Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #6

[cycloneye]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=85395



Thread #1

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=85410



Thread #2

http://storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=85418



Thread #3

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=85423



Thread #4

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 31&start=0



Thread #5

[gatorcane]

Yes I have family in the Tampa area and unlike South Florida it has been bone dry up there. They could use the rain!!!

But not the wind

[hriverajr]

Question... What is the usual steering levels for tropical systems. 500mb or 300mb?

[CHRISTY]

Yes I have family in the Tampa area and unlike South Florida it has been bone dry up there. They could use the rain!!!

But not the wind

boca this possibility does seem possible to me.....it will all depend on how strong the trough ends up being.also will models continue shifting east something to watch maybe?

[gatorcane]

maybe the models will shift back west for a FL panhandle or even a NOLA hit?

[rockyman]

Hrive...it depends on the strength of the system. Here's a website that shows the current and past steering flows...with a guide at the top left corner to show you the pressure of the storm for each level:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

[gtalum]

If South Florida sees winds of 50-74mph in a strong TS it would be very BAD due to Wilma and Katrina damage - along with Frances and Jeanne. Fortunately the West coast of Florida from Sarasota north has been spared the wrath of 2004-2005 so actually a weak TS would be welcomed.

Just hope it doesn't reach hurricane strenght with GOM water temps in the mid 80s

It's not going to reach 50-74 mph. People are just getting worked up because it's the first system of the year.

You're talking a weak TS at most, with lots of rain. I hope it comes up this way and leaves y'all alone though. My pond is bone dry and has been for weeks.

[wxman57]

This is the second time a thread was locked as I was typing a message. The 10-page rule has to go! Imagine that the entire first page of forum listings will be taken up by 10-page groupings of discussions about a single storm when we get some real action.

This map pretty much captures the current upper-level wind flow across the Gulf/Caribbean. Note the jet core coming off Texas, heading to the northern Yucatan, then ripping ENE-NE across western Cuba and south Florida. Very unfavoral environment for develpment today. WV loops indicate that trof digging southward into the southern Gulf over the next 24 hours. That could drive those storms over the northern Caribbean northeastward across Cuba.

And if anything moves northward into the southern Gulf over the next few days, there isn't much chance of significant strengthening.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/alberto2.gif

[skysummit]

Question... What is the usual steering levels for tropical systems. 500mb or 300mb?

Actually for a weak system like this, I believe it's 700 - 850mb. (someone correct me if I'm wrong)
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dlm1.GIF

[gatorcane]

wxman great graphic.

I think the cloud tops from these big thunderstorms will start moving over South Florida later today and eventually covering the peninsula. What do you think?

[HollynLA]

There are alot of places on the Gulf coast and into FL that need rain desperately. I think as long as this system stays a TD or weak TS, it will be welcomed by most. Calm down people, this will not be a major event, we are just excited to track the first system.

[gatorcane]

There are alot of places on the Gulf coast and into FL that need rain desperately. I think as long as this system stays a TD or weak TS, it will be welcomed by most. Calm down people, this will not be a major event, we are just excited to track the first system

Have you seen the tops of the thunderstorms in the infrared??? That is one huge system down there - not organized but definitely scary looking. I'm not so sure it won't get to hurricane status - just needs those UL winds to die off some and watch out.

[drezee]

Buoy 42057 has switched to true SW winds at 15 knts!

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057

It will not be long before they declare it a TD.

[wzrgirl1]

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/atl_sat.gif

[Stormcenter]

This is the second time a thread was locked as I was typing a message. The 10-page rule has to go! Imagine that the entire first page of forum listings will be taken up by 10-page groupings of discussions about a single storm when we get some real action.

This map pretty much captures the current upper-level wind flow across the Gulf/Caribbean. Note the jet core coming off Texas, heading to the northern Yucatan, then ripping ENE-NE across western Cuba and south Florida. Very unfavoral environment for develpment today. WV loops indicate that trof digging southward into the southern Gulf over the next 24 hours. That could drive those storms over the northern Caribbean northeastward across Cuba.

And if anything moves northward into the southern Gulf over the next few days, there isn't much chance of significant strengthening.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/alberto2.gif

Good news for the folks leaving along the Gulf coast. It's too early in the season for this foolishness.

[cycloneye]

This is the second time a thread was locked as I was typing a message. The 10-page rule has to go! Imagine that the entire first page of forum listings will be taken up by 10-page groupings of discussions about a single storm when we get some real action.

I agree with you that this 10 page rule is not the best thing.However due to what mf_dolpiin (Administrator) said about the bandwitch of the site this measure has to be imposed,but this will not be permanent but a temporary timeperiod.

[gatorcane]

Buoy 42057 has switched to true SW winds at 15 knts!

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057

It will not be long before they declare it a TD.

here we go folks - you have to admit, this system has fought off hostile conditions very nicely, now it is just waiting for that window of opportunity and it has a small one now I think.

[gatorcane]

how about the size of our developing system? It is enormous!!!

[jdray]

need the rain, need the rain, need the rain.

Yes Im -removed- for rain.

[gtalum]

boca_chris, it's ime to take a deep breath dude.... You gotta pace yourself, it's a long season!


ps I'm just teasing.