Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #5

[Thunder44]

We need some ship reports from this area.

At 12z or 8am, we should be getting some.

[drezee]

The first two visibles of the N half of the system look REALLY intriguing. I need about 3 more frames before the S half is visible (due ot the angle of the sun during June). If I see what I think I see, then the center is off shore of the Yucatan and North of Honduras...I need more visibles!!!!

[skysummit]

The first two visibles of the N half of the system look REALLY intriguing. I need about 3 more frames before the S half is visible (due ot the angle of the sun during June). If I see what I think I see, then the center is off shore of the Yucatan and North of Honduras...I need more visibles!!!!

You're seeing the same thing I'm seeing. I see the center now over water. I believe it "re-arranged" itself in a more comfortable area The NHC seems to think the same also since they moved there "L" on the satellite loops out over water.

[TampaFl]

Nice site here for current conditions:


http://oceanweather.com/data/Caribbean-Sea/marineloop.html


Robert

[rockyman]

8am TWD says center's at 18/86

[gatorcane]

just signing in all. Wow look at the convection blow up and the cold cloud tops!!!

[rockyman]

Latest "consensus forecast"---3rd in a row to show the Florida Panhandle:

[caneman]

That is actually the Big Bend area

[gulfcoastdave]

Latest "consensus forecast"---3rd in a row to show the Florida Panhandle:

this may have been posted already this AM but I am heading to work and do not have time to look at all of the threads This is from the national weather service office out of mobile

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THERE IS MUCH TO BE
CONCERNED ABOUT DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AFTER MULTIPLE MODEL
RUNS SHOWING DEVELOPMENT IN EITHER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN OR AT LEAST
THE SOUTHERN GULF...NOW JUST ABOUT ALL LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT ON WHAT WE`LL CALL A "LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM" DEVELOPING IN
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHICH ADVANCES NORTHWESTWARD THEN TURNS
GRADUALLY TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF. THERE ARE LARGE TIMING AND MOVEMENT DIFFERENCES
AND THE FACT THAT DEVELOPMENT HAS YET TO OCCUR ALL MAKES IT VERY
DIFFICULT TO ANSWER CRITICAL QUESTIONS LIKE WHERE AND WHEN. WITH
THIS ISSUANCE...HAVE STAYED WITH SMALL POPS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR CHANCE POPS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE
ENTIRE GULF COAST WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. /29

[gatorcane]

any updates over the night. What about tracks? Florida? Western GOM?

[Rainband]

The first two visibles of the N half of the system look REALLY intriguing. I need about 3 more frames before the S half is visible (due ot the angle of the sun during June). If I see what I think I see, then the center is off shore of the Yucatan and North of Honduras...I need more visibles!!!!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

1006 MB low east of the Yucatan

[gatorcane]

all I don't have a good feeling about this one....the convection is very impressive and once those winds relax the SSTs are plenty warm enough....

[gatorcane]

I also don't think a low is over the Yucatan anymore as the energy is nearly all over water - I will pay close attention to the visibles today to identify any reforming of a low in the NW Caribbean north of Honduras or E of the Yucatan.

Should they send out a Recon for this investigation also?

[gatorcane]

GFS puts it just north of Tampa, Florida in 108 hours

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=108hr

BTW - check out the huge High spanning the entire N Atlantic in that image. You know it is Hurricane Season now when you see that!!!

[skysummit]

I also don't think a low is over the Yucatan anymore as the energy is nearly all over water - I will pay close attention to the visibles today to identify any reforming of a low in the NW Caribbean north of Honduras or E of the Yucatan.

Should they send out a Recon for this investigation also?

Boca...they've already re-located the low off the coast of the Yucatan.

[gatorcane]

Boca...they've already re-located the low off the coast of the Yucatan

.

Thanks - what do you think on the GFS calling for a West Coast of Florida or panhandle hit now?

[HURAKAN]

Any ship reports from the area?

[cycloneye]

Now the next thing that we have to wait for is a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement from NHC,however the timing of that product being issued depends on if the system gets better organized.Although there haved been STDT'S in past years that haved been issued alerting for flooding problems in for example Haiti and CentralAmerica.

[wxman57]

I also don't think a low is over the Yucatan anymore as the energy is nearly all over water - I will pay close attention to the visibles today to identify any reforming of a low in the NW Caribbean north of Honduras or E of the Yucatan.

Should they send out a Recon for this investigation also?

Observations stil show 1004.5 mb pressure on the coast of Yucatan and about 1011 mb in the NE Caribbean. It's interesting to watch the models now focusing on the main area of thunderstorms and it's interaction with a sharp trof in the eastern Gulf. As I look at the GFS, I see it moving the tstms northward into the trof/frontal bounrary into an area of 50-60 kt southwest winds aloft then zipping it NE to Florida. Such an upper-level wind flow would not be conducive to development of a tropical system, though we could see a sheared, comma-shaped low form in such shear. It would be more of a rain-producer than a wind threat.

One other factor is the tropical wave that's approaching Nicaragua this morning. It's likely responsible for the flare-up in storms over the NE Caribbean now. But it'll be gone in another 24 hours.

I think this system will make landfall somewhere between the southern BoC and Maine. At least, if it goes N-NE it won't have a favorable environment to intensify.

[gatorcane]

Observations stil show 1004.5 mb pressure on the coast of Yucatan and about 1011 mb in the NE Caribbean. It's interesting to watch the models now focusing on the main area of thunderstorms and it's interaction with a sharp trof in the eastern Gulf. As I look at the GFS, I see it moving the tstms northward into the trof/frontal bounrary into an area of 50-60 kt southwest winds aloft then zipping it NE to Florida. Such an upper-level wind flow would not be conducive to development of a tropical system, though we could see a sheared, comma-shaped low form in such shear. It would be more of a rain-producer than a wind threat.

One other factor is the tropical wave that's approaching Nicaragua this morning. It's likely responsible for the flare-up in storms over the NE Caribbean now. But it'll be gone in another 24 hours.

I think this system will make landfall somewhere between the southern BoC and Maine. At least, if it goes N-NE it won't have a favorable environment to intensify

Thanks WxMan57 - I always enjoy reading your professional analysis - what chances are you giving this system to develop into Alberto at this time?
.