Invest 90L,W,Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #7

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:37 am

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=85395

Thread #1

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=85410

Thread #2

http://storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=85418

Thread #3

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=85423

Thread #4

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 31&start=0

Thread #5

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 38&start=0

Thread #6

x-y-no · #2 Postby **x-y-no** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:38 am

drezee wrote:You can see in the IR and the VIS that the mid-level "center" is peeling off to the NE. There can be no rapid development with such a thing. A new one would need to form.

Yes, I was noting the same thing. but the separation is getting large enough now that it has a fair chance of stacking a new MLC over the area where the LLC is trying to form.

I think this has a fair chance of getting to TD overnight.

beachbum_al · #3 Postby **beachbum_al** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:38 am

No Advance be careful of what you wish for. You might get more than you want in the line of surf.

On the other side of things. I am no expert but is the brown area in the Gulf-Doesn't that represent dry air? Is that supposed to leave the Gulf? Just wondering.

Are you talking about Crown Weather? If you are lookign for that link here it is.

http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html

In the middle of typing and it was locked. Good thing I know how to C&P.

meteorologyman · #4 Postby **meteorologyman** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:39 am

Here are some TWC maps

http://www.weather.com/maps/oceans.html
http://www.weather.com/maps/oceans.html

#5 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:40 am

I know I have posted a few comments about it but what shear is everybody worried about - based on the latest map it has relaxed today. The entire GOM is looking pretty favorable for development - still shear over Florida though.

meteorologyman · #6 Postby **meteorologyman** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:40 am

beachbum_al wrote:No Advance be careful of what you wish for. You might get more than you want in the line of surf.

On the other side of things. I am no expert but is the brown area in the Gulf-Doesn't that represent dry air? Is that supposed to leave the Gulf? Just wondering.

Are you talking about Crown Weather? If you are lookign for that link here it is.

http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html

In the middle of typing and it was locked. Good thing I know how to C&P.

I love that site I posted it i dunno how many times, sorry for getting off topic

#7 Postby **terstorm1012** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:45 am

boca_chris wrote:I know I have posted a few comments about it but what shear is everybody worried about - based on the latest map it has relaxed today. The entire GOM is looking pretty favorable for development - still shear over Florida though.

I thought there was still a trough over the Gulf, per the Tropical Weather Discussion

Extremeweatherguy · #8 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:45 am

This thing is developing in the SW corner of the NW Carrib. Based on this...it may actually still have a chance to be a western Gulf problem. JB is suppose to come out with a detailed post on this situation later today. Can't wait to see what he'll say.

Tampa_God · #9 Postby **Tampa_God** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:46 am

So, what is the possibility of this hitting west Florida? I do believe we will see something form from this system, but I am not sure where. I have between Alabama/Florida border to Key West.

Extremeweatherguy · #10 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:49 am

I wonder when and if a "special tropical disturbance statement" will be issued for this system.

DESTRUCTION5 · #11 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:49 am

Tampa_God wrote:So, what is the possibility of this hitting west Florida? I do believe we will see something form from this system, but I am not sure where. I have between Alabama/Florida border to Key West.

The reformation further east puts you pretty close..LOL

Yankeegirl · #12 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:50 am

OK...the model link is from South Florida Water Management District... I found their link, but I cant find where they have the different plots... like the xtrap,gldl,lbar,etc.... Im sorry to be so confusing!!

#13 Postby **Portastorm** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:50 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:This thing is developing in the SW corner of the NW Carrib. Based on this...it may actually still have a chance to be a western Gulf problem. JB is suppose to come out with a detailed post on this situation later today. Can't wait to see what he'll say.

Doubt it, extreme. This Western Sizzler ridge on top of us (Texas) doesn't seem to be going anywhere any time soon.

Derek Ortt · #14 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:52 am

GOM favorable? Not with the air being that dry. You will end up with descending motion, killing any convection unless that air modifies

boca · #15 Postby **boca** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:53 am

I think whatever develops the stronger it gets it will be steered by the upper levels not the lower levels. If it remains weak North Gulf coast westward to Texas ned to watch. If it ramps up Mobile east to Florida need to watch.

Extremeweatherguy · #16 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:54 am

boca wrote:I think whatever develops the stronger it gets it will be steered by the upper levels not the lower levels. If it remains weak North Gulf coast westward to Texas ned to watch. If it ramps up Mobile east to Florida need to watch.

Then why is the GFS saying that it will hit FL when it also has it as a 1008mb low?

#17 Postby **Stormcenter** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:58 am

Derek Ortt wrote:GOM favorable? Not with the air being that dry. You will end up with descending motion, killing any convection unless that air modifies

I wish we would had that type of air when Katrina and Rita hit the Gulf last season.

Tampa_God · #18 Postby **Tampa_God** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:58 am

Portastorm wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:This thing is developing in the SW corner of the NW Carrib. Based on this...it may actually still have a chance to be a western Gulf problem. JB is suppose to come out with a detailed post on this situation later today. Can't wait to see what he'll say.

Doubt it, extreme. This Western Sizzler ridge on top of us (Texas) doesn't seem to be going anywhere any time soon.

That's why I put my prediction for landfall between South Florida and AL/FL border. I got a campout all next week so I'll keep on watching this til Sunday and see if it should be cancled. Also got my Storm tracking map so hopefully I can get started on it.

Weather Channel is sometimes full of it.

#19 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 12:01 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:GOM favorable? Not with the air being that dry. You will end up with descending motion, killing any convection unless that air modifies

I think it will bring up moisture with it from the NW Caribbean into the GOM. It is sucking up so much moisture right now I don't think that dry air is going to kill it. Also as the next trough digs down the return flow will bring up some moisture.

#20 Postby **jasons2k** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 12:04 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:GOM favorable? Not with the air being that dry. You will end up with descending motion, killing any convection unless that air modifies

I wish we would had that type of air when Katrina and Rita hit the Gulf last season.

Dry air is what caused Rita to weaken significantly before landfall. As Stacy Stewart said, Rita was only "half a hurricane" but the time she made landfall.

Invest 90L,W,Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #7

Invest 90L,W,Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #7

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