Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #6

[PTrackerLA]

I really don't see this becoming much stronger than a weak TS. It should become a good rain maker for Florida or whatever it goes. Unfortunately it may limit our rain chances next week if it goes east of here and we could definately use the rain as well. Hopefully it spreads tropical moisture all over the gulf coast so we can finally start seeing our summer rains that have been absent so far this month.

[Stormcenter]

It is still over the Yucatan right now. I think development is about 24-36 hours away.

No it is not. It is off the Honduras coastline.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[gatorcane]

click NWS Fonts in that picture and you'll see where the Low is at. It's over water by at least a couple of 100 miles.

[Stormcenter]

I really don't see this becoming much stronger than a weak TS. It should become a good rain maker for Florida or whatever it goes. Unfortunately it may limit our rain chances next week if it goes east of here and we could definately use the rain as well. Hopefully it spreads tropical moisture all over the gulf coast so we can finally start seeing our summer rains that have been absent so far this month.

Too early to call but in my opinion a 50-60 TS is very possible.

[gatorcane]

anybody have recent buoy reports down there confirming a west wind below the LLC? The winds are probably starting to blow westerly along the northern Honduras coastline.

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like the center is trying to become organized around 17.8N 84.0W.

[benny]

big 2-3 mb 24 hour pressure falls have occurred in the area... a broad center appears to be forming in the general area around 18n85w but it could form anywhere within 60 nm of there. from first glance appears to be a fl panhandle storm (maybe like arlene) but not too strong... shear gets strong in the northern gulf. we shall see though... appears td 1 will be there by the end of the day.

[brunota2003]

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FLOW
BECOMES AMPLIFIED AGAIN WITH TROUGHS ALONG THE EAST AND WEST COASTS
AND A STRONG CENTRAL UPPER RIDGE. OF CONCERN IS THE MODEL FORECAST
OF A GOM TROPICAL SYSTEM. THE GFDL/CMC/AND GFS BRING A STRONG SYSTEM
ACROSS FL THEN ALONG/OFF THE NC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UKMET AND
NOGAPS LOSE THE SYSTEM AFTER DAY 3. OBVIOUSLY CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE
SOLN IS LOW THAT FAR OUT IN TIME...THEREFORE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
EXTENDED GRIDS WILL BE MADE WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE.

Those are some serious words there...Even my mets here in NC are a little worried about the system ATTM...I will be watching this if my mets are watching this...However, as stated, no adjustments to the grids as this has not developed yet nor started to make its move toward anyone...

[fwbbreeze]

anybody have recent buoy reports down there confirming a west wind below the LLC? The winds are probably starting to blow westerly along the northern Honduras coastline.

obs from the north of the center
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

obs from the south of the center
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MHRO.html

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MHLC.html

fwbbreeze

[benny]

anybody have recent buoy reports down there confirming a west wind below the LLC? The winds are probably starting to blow westerly along the northern Honduras coastline.

roatan is reporting wnw winds of 11 kt.

[whereverwx]

That's a pretty impressive burst of convection. I'm sure there are some heavy squalls in it.

[jdray]

anybody have recent buoy reports down there confirming a west wind below the LLC? The winds are probably starting to blow westerly along the northern Honduras coastline.

Only a few bouys near that area to begin with.

[mtm4319]

anybody have recent buoy reports down there confirming a west wind below the LLC? The winds are probably starting to blow westerly along the northern Honduras coastline.

The only buoys I can find in the western Caribbean are 42056 (ENE wind) and 42057 (which drezee reported was a SW wind).

[gatorcane]

thanks guys the buoys south of the LLC are indeed showing West winds with only gusts to 15K

[skysummit]

Shear is still decreasing in the area.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

[storm4u]

From nws taunton mass!! I guess its something to watch up here. Thats all we would need is more rain some places have had over 24 inches in the last month and if we were to get rain from this we would have a very serious problem up here!


LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE LONG TERM DWINDLES AS MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE
MODEL SUITE SOLUTIONS SHOWING MORE SPREAD AS TIME GOES ON. EARLY IN
THIS PERIOD...APPEARS THAT THE GFS IS DOING FAIRLY WELL...BUT BEGINS
TO DIVERGE FROM THE SUITE BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF
BIG QUESTIONS CROP UP DURING THE PERIOD...ONE DURING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...THEN THE SECOND POTENTIALLY MORE SERIOUS ONE
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

BACK EDGE OF SHOWERS FROM THE LATEST LOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WILL SWING NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY EVENING...BUT WILL HANG ON TO
CHANCE POPS TO START OFF. ONCE THIS CLEARS...LOW BECOMES ABSORBED
BY ANOTHER LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...KEEPING THE
REGION IN A CYCLONIC FLOW THOUGH IT DOES TEND TO DRY OUT LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR THE LATTER PART
OF SUNDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS DO SHOW A PRETTY POTENT SHORT WAVE
ROTATING SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE SUNDAY
MORNING...CROSSING INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS BY AFTERNOON. BIG
QUESTION WILL BE THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT ROTATES THROUGH.
RIGHT NOW...APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN EAST OF NORTHERN CONNECTICUT INTO WESTERN WORCESTER
COUNTY...THOUGH WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE FOR NOW. THE
BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN AREAS FROM ESSEX
COUNTY THROUGH TO THE CAPE LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. AS THE MAIN CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SPINS SLOWLY
EAST...THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST RATHER QUICKLY...WITH
PRECIP ENDING BY MIDNIGHT OR SO.

CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY HEADS TOWARD PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND DURING MONDAY...
WITH THE REGION FINALLY SHIFTING INTO A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. STILL
A FEW WEAK SHORT WAVES THAT MAY ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW...ONE
NAMELY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NOT MUCH SUPPORT OR MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH AT THIS POINT SO KEPT A DRY FORECAST GOING
NEXT QUESTION BEGINS TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...THEN WORKS NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY
AROUND TUESDAY MORNING. SEVERAL MEMBERS OF THE MODEL SUITE ARE NOW
PICKING UP ON THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE QUESTION LIES AS TO ITS MOVEMENT
UP THE COAST AROUND THE WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. MOST DO KEEP THE LOW
OFF THE COAST SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET...BUT BEING SO FAR OUT...NOT A
WHOLE LOT OF CONFIDENCE OF THIS YET. THE NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN ALSO
CARRIES A LOW UP THE COAST...BUT A MORE MODEST ONE THAN SOME OF THE
OTHER MEMBERS SOLUTIONS.

[mtm4319]

[Thunder44]

Both buoys have changed the wind direction over the last couple hours somewhat to reflect more a tighting and closed area of low pressure than a broad one. If this continues today we will probably have a TD either tonight or tomorrow morning.

[gatorcane]

thoughts anybody about what the 11:00 AM NHC will say about this system???

[fwbbreeze]

2 of the obs I posted were from the coast of Honduras. Both are showing a west wind of some type.

fwbbreeze