Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #6

meteorologyman · #141 Postby **meteorologyman** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:04 am

Is there any warm eddies we should look out for????

#142 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:04 am

stormtruth wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
cheezywxman wrote:does anyone have an estimate of where the LLC of the system is?

There is no LLC. It's a wave.

Isn't it a developing LLC? Isn't calling it a wave just a way to be extra critical of someone who asked where the LLC is.

It MAY develop an LLC over the next few days, that's what the numerous threads are discussing - the POTENTIAL for it to develop an LLC. As of now, it's just an open wave with 10-15 kt winds in the region.

#143 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:05 am

meteorologyman wrote:Is there any warm eddies we should look out for????

Well I'm not sure if there are any guys named eddie down there in the Caribbean but, if there is how would we know if he was hot? j/k :lol:

Wnghs2007 · #144 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:05 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
cheezywxman wrote:does anyone have an estimate of where the LLC of the system is?

There is no LLC. It's a wave.
Then how come the NHC visible overlay indicates a 1006mb low?

Its a broad area of low pressure. That does not mean that there is an actual sustained low level circulation in the system currently. However, one may form over time.

HurricaneHunter914 · #145 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:06 am

wxman57 wrote:
stormtruth wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
cheezywxman wrote:does anyone have an estimate of where the LLC of the system is?

There is no LLC. It's a wave.

Isn't it a developing LLC? Isn't calling it a wave just a way to be extra critical of someone who asked where the LLC is.

It MAY develop an LLC over the next few days, that's what the numerous threads are discussing - the POTENTIAL for it to develop an LLC. As of now, it's just an open wave with 10-15 kt winds in the region.

The NRL-MRY said that this system has 25 kt winds.

#146 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:06 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
cheezywxman wrote:does anyone have an estimate of where the LLC of the system is?

There is no LLC. It's a wave.
Then how come the NHC visible overlay indicates a 1006mb low?

I have a low on our map, too, but it's just a broad area of lower pressure. No distinct LLC yet.

#147 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:07 am

Nothing Closed yet...

#148 Postby **Stormcenter** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:07 am

stormtruth wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
cheezywxman wrote:does anyone have an estimate of where the LLC of the system is?

There is no LLC. It's a wave.

Isn't it a developing LLC? Isn't calling it a wave just a way to be extra critical of someone who asked where the LLC is.

I like your post cheezywxman. :lol:

#149 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:07 am

POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 36 HOURS

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/dan ... testBW.gif

JUST A FACT:

The last time the Atlantic when back-to-back with storms in June was 1996-1997.

#150 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:08 am

SouthFloridawx wrote:Nothing Closed yet...

That's also 1 hour old.

shaggy · #151 Postby **shaggy** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:09 am

well i am certainly not a sat pic expert but by looking at the latest visibles this morning i see 2 areas that have a rotation to it!One is just SW of the caymen islands and the other near the coast of C america.Now i am just waking up to hear about this possible development and actually read it in my local NWS discussion.Which spin is the one they are watching because it looks like either could become the main low over time!?If the spin thats closer to the caymen takes over i wonder what that might do to any future movement of the system?

#152 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:09 am

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:
The NRL-MRY said that this system has 25 kt winds.

Surface observations and the current pressure gradient do not support 25 kt winds. Highest I see in the past 6 hours would be 15 kts, and that inclues the big squall right over Grand Cayman Island. They're only reporting 10-15 kts there.

HurricaneHunter914 · #153 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:11 am

Not only that the cone is showing that this system can hit anywhere from Texas all the Way to Florida.

#154 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:11 am

ncdowneast wrote:well i am certainly not a sat pic expert but by looking at the latest visibles this morning i see 2 areas that have a rotation to it!One is just SW of the caymen islands and the other near the coast of C america.Now i am just waking up to hear about this possible development and actually read it in my local NWS discussion.Which spin is the one they are watching because it looks like either could become the main low over time!?If the spin thats closer to the caymen takes over i wonder what that might do to any future movement of the system?

I see those two areas. The one by Cayman Islands appears to be in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere associated with a big squall area. Unfortunately, there are so many mid and high clouds that we can't see the low-level cumulus clouds to determine if/where a circulation might be forming.

#155 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:13 am

It does look like ther are two circulations battling for the one that will take it all - that one SW of the Cayman islands is looking interesting...

#156 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:14 am

12Z GFS shows the same....Florida Big Bend landfall.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

#157 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:15 am

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL902006) ON 20060609 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060609 1200 060610 0000 060610 1200 060611 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.0N 85.0W 19.0N 85.0W 20.7N 86.0W 23.0N 87.1W
BAMM 18.0N 85.0W 18.8N 85.7W 19.9N 87.2W 21.4N 88.8W
A98E 18.0N 85.0W 18.4N 84.0W 19.3N 84.0W 20.0N 84.6W
LBAR 18.0N 85.0W 18.7N 84.8W 20.3N 85.4W 22.3N 86.3W
SHIP 25KTS 34KTS 42KTS 48KTS
DSHP 25KTS 34KTS 42KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060611 1200 060612 1200 060613 1200 060614 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.3N 87.5W 28.8N 85.4W 30.9N 81.7W 34.8N 76.9W
BAMM 23.0N 90.1W 24.8N 90.9W 24.0N 90.4W 24.2N 88.9W
A98E 21.3N 85.3W 23.7N 85.9W 26.6N 84.1W 30.6N 79.4W
LBAR 24.4N 86.7W 27.5N 84.3W 28.8N 79.2W 33.0N 73.0W
SHIP 51KTS 57KTS 54KTS 44KTS
DSHP 40KTS 46KTS 43KTS 33KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.0N LONCUR = 85.0W DIRCUR = 85DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 18.0N LONM12 = 86.8W DIRM12 = 87DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 17.3N LONM24 = 88.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....

Thunder44 · #158 Postby **Thunder44** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:15 am

skysummit wrote:
SouthFloridawx wrote:Nothing Closed yet...

That's also 1 hour old.

More like four hours old. Look at the time stamp in the bottom.

southerngale · #159 Postby **southerngale** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:15 am

HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Not only that the cone is showing that this system can hit anywhere from Texas all the Way to Florida.

What cone?

#160 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Jun 09, 2006 11:16 am

southerngale wrote:
HurricaneHunter914 wrote:Not only that the cone is showing that this system can hit anywhere from Texas all the Way to Florida.

What cone?

not really a cone but a probability area of TS formation

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/dan ... testBW.gif

Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #6

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