITH MOST OF PRECIP COMING WITH DIURNAL HEATING.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND COORDINATE WITH NHC OF FEATURE.
.LONG TERM (SUN NGT-FRI)...LITTLE CONFIDENCE WITH CURRENT FORECAST
AS MODELS HAVE DONE A 180 FROM YESTERDAY. MOST ARE NOW TAKING THE
TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF
AND THEN MOVING IT AROUND THE RIDGE AND INTO N FL SOMEWHERE. HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND IN THIS DIRECTION TOWARD THE GFS...BRINGING POPS
UP INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THIS
SHOULD BE THE FAVORED TIMING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. AS IT THEN MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE AND GETS CAUGHT UP IN A FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE
NORTH...WILL START TO DRY OUT WED AND CONTINUE DRYING THROUGH FRI
WITH ONLY ISOLATED POPS IN FOR THU AND FRI. HAVE TRENDED MAX TEMPS
DOWN AND MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE CLOUDS AND
RAIN. HAVE ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER AND WINDS. WILL SEE HOW FUTURE
RUNS HANDLE THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM AND ADJUST AS
NECESSARY.
&&
.MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO LATE IN THE WEEKEND THEN POSSIBLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED WHILE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE LATER THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN ELEVATED INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SITUATION WITH NHC FOR
ANY UPDATES.
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Trader Ron
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Opal storm
FXUS62 KMLB 091906
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
255 PM EDT FRI JUN 9 2006
.DISCUSSION...
MON-TUE...
FCST GETS A LITTLE DICEY AS SEVERAL OF THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
RUNS ARE DEVELOPING A STORM SYSTEM OUT OF THE WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER
THE NW CARIB AND PULLS IT AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLC
RIDGE...INTO THE CENTRAL GOMEX BY 00Z MON...THE ACROSS THE NRN
PENINSULA THRU 00Z WED. THIS IS CLEARLY REFLECTED IN THE PRECIP
TREND FOR THE MEX MOS OUTPUT: 10-20 POPS OFF THE 08/00Z RUN...50/60
POPS OFF THE 09/00Z RUN. LATEST TROPICAL OUTLOOK FROM TPC INDICATES
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE SOLUTION AS WELL. WILL INCREASE POPS
TO 40/50% AREAWIDE THRU THE PD...WITH TEMPS AOB CLIMO DUE TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CLOUDS/RAINFALL. [b]WED-THU...
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FCST AS IT WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON
WHAT...IF ANYTHING...MATERIALIZES IN THE NW CARIB AND GULF OF
MEXICO. &&
.[/b]
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
255 PM EDT FRI JUN 9 2006
.DISCUSSION...
MON-TUE...
FCST GETS A LITTLE DICEY AS SEVERAL OF THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
RUNS ARE DEVELOPING A STORM SYSTEM OUT OF THE WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER
THE NW CARIB AND PULLS IT AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLC
RIDGE...INTO THE CENTRAL GOMEX BY 00Z MON...THE ACROSS THE NRN
PENINSULA THRU 00Z WED. THIS IS CLEARLY REFLECTED IN THE PRECIP
TREND FOR THE MEX MOS OUTPUT: 10-20 POPS OFF THE 08/00Z RUN...50/60
POPS OFF THE 09/00Z RUN. LATEST TROPICAL OUTLOOK FROM TPC INDICATES
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE SOLUTION AS WELL. WILL INCREASE POPS
TO 40/50% AREAWIDE THRU THE PD...WITH TEMPS AOB CLIMO DUE TO
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CLOUDS/RAINFALL. [b]WED-THU...
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FCST AS IT WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON
WHAT...IF ANYTHING...MATERIALIZES IN THE NW CARIB AND GULF OF
MEXICO. &&
.[/b]
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