Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #6

[whereverwx]

That's really interesting. I just looked at a visible loop. Did the "center" reform from where it was the other day?

[SouthFloridawx]

big 2-3 mb 24 hour pressure falls have occurred in the area... a broad center appears to be forming in the general area around 18n85w but it could form anywhere within 60 nm of there. from first glance appears to be a fl panhandle storm (maybe like arlene) but not too strong... shear gets strong in the northern gulf. we shall see though... appears td 1 will be there by the end of the day.

This is not a forecast... please refer to the NHC/TCP/NWS/NOAA for official information regarding any weather forecasts or planning.

I agree but, we must wait to see if the convection around this area persists for the rest of the day. If we see banding features and get reports from ships and bouys that the pressure is indeed falling and we have the wind reports then maybe by the end of today or tomorrow we MAY have our first TD. However until the models get a good fix on the exact location of the LLC I don't think we'll get an idea of consensus from them on track.

[CHRISTY]

i agree southflloridawx we have to see if the convection continues to persist during the day.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Don't freak out...but look at where the NHC is predicting this thing to go:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

[fwbbreeze]

3 more observations from the Mexican Coast and Belize....all showing North winds

Chetumal
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMCM.html

Cozumel
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MMCZ.html

Belize City
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MZBZ.html

fwbbreeze

[gatorcane]

latest infrared is showing some large convection starting to blow up to the SSE side of the LLC

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

[Extremeweatherguy]

I have a good feeling that TD1 is going to be here by evening. Also, since this is further east...my earlier TX prediction may not come to partition. Right now I am going to forecast Mobile, AL as where I think this ends up.

[CHRISTY]

this will all be about timeing...were is this thing gonna be when the trough comes down.to me it will eventually make a NE turn were who knows.

[gatorcane]

have a good feeling that TD1 is going to be here by evening. Also, since this is further east...my earlier TX prediction may not come to partition. Right now I am going to forecast Mobile, AL as where I think this ends up

What do you think about nearly all models curving it into the West coast of Florida?

[CHRISTY]

have a good feeling that TD1 is going to be here by evening. Also, since this is further east...my earlier TX prediction may not come to partition. Right now I am going to forecast Mobile, AL as where I think this ends up

What do you think about nearly all models curving it into the West coast of Florida?

boca to me thats in responce to a trough that is due to come down.

[Pearl River]

I hope it gets close enough to SE LA to bring us some much needed rain. BUT THATS ALL.

[Extremeweatherguy]

have a good feeling that TD1 is going to be here by evening. Also, since this is further east...my earlier TX prediction may not come to partition. Right now I am going to forecast Mobile, AL as where I think this ends up

What do you think about nearly all models curving it into the West coast of Florida?

I don't know. I have not looked at the models today. I just got onto storm2k for the first time. Do you have a link to all the model runs? I was basing my prediction on the NHC predicted path graphic.

[no advance]

I think a td is forming as we write. If it is moving it is moving very slowly. Have a nice afternoon everyone. Agree Cycl. eliminate some of these chit=chat post.

[skysummit]

Anyone take a look at the 12z NAM? I'm sort of confused about it. It looks like it loses the low....or sends it still toward Brownsville, however, all of the moisture goes north through the gulf. Is it finally trying to agree with the rest of the models?

12z NAM

[benny]

thoughts anybody about what the 11:00 AM NHC will say about this system???

the ole strongly worded outlook.. a tropical depression could form later today or tonight etc... if some sort of consolidation can occur i think TPC will consider advisories... right now it is a broad mess but all signs are for development at this point...

[mtm4319]

[Scorpion]

I think this is more of a Northern Gulf situation than Florida. The models always overestimate the troughs this time of year.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The big question after it forms will be about it's speed and the trof (and the strength of the trof). If this is a slow mover it may miss the trof and target the west or central gulf. If this moves more quickly, then the trof may allow for an eastern gulf threat.

[gatorcane]

I think this is more of a Northern Gulf situation than Florida. The models always overestimate the troughs this time of year.

I don't think so - the troughs have been very strong lately, so this one will be no different. Remember how strong the last one was last week?

[Noles2006]

I think we've got a real chance to see some weather from this one! I'd gladly take a weak-moderate TS!