Invest 90L,W,Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #7

[Steve]

>>Doubt it, extreme. This Western Sizzler ridge on top of us (Texas) doesn't seem to be going anywhere any time soon

It's supposed to be out of here by Tuesday (just filtering into SELA now) according to yesterday's ABC 26 weather forecast.

Steve

[boca]

Extreme I atually have no idea were this thing is going I'm trying to play catch up because my daughter is sick taking up my time. GFS seemed to have shifted eastward since yesterday. I'm sure it will shift some more until a center forms.

[jasons2k]

This thing is developing in the SW corner of the NW Carrib. Based on this...it may actually still have a chance to be a western Gulf problem. JB is suppose to come out with a detailed post on this situation later today. Can't wait to see what he'll say.

The only part of the western gulf it looks like affecting would be Mexico at this point. That's assuming it misses the trough completely and doesn't go to FL. If it misses the trough and does get "trapped" in the GOM look for it to then possibly be suppressed to the W or even SW by the ridge, but it looks more and more like the "death ridge" will protect us here in SE Texas.

I would not be surprised if JB does indeed say "look out oil interestes in the GOM" (which would be us and LA), in fact I'll wager he probably will......but those are the areas least likely to be affected - at least from today's viewpoint.

[beachbum_al]

I think we will know more later tonight what this system is going to do. I have to agree that it looks like it is getting more organized but I will leave that up to the experts. (I am not one)

[White Cap]

I wonder what affects the full moon on Sunday will have on this system, if any?

[gatorcane]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

at this point I am calling for a TS into the big bend area or w coast of Florida (within 50 miles of the Tampa area).

[deltadog03]

I am also wondering about if this gets trapped into the gom. JB DID make mention to that yesterday. I think the models are too quick with this system...and IMO this could get trapped.

[Scorpion]

If it develops in the BOM then it's a whole different ballgame regarding intensity, IMO.

[gatorcane]

there is a difference between dry air weakening a system near land (since the dry air has an endless supply coming from a landmass) and dry air temporarily over a water body like the GOM. If this ystem gets into the GOM then it is going to draw plenty of moisture from the GOM and surrounding water bodies (e.g BOC and Caribbean).

[boca]

Could the center be between the two higher cloud tops about 200 miles WSW of Grand Cayman.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

[gatorcane]

Could the center be between the two higher cloud tops about 200 miles WSW of Grand Cayman.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

Boca that is a possible mid level circulation. The low level circulation is farther WSW. Go the goes floater and click "NHC Fonts" to see where it is. The low is right below the huge thunderstorm complex.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[White Cap]

According to that astrometeorologist she said look for a tropical system to develop in early June in the Texas Gulf region and off the coast of Mexico and predicts a low to develop in the Caribbean and move north on June 18th. Not sure I believe in all this type of stuff, but it will be interesting to see if any of this happens, and if so, then I may begin freaking out with the rest of her predictions for the season!

[cycloneye]

WTNT80 EGRR 091648



MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 09.06.2006



TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION :

17.0N 84.3W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 09.06.2006 17.0N 84.3W WEAK

00UTC 10.06.2006 17.8N 84.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 10.06.2006 18.3N 84.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 11.06.2006 21.1N 86.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 11.06.2006 22.8N 87.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 12.06.2006 24.7N 88.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 12.06.2006 25.4N 89.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 13.06.2006 25.5N 89.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 13.06.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH




Above are the plots from the 12 UTC run of the UKMET model.

[dizzyfish]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

at this point I am calling for a TS into the big bend area or w coast of Florida (within 50 miles of the Tampa area).

NO!!!! That's me!!! /jkng/

Actually it is pretty close. No thanks - but I'll take the rain. (can you say crunchy?)

I saw one of the Tampa mets at noon today. He showed (with the wind direction arrows in a loop) the system coming in just north of me. Maybe Sumter/Lee County. I think that this far out that is was pretty irresponsible of him to do that!

