Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #5

[Ivan14]

Yup that is what I meant. I need some more Red Bull it is getting to late.

[P.K.]

Here is the latest from the last TWD, the next TWO should be out within the hour though.

AXNT20 KNHC 090525
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUN 09 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA ALONG 17N87W ENE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN INTO THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR W CUBA/WINDWARD PASSAGE. AN UPPER TROUGH
THAT STRETCHES ACROSS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE FROM THE W THROUGH THE LESSER
ANTILLES NEAR 13N61W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST NEAR 10N68W.
AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W TO A 1008 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE
NEAR 18N87W. THIS SETUP IS CONTINUING TO GIVE THE E CARIBBEAN
DRY AIR AND FAIR SKIES WHILE THE W CARIBBEAN IS UNDER ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION COVER THE AREA WITHIN 150/200 NM OF LINE FROM
HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N79W.

[P.K.]

WHXX04 KWBC 090525
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 90L

INITIAL TIME 0Z JUN 9

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 17.8 87.9 360./ 4.1
6 17.5 87.3 115./ 6.1
12 16.9 87.7 211./ 8.0
18 16.9 87.2 86./ 5.0
24 16.9 86.2 92./ 9.4

STORM DISSIPATED AT 24 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

[P.K.]

ABNT20 KNHC 090857
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT FRI JUN 09 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CONTINUES FROM CENTRAL AMERICA
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND PORTIONS
OF CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COVERING EASTERN YUCATAN AND THE GULF
OF HONDURAS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM LAND.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA

[Ivan14]

So we could have TD 1 today.

[mobilebay]

So we could have TD 1 today.

They sure are getting more bullish with each TWO!

[Thunder44]

Pressures are falling rapidly now at bouy 42056. It reported sustained 1-minute winds of 26kts, in the past hour which is about 30mph. Winds are coming out of the east so any low pressure area would be probably to the south of that location.

Bouy 42057 has similar pressure falls and winds too. Winds have been coming out of the SSE there so low pressure is probably under western edge of deep convection or just to the west. It doesn't look like it's a closed surface circulation yet. But we may have development by tonight or tomorrow if the organzition trend continues.


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057

[Ivan14]

All I can say is .

[drezee]

This is really disorganized unless the center reformed to the east. The pressure falls are a good sign.

NHC 72 forescast of New Orleans Threat?

[wxman57]

So we could have TD 1 today.

It's just a wave axis. This system is still days away from becoming a TD, if ever.

[drezee]

AT THE
SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF W CUBA NEAR
22N84W TO A STRENGTHENING 1008 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF BELIZE
NEAR 18N86W. THIS SETUP IS CONTINUING TO GIVE THE E CARIBBEAN
DRY AIR AND FAIR SKIES WHILE THE W CARIBBEAN IS UNDER ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
COVER THE AREA WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR
15N86W TO CUBA NEAR 22N80W. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED AND DRIFT N INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

[CHRISTY]

North movement.....interesting.

[skysummit]

So we could have TD 1 today.

It's just a wave axis. This system is still days away from becoming a TD, if ever.

There are a lot of cold cloud tops east of where the current broad LLC is. Buoys in the area are showing pressure falls. Wxman57, do you believe it's possible for a new LLC to form later today under this convection...if the convection persists?

[Thunder44]

I think if there is an area of low pressure, it's very broad and it's centered near 18N 85W where the lowest pressures seem to be coming from and from looking at IR-2 imagery shows some low-level rotation around there.

[skysummit]

Thunder, I'm thinking about agreeing with you I also see a new rotation.

[HURAKAN]

We need some ship reports from this area.

[ronjon]

Looks like the 00Z NOGAPs and 06Z UKMET are now coming into line with the GFS, GFDL, and CMC models by taking the low slowly N-NW off the north coast of the Yucatan and turning it NE into the FL panhandle or big bend region. The NOGAPs maintains a very weak system. The UKMET run I could only get through 48 hrs but its showing a low in the south-central GOM like the other models. The good news is that all the models are showing a fairly weak system at TD or TS status. Looks like this may just be a good rain maker.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... hour=048hr

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... =Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[SouthFloridawx]

Thunder, I'm thinking about agreeing with you I also see a new rotation.

If you check the floater on the nhc's site and then click on NWS fronts you'll see they repositioned the low... not sure if it is quite accurate as those graphics can be old but, it makes sense where it is.

[skysummit]

We need some ship reports from this area.

Yes we do. Not much in the way of buoy information. Here are the 10z plots.

[skysummit]

Thunder, I'm thinking about agreeing with you I also see a new rotation.

If you check the floater on the nhc's site and then click on NWS fronts you'll see they repositioned the low... not sure if it is quite accurate as those graphics can be old but, it makes sense where it is.

They sure have. I would've put their pretty little "L" graphic a tad more to the east, but at least they finally moved it.