TWO/TWD updates 90L

[Thunder44]

"A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM DURING THE
NEXT OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD"

They are missing "DAY"

[meteorologyman]

Question...If this system gets more organized and moves into the GOM, with sheer decreasing and decent SST what will prevent it from strengthening?

I am no expert but I'll give it a guess

1. the Jet stream will make the storm move somewhat fast, storms generally go slow when developing.

2. Dry air is present.

But that dry air is expected to decrease.

Yes I just now noticed that, I have a bad feeling that this storm is going to have a nasty surprise up it's sleeve

[meteorologyman]

Alright here is the conditions right now,
The Gulf States are going to be in mid 90's all weekend, so the gulf is probably warming, dry air is decreasing, mositure is increasing, sheer winds are dropping, developement is already occurring, this Low could be a name storm by tommorrow evening. the storm may enter the gulf, which could mean a 99.9% chance of landfalling storm if it does. SSTs are favorable.

[meteorologyman]

EVERYONE ON THE GULF COAST

IF YOU HAVE NOT PREPARED, OR IF YOU DO NOT KNOW THEAREA IN WHICH YOU ARE IN NOW IS THE TIME TO GET READY

[meteorologyman]

YOU MIGHT WANT TO LOOK AT THIS

http://wxmaps.org/pix/atlpot.png

[brunota2003]

YOU MIGHT WANT TO LOOK AT THIS

http://wxmaps.org/pix/atlpot.png

Remember though...that is only based on SST's, it doesn't include Dry Air, Wind Shear etc...so no need to majorly stir things up...

[meteorologyman]

you're right I appoligize got a little over on top of my head there

[brunota2003]

you're right I appoligize got a little over on top of my head there

its all good...I do find those maps interesting...however someone might take it the wrong way and then start the whole "OMG its going to bomb and come my way" thing...

[shaggy]

most models are showing a track that would cross florida and then ride up the east coast.One storm could possibly hit several areas that have the "highest threat" according to some top mets so that means that one system could make their numbers verify even tho it might be a weak and insignificant storm.Thats why i use "probability" numbers very loosely because they really dont mean much.


This sytem is going to beinteresting tho even if it doesn't develop it shows us how quickly the tropics can become active!

[HurricaneHunter914]

But if this thing does get into the Atlantic it will probably extratropical before it hits the East Coast.

[deltadog03]

models are useless right now

edit.....on tracking this invest that is

[cycloneye]

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS MOVED TO THE NE NOW COVERING ONLY THE
NE SECTOR. UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER
S MEXICO NWARD TO TEXAS. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING EWARD INTO
THE W GULF. ESSENTIALLY...THIS UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT PATTERN IS
GENERATING STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THE SFC...A WEAK DISSIPATING TROUGH LIES FROM LAKE
OKEECHOBEE FLORIDA SWWARD TO 24N87W. THIS TROUGH IS MARKED BY A
NARROW THIN BAND OF CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT. A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH
IS CENTERED IN THE NW GULF NEAR 27N95W. MAINLY FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF WITH LIGHT SFC WINDS. THE DRY
WEATHER IN THE REGION OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS MAY COME TO AN END
FOR A PORTION OF THE GULF THIS WEEKEND AS A SLOWLY DEVELOPING
SYSTEM IN THE NW CARIBBEAN MOVES NWARD DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE
INTO THE E/CENTRAL GULF. THIS SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO THE FIRST
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON IN THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN WEATHER INTEREST IN THIS AREA IS A 1006 MB LOW IN THE
NW CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 17N86W. THIS LOW SITS ON A SLOW
MOVING SFC TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM W CUBA TO HONDURAS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN
78W-87W. SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE BEEN IN THIS REGION FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK...BUT TODAY THERE IS MORE ORGANIZATION TO THE ACTIVITY.
THIS BROAD/ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
DEVELOPING WITH BUOY OBS REPORTING 15-20 KT WINDS AROUND THE LOW
CENTER. IN ADDITION...COMPUTER MODELS HAVE BECOME IN FAIR
AGREEMENT SLOWLY STRENGTHENING THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MIGRATES NWARD TOWARDS THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE
E CARIBBEAN...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE
GENERATED BY AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED NE OF PUERTO RICO. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE E CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND AS A CENTRAL
ATLANTIC SFC RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE AND THE UPPER HIGH NEARLY
STATIONARY. THE NW CARIBBEAN WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE AS THE
SFC TROUGH AND LOW MOVE NWD OR NNWARD THIS WEEKEND.

2 PM Discussion about the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean above.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Well, I'm sure going to be watching this thing carefully. Thanks for the frequent updates... it seems a lot of storms that DO form in June, this is the area in which they form most frequently.

A2K

[HurricaneHunter914]

Yup that is very true, except for Andrew which formed in the Atlantic.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Yup that is very true, except for Andrew which formed in the Atlantic.

Yes, but recall, Andrew was an August storm. I was referring to those that form during this time of year (June, early July)...

A2K

[HurricaneHunter914]

Woops, I don't know much about Andrew except that it "was" the most costliest hurricane ever.

[Audrey2Katrina]

Woops, I don't know much about Andrew except that it "was" the most costliest hurricane ever.

Until Katrina!

A2K

[Audrey2Katrina]

Anxious for the next TWO... although as some have said, it's still to early to call it.

A2K

[gulfcoastdave]

we can not say where and if this thing hits until it forms. Models can not handle the system correctly until the system forms.

look how the cone changed last year with katrina in just a matter of a day or two.

once we get to sunday , we will have a better idea on what lies ahead

[HURRICANELONNY]

That's the truth Dave. I think the center hasn't been initiated yet so how can the models know where it's going or forming. Looking at the vis. floater loop it looks like the center is around 17n 84w but that could be the MLC. Or it could be reforming or I don't have a clue. Anyways everyone be ready and prepared thid season.