[HURAKAN]

THE MAIN WEATHER INTEREST IN THIS AREA IS A 1006 MB LOW IN THE
NW CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 17N86W. THIS LOW SITS ON A SLOW
MOVING SFC TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM W CUBA TO HONDURAS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN
78W-87W. SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE BEEN IN THIS REGION FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK...BUT TODAY THERE IS MORE ORGANIZATION TO THE ACTIVITY.
THIS BROAD/ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
DEVELOPING WITH BUOY OBS REPORTING 15-20 KT WINDS AROUND THE LOW
CENTER. IN ADDITION...COMPUTER MODELS HAVE BECOME IN FAIR
AGREEMENT SLOWLY STRENGTHENING THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MIGRATES NWARD TOWARDS THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE
E CARIBBEAN...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE
GENERATED BY AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED NE OF PUERTO RICO. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE E CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND AS A CENTRAL
ATLANTIC SFC RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE AND THE UPPER HIGH NEARLY
STATIONARY. THE NW CARIBBEAN WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE AS THE
SFC TROUGH AND LOW MOVE NWD OR NNWARD THIS WEEKEND.

[drezee]

Interesting observation out of Buoy 42056, During a time of day that the pressure would normally fall, it has risen quickly. If you look at the observations, it seems as if a smaller circualtion is rotating around a larger one. The pressure fell quickly and rose back to the point of the normal pressure cycle. The dewpoint also shot through the roof and came back down again. I give the NHC credit on not classifying it. It seems to still be quite broad.

Previous observations MM DD TIME
06 09 1650 E 13.6 17.6 4.6 6 4.7 E 29.79 -0.01 81.3 83.1 75.9 - - -
06 09 1550 E 13.6 19.4 4.6 6 4.7 E 29.75 -0.04 80.6 83.1 76.6 - - -
06 09 1450 NE 11.7 13.6 4.3 6 4.5 E 29.74 -0.03 79.3 83.1 77.4 - - -
06 09 1350 ENE 11.7 15.5 4.6 6 4.3 E 29.80 +0.04 81.9 83.3 76.8 - - -

Not to blow the whole thing, but a strong feeder band with heavy rain would exhibit about the same behaviour...except for the amount of pressure fall.

[HurricaneHunter914]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Ya never know if he's right, but for me I think a Florida Big Bend hit (hopefully West Coast Hit because we are dry to the bone here in Central Florida) will probably where this system will hit.

[gatorcane]

HurricaneHunter if it hits the big bend you will get plenty of rain/winds since you are on the east side....

[Stratusxpeye]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

at this point I am calling for a TS into the big bend area or w coast of Florida (within 50 miles of the Tampa area).

that would be perfect. give us all the rain we need and a lil wind to blow these dumb pine needles and dead branches off all my trees. Just no more than 50-60mph. Just want a fun weather system to track not death and destruction. If its a cat 2 or higher ill put up a wall and deflect it back down south where it came from

[vbhoutex]

This is from Jeff, one of our pro-mets in an email he sends out to his TX area subscribers.

Track:



Model guidance is heavy spilt and in little agreement with where the actual center will form, if it does. Controlling features include the current ridge of high pressure over TX and a forecasted weakness to develop over the central Gulf of Mexico early next week. The area should drift slowly toward the WNW or NW for the next 24-48 hours and then move into the Yucatan this weekend and the Gulf of Mexico early next week. Land interactions along with the poor organization make it very difficult to try and determine where a center will emerge in the Gulf of Mexico. NHC/HPC progs show a wave axis with surface low in the western Gulf of Mexico off the lower TX coast during the early the middle part of next week however the GFS takes the system toward FL.



Local Forecast:



Upper ridge remains in firm control of our weather with near record heat being produced as a result. Ridge will shift eastward with a weakness developing over E TX late in the weekend into early next week. At this point a potential tropical system may be moving into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Forecast after Monday is highly dependant on a tropical system in the Gulf and location of a weakness in the upper level height field along the Gulf coast for track.

If the ridge does indeed move east I would say the E GOM is pretty much in the clear. Of course, TIMING IS EVERYTHING, so as usual we just wait and see. It doesn't appear that anything will be anywhere near definite till late in the weekend at earliest.

Boca_Chris, would you please explain your reasoning in light of the above post?