Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #5

[HurricaneHunter914]

Then where do you think its going then?

[Audrey2Katrina]

For my part, and I am by no means an authority; I feel this, whether it becomes Alberto or not (IMO the latter) is going to wind up moving over and into Mexico..

A2K.

[HurricaneHunter914]

It just depends I guess.

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

You guys sure the center is over Belize cause there is alot of convection over Belize right now.

yes, it is. Unless the NHC is lying.

[HurricaneHunter914]

No I doubt they would mislead a bunch of defenseless people like us.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here are some Spaghetti models for 90L..

All those models that show it going into FL (except the GFS) are not typically known as being the "best" models in predicting these type of systems, and I would just completely discount the LBAR (which is nearly always wrong). I like the BAMM track the best right now.

ALSO: is the CMC on drugs? It looks like it takes the system into a washing machine just east of the Yucatan. The NOGAPS also does the same thing.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I thought the GFS was a trusted model?

[Extremeweatherguy]

I thought the GFS was a trusted model?

that is why I said "(except the GFS)". The one problem about the GFS right now is where it initializes the low. Currently, the invest is a completely different low (in a different location) than what the GFS is portraying.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Woops I usually ignore the parenthesis.

[goxweather]

The Canadian does not do a good job with latent heat release and creates its own anticyclone aloft, even in heavily sheared environments...so you got to watch out for that.

[spinfan4eva]

Tropical waves were at 21W, 53W, 65W & 77W, all showing no signs of development at this time.

Area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean has increased as upper level shear has decreased and thus been classified as invest 90L by the Navy. Ship reports and buoys in this area are showing pressure falls. At one point today a ship was reporting a pressure down to 1005 millibars just off the coast of Belize. Organization is currently being kept in check by interaction with the land areas but the disturbance is expected to move north or northwestward over the next couple of days into a more favorable environment for development. Most reliable models now show significant development.

If development occurs, there are several possibilities as far as who will be affected. The GFS, Canadian as well as the GFDL hurricane model shows a strong tropical storm/minor hurricane approaching the Florida panhandle in about 4 days. The UKMET, and NOGAPS show a much weaker system moving West-northwestward into México. All models are very unreliable considering there is no true organized system to latch on to at initialization time of the models. These models will get a much better handle on what's going on if/when there is a definite system.

Latest from the National Hurricane Center as of this update.......

SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND PORTIONS OF CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS.
THIS ACTIVITY IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR EASTERN YUCATAN. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
AT THIS TIME...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT...IF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES AWAY FROM LAND WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.



**Update, waiting up for more models and the GFS and Canadian are in for 00Z Friday--All remains the same TC for Fla Panhandle--Of course, still no system for model initialization. UKMET coming in--dissipating TC for Texas.... Off to bed now---stay tuned!!


Elsewhere and otherwise, no tropical storm activity is expected in the Atlantic basin for the next few days.

[spinfan4eva]

The Canadian does not do a good job with latent heat release and creates its own anticyclone aloft, even in heavily sheared environments...so you got to watch out for that.

Yes, but candian has been most right thusfar correct?

[HurricaneHunter914]

Tropical waves were at 21W, 53W, 65W & 77W, all showing no signs of development at this time.

Area of disturbed weather in the western Caribbean has increased as upper level shear has decreased and thus been classified as invest 90L by the Navy. Ship reports and buoys in this area are showing pressure falls. At one point today a ship was reporting a pressure down to 1005 millibars just off the coast of Belize. Organization is currently being kept in check by interaction with the land areas but the disturbance is expected to move north or northwestward over the next couple of days into a more favorable environment for development. Most reliable models now show significant development.

If development occurs, there are several possibilities as far as who will be affected. The GFS, Canadian as well as the GFDL hurricane model shows a strong tropical storm/minor hurricane approaching the Florida panhandle in about 4 days. The UKMET, and NOGAPS show a much weaker system moving West-northwestward into México. All models are very unreliable considering there is no true organized system to latch on to at initialization time of the models. These models will get a much better handle on what's going on if/when there is a definite system.

Latest from the National Hurricane Center as of this update.......

SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND PORTIONS OF CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS.
THIS ACTIVITY IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR EASTERN YUCATAN. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
AT THIS TIME...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT...IF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES AWAY FROM LAND WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.



**Update, waiting up for more models and the GFS and Canadian are in for 00Z Friday--All remains the same TC for Fla Panhandle--Of course, still no system for model initialization. UKMET coming in--dissipating TC for Texas.... Off to bed now---stay tuned!!


Elsewhere and otherwise, no tropical storm activity is expected in the Atlantic basin for the next few days.

Interesting. Looks like we could have Alberto before the 3rd week of June ends.

[goxweather]

The Canadian does not do a good job with latent heat release and creates its own anticyclone aloft, even in heavily sheared environments...so you got to watch out for that.

Yes, but candian has been most right thusfar correct?

I wouldn't say that the Canadian as been the best model. The model had a hurricane going straight for NOLA two days ago, and has been all over the GOM ever since. It was one of the first models to develop "something."

[Extremeweatherguy]

The Canadian does not do a good job with latent heat release and creates its own anticyclone aloft, even in heavily sheared environments...so you got to watch out for that.

Yes, but candian has been most right thusfar correct?

I wouldn't say that the Canadian as been the best model. The model had a hurricane going straight for NOLA two days ago, and has been all over the GOM ever since. It was one of the first models to develop "something."

yeah, the Canadian has been horrible. Plus, those storms that were suppose to hit N.O. were coming from the eastern pacific; not the Caribbean.

[Stormcenter]

I thought the GFS was a trusted model?

To some it is to others it's not. If you ask someone at the National Hurricane Center then it is.

[curtadams]

The Canadian does not do a good job with latent heat release and creates its own anticyclone aloft, even in heavily sheared environments...so you got to watch out for that.

Yes, but candian has been most right thusfar correct?

Not really. It and the new NAM predicted a system in this mess first but they both said it should already be a TS by now. This kind of moderate-shear environment is precisely where the Canadian is normally at its worst. Most right in seeing potential but no more.

In general none of the models mean anything yet anyway. They are all predicated on having a system already there, and we don't. Cyclogenesis is a harder problem which the numerical models can't do well even under good circumstances. Worse, the current environment is about as difficult a cyclogenesis problem as you're going to see (a large area of disturbed weather with weak steering interacting with both land and variable moderate shear).

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn.jpg

Convection looks really deep right now.

[Ivan14]

The Canadian does not do a good job with latent heat release and creates its own anticyclone aloft, even in heavily sheared environments...so you got to watch out for that.

Yes, but candian has been most right thusfar correct?

Not really. It and the new NAM predicted a system in this mess first but they both said it should already be a TS by now. This kind of moderate-shear environment is precisely where the Canadian is normally at its worst. Most right in seeing potential but no more.

In general none of the models mean anything yet anyway. They are all predicated on having a system already there, and we don't. Cyclogenesis is a harder problem which the numerical models can't do well even under good circumstances. Worse, the current environment is about as difficult a cyclogenesis problem as you're going to see (a large area of disturbed weather with weak steering interacting with both land and variable moderate shear).

Isn't shear supposed to relax over the weak end? And if there is low sheer in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend Cyclogenesis is very possible. IMHO we will see Alberta early next week.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I think you mean "AlbertO".