Invest 90L,W.Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #4

[duris]

Luckily most of the city is still deserted after Katrina hit.

Guess it depends on how you define "most" and deserted. Latest numbers suggest population is 221,000, and that probably doesn't include the 40-100,000 immigrants our US attorney says are in town. And many of the areas that weren't "deserted", particularly suburbs, have more than the usual population. I'm not suggesting this thing will develop or come here, but there are enough people and occupied places here that it would still matter. Good news is my downstairs floor is still dirt, and there are no walls, so if we have problems, now would be the time. And I don't like the FEMA trailer in my front yard anyway.

[Extremeweatherguy]

00Z NAM at hour 60 >>> 1004mb low (probable TD or TS) in western Gulf.

[dixiebreeze]

Convection really intensifying now:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I am not about to try to speculate on where this "potential system" will go in 4-6 days, but one thing I will join the argument on is this trough coming down. We here in LA have been hot and dry for weeks and supposed to be for the next week. We are into the second week of June and models always seem to over-play these summer time troughs dropping down into the gulf states and making there way all the way down to the coast, especially a week away. It is something we have to wait and see and watch for the trends.

[skysummit]

Convection really intensifying now:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

That's still well east of the where the supposedly "center" is.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I can't even point out where the center really is.

[BigA]

Im not sure where the center is; there probably really isnt a real true center at this point, with the low bing so broad, but it wouldnt be impossible for an actual center to form where the convection is, but there is no reason to expect that this will happen imminently.

[CHRISTY]

[george_r_1961]

Convection really intensifying now:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

That's still well east of the where the supposedly "center" is.

Another indication that any development will be slow. The "center" (for lack of a better word) has got to get over water and the convection organized around it.

And none of the above will happen for at least 24 hours.

[rockyman]

Hey, Christy...that's a huge picture file (525kb)...my opinion is anything over about 50k should be hotlinked instead of posted as an image...Thanks!

[HurricaneHunter914]

If only the center was under the convection right now. We could of had Alberto.

[BayouVenteux]

I am not about to try to speculate on where this "potential system" will go in 4-6 days, but one thing I will join the argument on is this trough coming down. We here in LA have been hot and dry for weeks and supposed to be for the next week. We are into the second week of June and models always seem to over-play these summer time troughs dropping down into the gulf states and making there way all the way down to the coast, especially a week away. It is something we have to wait and see and watch for the trends.

Oh, they're dropping alright, but the orientation and position of the last couple have done nothing but set up some light convection/low POP activity with -- and this has been our local NWS discussion's mantra since last summer -- most of the energy focused well to the north of the area. On top of that, the ridge/trof position puts us time after time in the dry northwest flow. Occasionally a maverick MCS or two will dive south-southeastward out of the plains, but by the time they hit the Gulf Coast, they've pretty much rained themselves out, either because of lack of the daytime heating or the warm, dry air in place has proved too much to overcome.

[Opal storm]

Any chance a new low could form underneath the convection east of the Yucatan or has that been ruled out?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

That is my point. Will most of the energy pass us by to the north and leave whatever system this becomes meandering in the gulf?

[rjgator]

The consenses of the 18Z models looks to show a West Coast Florida hit.http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/consensus/fcst/archive/06060818/44.html#track

[george_r_1961]

Any chance a new low could form underneath the convection east of the Yucatan or has that been ruled out?

I would think it is possible.

[gatorcane]

hey guys and gals just signing in - looks like alot of convection still south of Cuba and in the NW Caribbean - do we have any signs of a center forming there?

I noticed the 11pm TWO has become very vague lately - I think the NHC is not precluding the possibility of a center forming under the deep convection to the NE of the "center" now over land.

[meteorologyman]

SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND PORTIONS OF CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS.
THIS ACTIVITY IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR EASTERN YUCATAN. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
AT THIS TIME...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A LITTLE
MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT...IF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES AWAY FROM LAND WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

[meteorologyman]

Restating "SLOW DEVELOPMENT...IF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES AWAY FROM LAND WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO."

[boca]

I've been away the whole day from the board nice blowup south of Cuba ,but low over the Yucatan. Is that a correct assumption.