Invest 90L,W,Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #7

[vbhoutex]

If the "center" of this low pressure area does develop where it now appears it could, over the area between the Grand Caymans and the Yuc, it indeed will be an E GOM problem unless it just gets trapped down there and sits and waits for everything to move out, which is very unlikely. But, we have seem systems like this stew for up to a week before they really do anything and if something like that happens all bets are off.
Question for a more knowledgeable amatuer or a pro-Is the trof that is pulling back NE now even close enough to affect this system? Isn't the rule of thumb loosely 8º-10º of seperation and there is normally little effect?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Eye forming by the looks of it

Not a chance

[wxman57]

I noticed that JB finally chimed in with a mid-day update. He's in agreement of something forming out there Sunday by the northern Yucatan then tracking NE toward the FL Peninsula (NE Gulf) as opposed to the NW Gulf. I agree, looking more likely for development, but I don't think we'll see a well-defined LLC until maybe Sunday.

[Air Force Met]

Geez...some mets say west gulf, some say central gulf, and some say eastern gulf. It's amazing! I'm doing my own thing and not really listening to anyone because the way it looks right now, amateurs know about as much as the pros.

Well...Jeff's email about a POSSIBLE west GOM was late last night/early this morning. Lot's has changed since then. Since then. the modeling has moved dramatically to the east. I doubt he has the same opinion any longer. I don't see any promets calling for a western GOM landfall or track right now...

But...feel free to do your own thing.

[Air Force Met]

Eye forming by the looks of it

You are joking...right?

[drezee]

I noticed that JB finally chimed in with a mid-day update. He's in agreement of something forming out there Sunday by the northern Yucatan then tracking NE toward the FL Peninsula (NE Gulf) as opposed to the NW Gulf. I agree, looking more likely for development, but I don't think we'll see a well-defined LLC until maybe Sunday.

The data I gathered below supports mutliple centers

Interesting observation out of Buoy 42056, During a time of day that the pressure would normally fall, it has risen quickly. If you look at the observations, it seems as if a smaller circualtion is rotating around a larger one. The pressure fell quickly and rose back to the point of the normal pressure cycle. The dewpoint also shot through the roof and came back down again. I give the NHC credit on not classifying it. It seems to still be quite broad.

Previous observations MM DD TIME
06 09 1650 E 13.6 17.6 4.6 6 4.7 E 29.79 -0.01 81.3 83.1 75.9 - - -
06 09 1550 E 13.6 19.4 4.6 6 4.7 E 29.75 -0.04 80.6 83.1 76.6 - - -
06 09 1450 NE 11.7 13.6 4.3 6 4.5 E 29.74 -0.03 79.3 83.1 77.4 - - -
06 09 1350 ENE 11.7 15.5 4.6 6 4.3 E 29.80 +0.04 81.9 83.3 76.8 - - -

Not to blow the whole thing, but a strong feeder band with heavy rain would exhibit about the same behaviour...except for the amount of pressure fall.

[boca]

Wxman57 does that mean that lower SE Florida will get atleast rain too.

[skysummit]

Geez...some mets say west gulf, some say central gulf, and some say eastern gulf. It's amazing! I'm doing my own thing and not really listening to anyone because the way it looks right now, amateurs know about as much as the pros.

Well...Jeff's email about a POSSIBLE west GOM was late last night/early this morning. Lot's has changed since then. Since then. the modeling has moved dramatically to the east. I doubt he has the same opinion any longer. I don't see any promets calling for a western GOM landfall or track right now...

But...feel free to do your own thing.

LOL....Come on AFM, you know I always value your opinion!

[Ivan14]

It looks like it is trying to get its act together. It is trying to wrap up and get organized.

[x-y-no]

Eye forming by the looks of it

No. So far, this may not even be a closed circulation, let alone a tropical cylone. You don't get an eye in this kind of mess. Not even in the vast majority of tropical storms.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Maybe an eye-like feature but not a real eye.

[cycloneye]

wxman57,do you think that NHC will send the recon mission tommorow afternoon? IMO recon will go but I want an opinion from one of our resident pro mets.

[Air Force Met]

LOL....Come on AFM, you know I always value your opinion!

Just setting the record straight

[boca]

How can this system have an eye when its just organizing and have multiple centers. NO EYE.

[Thunder44]

Eye forming by the looks of it

You are joking...right?

Well, maybe he just trying to be evil.

[Noles2006]

Eye forming by the looks of it

ROFLMFAO!

[vbhoutex]

Geez...some mets say west gulf, some say central gulf, and some say eastern gulf. It's amazing! I'm doing my own thing and not really listening to anyone because the way it looks right now, amateurs know about as much as the pros.

Well...Jeff's email about a POSSIBLE west GOM was late last night/early this morning. Lot's has changed since then. Since then. the modeling has moved dramatically to the east. I doubt he has the same opinion any longer. I don't see any promets calling for a western GOM landfall or track right now...

But...feel free to do your own thing.

After I posted that I looked further and noticed that AFM. Thus my post after that about the higher probability of an E GOM problem. Both sides of the GOM could use the rain.

[Wnghs2007]

Right now it looks like the clusters of thunderstorms are forming along mesoscale boundaries left over from previous thunderstorms. There does appear to be several mid level circulations that form when the thunderstorms are at there max and then spin down once the thunderstorms are sheared off and die.

This may take a while before it gets organized to the point at where it could be classified a potential Tropical System.

[HurricaneHunter914]

He's doing a good job at it too. JK.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think we have a LLC at 18 north/85.2 west organizing slowly. A MLC at 19 north/82.5. Looks to be forming some banding...Might have a depression here if convection increases.