Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #5

[Rainband]

has anybody even prepared along the west coast of Florida?

For what rain??? This really won't amount to much more than that, if anything.

[gatorcane]

Mia discussion is showing a complete lack of any Bermuda High Feature - current winds around South Florida are light and variable. This future storm has Eastern GOM/ West Coast of Florida (maybe panhandle) or big bend of Florida written all over it.

000
FXUS62 KMFL 091354
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
954 AM EDT FRI JUN 9 2006

.UPDATE...NO REAL MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED. AFTER YESTERDAY`S BUST,
THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS AGO SO DO NOT
FEEL A NEED TO MAKE ANY NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS OTHER THAN TO
REALIGN SCT POPS. LOOKED AS IF WE COULD GET SOME SVR TSRA
YESTERDYA BUT NOTHING EVER REALLY MATERIALIZED ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST COAST METRO AREA. THE WRF MODEL HANDLED THURSDAY`S CONVECTION
QUITE WELL AND WILL NOT VEER TOO FAR AWAY FROM TODAY`S FORECAST.
THE ONLY CHANGE TO THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING IS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS A TAD DEEPER SO PWAT IS NOW AT 1.87 INCHES. THE OTHER
DIFFERENCE IS THE CAP AT ABOUT 14K (WHICH WAS ABOUT 1000 FEET LESS
YESTERDAY) IS A LITTLE STRONGER TODAY. SO IF POSSIBLE CAP WAS
CULPRIT TO INHIBITION ON DEVELOPMENT FOR THURSDAY, IT SHOULD AGAIN
STRUGGLE TODAY. ANOTHER SUBTLE CHANGE IS THE WIND PATTERN WHEREAS
24 HOURS AGO THE STEERING FLOW WAS 240 AT 5KT, TODAY IS 230 AT 4KT
BUT IF YOU LOOK AT THE ENVIRONMENT THAT IS A STRETCH. THE STORMS
DO NOT SEEM LIKE THEY WILL MOVE MUCH AT ALL. MARINE FORECAST LOOKS
TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

[TampaFl]

FXUS62 KTAE 091301
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
900 AM EDT FRI JUN 9 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH TROUGHS OVER THE EAST AND WEST
COASTS. UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY OVER THE WEEKEND AS
H5 SHORTWAVE MOVES EWD INTO THE PLAINS. THUS STRONG CENTRAL U.S.
RIDGE FLATTENS (BECOMES ELONGATED FROM EAST TO WEST) OVER THE
SOUTHERN STATES AND ANY ACTIVE WX TO REMAIN IN THE NRN STREAM. .
LOCALLY...UPPER SHORT WAVE AND VORT LOBE EXITED EWD FROM FLA INTO
ATLC DURING PRE-DAWN HOURS. THIS TRANSLATES TO SINKING NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT.

12Z UTC KTAE SOUNDING WAS QUITE DRY AND WARM IN THE MID TROPOSPHERE.
REGIONAL SOUNDINGS REFLECT DRY AIRMASS ESPECIALLY ABOVE LOWEST
LEVELS. I.E. TAE 1.44 PWAT WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE H75...BMX 0.48
PWAT AND JAN 1.06 PWAT BUT VERY DRY ABOVE H8. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
OVER SD TO DRIFT ESE ALONG QSTNRY FRONT LOCATED FROM NRN/CNTRL
PLAINS THRU MS VALLEY. THIS WILL DROP FRONT SSW INTO ERN WY-NEB
PANHANDLE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS AND A
WEAK TROUGH ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ALONG THE CAROLINA
COASTS.

MOST LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. ACTUALLY...ITS CURRENTLY
A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND DEEP MOIST CONVECTION
THAT COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
INTERACTION OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
SYSTEM ADVANCES NORTHWESTWARD THEN TURNS GRADUALLY TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE MOVING ACROSS THE GULF. MOST MODELS
SHOW AN INCREASE IN LOCAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING ON SUNDAY AND
A DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE ARRIVING BY EARLY MONDAY. STILL...THERE
ARE LARGE TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES AND THE FACT THAT
DEVELOPMENT HAS YET TO OCCUR ALL MAKES IT VERY DIFFICULT TO
ACCURATELY FORECAST SYSTEM'S FUTURE.

&&

[CHRISTY]

I say a turn to the ENE may also be possible.

[gtalum]

Florida cannot afford another hit even from a TS

What are you talking about? We need the rain. And that's about all this systemtorm will bring.

[wxman57]

Wxman...those are the 00z plots. Time for a new graphic!

Still don't have anything new since 00Z except for the BAM models. And the BAMS didn't appear to come in.

...but your BAMM and BAMD are old on that graphic.

Yeah, they came in about 2 minutes after I snapped the picture.

[gatorcane]

I say a turn to the ENE may also be possible.

hmmmmmm.... don't think an ENE turn...

I think South Florida will be spared here but certainly being on the East side of this system should see some effects - early to say though.

Why do you say this Christy?

[wzrgirl1]

yes but there are still people with blue tarps on.........loose tiles, etc. and even a mild tropical storm would reek havoc in some areas

[gatorcane]

If South Florida sees winds of 50-74mph in a strong TS it would be very BAD due to Wilma and Katrina damage - along with Frances and Jeanne. Fortunately the West coast of Florida from Sarasota north has been spared the wrath of 2004-2005 so actually a weak TS would be welcomed.

Just hope it doesn't reach hurricane strenght with GOM water temps in the mid 80s

[seaswing]

Oh.....we need rain up here!!!! I wouldn't mind seeing this thing move north... today 94 and dry tomorrow 96 and continued dry....